What happens to T&F if the Avian Flu hits?

[26mi235]

What happens to T&F if the Avian Flu hits?

It would depend on the severity -- A 1918 level would suspend a lot of things and would likely leave gaps in the top level, as the 1918 variety hit young, healthy males pretty hard.

Have event planners (TJ?) started to think of any contingency plans?

[bad hammy]

I just got done watching 'The Day After Tomorrow' (about a bit of a problem related to global warming). All in all, we do not plan well for disasters, either locally or nationally or worldwide. If the bird flu takes off like the 1918 flu, we have more to worry about that T&F meets.

That said, my guess is that the lucky ones will continue to compete and spectate, and the unlucky ones will have more important things to worry about.

[utkvol80]

Track and field continues in Asia where the epidemic is already in progress. What have those nations done to continue the sport, besides massacre 1,000's of birds?

[OwenSamuela15]

Off all the running sites, trackandfieldnews.com undoubtedly has the most die hard fans of the sport. I make that statement reflecting this topic.

The Avian (Bird) Flu is predicted to be worse then the Spanish Flu of 1918. I am going to relate numbers from 1918 to 2005 and use the United States as an example. 28 % of Americans were infected by the Influenza Epidemic (1918). Approxiamately 675,000 died and the U.S. population was 103 million at the time. Globally, the mortality rate of the 1918 virus was 2.5 percent. The Avian Flu mortality rate thus far is over 50 percent. There are only 3 possible vaccines for the Avian Flu with the front runner being Tamiflu active ingredient oseltamivir phosphate. Tamiflu is produced by Roche in Switzerland. As of the end of September the United States had only purchased 2.2 million treatments and it takes 2 successful treatments to kill the virus. Recently the United States approved around 5 billion dollars spending on possible vaccines (ie. Tamiflu, Relenza etc...). The effectiveness of Tamiflu is still not known but currently estimated at a little over 50 percent effective.

A conclusion will be made from the previously mentioned statistics. If the current United States population is roughly 300 million and roughly 25 percent become infected in relation to the 28 percent infected in 1918 then 75 million will be the number of infected in the United States. We obviously do not have enough treatments for that many infected people but I will pretend like we do. If the 50 percent effectiveness of Tamiflu holds true then we are looking at roughly 35 million people remaining infected after failed treatment. Keep in mid that this is assuming that all infected people have access to Tamiflu or Relenza for example. If the predicted mortality rate of over 50 percent holds true on the remaining infected population, we are looking at roughly 17 million deaths in the United States alone.

I know that was a lot of number crunching and speculation, but if this epidemic comes to fruition, then what we are looking at roughly 17 million deaths in the U.S. alone. With that in mind, I don't think that anyone will be thinking about track and field, we will be more concerned with burrying grounds for the masses.

[26mi235]

Tamiflu (and Resultan (sp?) are both flu medications, not vaccines. There are also flu vaccines (which there were not in 1918). These vaccines are not specific to the H5N1 avian flu that is evolving. These current form is not too easily transmitted from birds to humans and much less transmissable from human to human; however, flu viruses are rapidly evolving organisms that are quite prone to mutation because they do not have the full DNA/RNA "check" -- ask one of the several doctors that post here to a more accurate characterization.

I would presume that there will be a lot of quarentine if it does become both highly transmissiable and dangerous (we might expect mutations that allow human transmission to diminish the virulance -- quickly killing the host is not usually a good way to continue propagation).

[OwenSamuela15]

Tamiflu (and Resultan (sp?) are both flu medications, not vaccines. There are also flu vaccines (which there were not in 1918). These vaccines are not specific to the H5N1 avian flu that is evolving. These current form is not too easily transmitted from birds to humans and much less transmissable from human to human; however, flu viruses are rapidly evolving organisms that are quite prone to mutation because they do not have the full DNA/RNA "check" -- ask one of the several doctors that post here to a more accurate characterization.

I would presume that there will be a lot of quarentine if it does become both highly transmissiable and dangerous (we might expect mutations that allow human transmission to diminish the virulance -- quickly killing the host is not usually a good way to continue propagation).

