Predictions for Chinese National Games

[Powell]

It's still some 3 weeks away, but since there's not much to talk about trackwise at the moment, what do you expect from the last big track competition of the year? I think we are going to see PBs (or at least SBs) by most of the Chinese athletes who are well-known internationally (I expect a SB by Liu Xiang as well), as well as some major breakthroughs - maybe not quite on the 1993/1997 scale, but better than in 2001. The Chinese didn't send much of a team to Helsinki, but I believe they've been saving it for October.

[tafnut]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

>The Chinese didn't send much of a>team to Helsinki, but I believe they've been saving it for October.<<

That's so . . . Chinese. Until they engage the rest of the world on a regular basis, they can't be ready for 08. I will be very surprised (pleasantly so) if they 'shock' us with world-class results, but maybe in a few events they can.

May I be a contrarian (or maybe it's not) and say that at least in track in 08, they will not be the factor many think they will be, even relatively speaking. It's better for track if they are a big factor, but I just can't see the infrastructure. If they had an EG attitude (sans the PEDs) they would crush everyone.

[Powell]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

>>May I be a contrarian (or maybe it's not)
>and say that at least in track in 08, they will not be the factor many think
>they will be, even relatively speaking. It's better for track if they are a big
>factor, but I just can't see the infrastructure. If they had an EG attitude
>(sans the PEDs) they would crush everyone.

I don't think they'll dominate all T&F, but I reckon they'll improve to the point where in events where they're now a factor (i.e. placing in the top 8 or thereabout in global championships), they'll be winning medals, and in some cases golds. I see it happening in women's long distances and throws, as well as all walks. Then there's Liu Xiang and a couple of other athletes can challenge, too. I'd say 8-10 medals looks like a realistic goal at the moment.

[kuha]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

I predict we'll see the women run times like 8:06 and 29:31. HA HA HA, HEE HEE HO!! How RIDICULOUS! Everybody knows those times are impossible now and will be so for another 15 or 20 years! Someone must have put LSD in my tea this morning...

[Powell]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

We won't see an 8:06, since 3000 meters is no longer a chanmpionship distance :-)

[kuha]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

BUT, if this was the equivalent of '93, we'd see them go thru the 3k mark in 8:06 en-route to a 13:58 5k... %-)

[Powell]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

That would mean a really slow last 2k ;-)

Speaking of 5k, though, I wouldn't be shocked if that record got broken by the Chinese next month. It's still by far the weakest of the women's WRs.

[slowcoach]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

>I predict we'll see the women run times like 8:06 and 29:31. HA HA HA, HEE HEE
>HO!! How RIDICULOUS! Everybody knows those times are impossible now and will
>be so for another 15 or 20 years! Someone must have put LSD in my tea this
>morning...


So if Paula Radcliffe gets the 10k record, as she claims she can, we will all know...

It didn't take long for a thread about Chinese athletics to turn to PEDs, and now someone has complained about it, it'll probably stay up for 300+ posts.

To try to bring the thread back on course, the Chinese did quite well in Athens without engaging with the rest of the world, though their 32 golds are across all sports.

I expect they'll be happy with 10 or 15 medals in T&F, and to top the medal table overall.

As regards October, there could be another revolution (in the world lists).

[polevaultpower]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

I remember somebody asked last year about the Chinese medal hopes in the pole vault, and I thought no way...

But I saw 2 of their top girls jump at Harry Jerome, and I was REALLY impressed. Both were stud athletes with a TON of potential. I think they'll continue to do well over the next few years.

[kuha]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

"So if Paula Radcliffe gets the 10k record, as she claims she can, we will all know..."

In terms of your implication, NO. As we all know, the '93 marks were utter aberrations. They did not mark the beginning of some new era in women's WRs, they simply stand there in the record books as unlikely and unblievable. A full dozen years have gone by, so--we'd have to presume--some "natural" progression will have taken place, so that if someone like Radcliffe did get the 10k mark, we could accept it. I do not accept the '93 marks as valid in any way. You can read "drugs" into that, "short track," "castrated men" [ouch] or whatever you want...

[SQUACKEE]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

im not sure a castrated man could run 8:06

[26mi235]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

Well, the Chinese, like the Russians, have a LOT of high-level gymnasts to use as a base for finding vaulters.

[tafnut]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

>Well, the Chinese, like the Russians, have a LOT of high-level gymnasts to use >as a base for finding vaulters.<

Which hasn't helped the Japanese or Romanians too much.

[Powell]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

Does anyone know where to find the website of the upcoming Chinese National Games? I tried googling, but didn't find anything useful.

[Andrea_T]

Re: Predictions for Chinese National Games

If Huina Xing competes then she may run good times. I thought she ran well in Helsinki over both 5k & 10k despite apparently not being in top form. If only she had a little more confidence and better tactics, she could have medalled (Maybe take it out hard with 800 to go..)
Chunxiu ran well for 5th in the Helsinki marathon and has a 2:23 best this year, so she could do well. We may be looking at some of the youngsters though to make big improvements: In Yichun back in april Bao won the 10k in 32:43:71 and she is still only 19. 2nd and 3rd place was 32:55. I wouldnt be surprised with a 2 min improvement from one of two of these women to mid 30's.