26mi,
I can appreciate your pedantic nature but you are incorrect in stating that Tamiflu is not a vaccine; Tamiflu is a vaccine as well as a flu medication. I am well aware of the differences between the previous H1strain and the presently threatening H5N1 strain as well the effect that each has on the human body. I was not attempting to give a biology lesson. I was however, making a comparative statistical analysis.
You are completely correct by mentioning quarantines. Governments around the world have been focusing on ways to deal with the Avian Flu if it reaches the masses. One universal focal point is devising a plan that possesses the capability to quarantine whole cities or whole sections of cities. It's a scary thought. In a way it seems like a movie.
I was hoping to make a point that would show the insignificance of Track and Field or any sport for that matter in contrast to this threatening monster.
Keep in mind, I love Track and Field!

p.s. I am not of an intense pedantic nature and make grammatical and occasionally factual errors when I chat in forums (I probably made a few in this posting although I paid particular attention for you). Because you seem to be pedantic (If you weren't, you wouldn't have tried to correct me although it was incorrectly) I will point out your errors for your future benefit, LOL.
a.) "quarentine" is spelled quarantine
b.) you wrote "These current form is not too easily transmitted" - that can be corrected many different ways; my suggestion "This current form is not easily transmitted"
c.) "transmissable" is spelled transmissible
d.) "transmissiable" is spelled transmissible once again
e.) "virulance" is spelled virulence

Just having a little fun as many have had with me. Best regards!

[unclezadok]

What will happen? I hope I'm wrong, but I think we may lose a couple of national record holders in the 100-110 age group.

[trackstar]

Track and field continues in Asia where the epidemic is already in progress.

Actually, the only "epidemic" is among the bird population, not humans. The handful of human deaths have occurred among people directly dealing with birds, and there are no recorded cases as of yet where a human infected another human.

That's the funny thing about the paranoia regarding this flu -- people are terrified of a disease that does not actually exist. It COULD mutate into a human-to-human disease, and that will be very dangerous, but at this point, it is still theoretical.

I think another previous poster was correct in pointing out medical advances that have been made since 1918. I'd bet this pandemic, if it ever actually occurs, will not be nearly as devastating as 1918 because science will allow us to tackle the problem quicker. Think about it -- in 1918, viruses had not even been discovered yet. We're light years ahead of that now.

[SDavis]

Re: What happens to T&F if the Avian Flu hits?

[quote="26mi235"]What happens to T&F if the Avian Flu hits?

Well, I think Leonard Byrd becomes a gold medallist at that point.

[trackstar]

No, anybody named "Byrd" will be the first to go. As will any member of the Oregon Ducks.

[Honusonthesound]

Scary stuff, no doubt. So far, it seems as though inter-species transmission is likely controllable 'till the mutation process starts changin' the rules. 'till then, we're likely out of harm's way. Not so fer our avian friends. I'm more'n a bit concerned 'bout one of my all-time faves, Daffy Duck. Then there's Donald 'n his progreny. Thank goodness we got 'em captured on celluloid.

[JRM]

Avian flu hype is just that -- hype. The media loves misinformation and hysteria, since it sells papers. Same thing happened when the threat du jour was rogue nations developing nuclear weapons. The issue is not that it isn't a possible threat, but rather that the likelihood of it being this mega disasterous threat is extremely small.

The media thrives on a culture of fear. Natural disasters are the rage of the day in this department. Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go prep my house for the Big One, which (since Katrina) has been reported to be coming any day now!

[DrJay]

From dictionary.com:

vac·cine ( P ) Pronunciation Key (vk-sn, vksn)
n.

A preparation of a weakened or killed pathogen, such as a bacterium or virus, or of a portion of the pathogen's structure that upon administration stimulates antibody production or cellular immunity against the pathogen but is incapable of causing severe infection

Tamiflu is an antiviral antibiotic, not a vaccine.

[utkvol80]

Track and field continues in Asia where the epidemic is already in progress.

Actually, the only "epidemic" is among the bird population, not humans. The handful of human deaths have occurred among people directly dealing with birds, and there are no recorded cases as of yet where a human infected another human.

That's the funny thing about the paranoia regarding this flu -- people are terrified of a disease that does not actually exist. It COULD mutate into a human-to-human disease, and that will be very dangerous, but at this point, it is still theoretical.

I think another previous poster was correct in pointing out medical advances that have been made since 1918. I'd bet this pandemic, if it ever actually occurs, will not be nearly as devastating as 1918 because science will allow us to tackle the problem quicker. Think about it -- in 1918, viruses had not even been discovered yet. We're light years ahead of that now.

Yes, an epidemic as far as birds are concerned, that's I what I f..... meant! I heard today on NPR that bird flu has been around since 1997, and how many people have died from it? In the last 8-9 years, it has yet to evolve into a virus transmitted among humans. Evolution is a slow process, but for those who embrace intelligent design, this virus might have been designed only for birds. So if the virus does not evolve into one harmful to humans does that mean intelligent design has legitimacy? At any rate, we, the West, should have been more worried about this virus before now. It has become important only as it bears down on the West. So far as it was limited to Asia, it was an Asian problem, so let the Asians deal with it. Like I said, track and field continues in Asia.

[26mi235]

From dictionary.com:

vac·cine ( P ) Pronunciation Key (vk-sn, vksn)
n.

A preparation of a weakened or killed pathogen, such as a bacterium or virus, or of a portion of the pathogen's structure that upon administration stimulates antibody production or cellular immunity against the pathogen but is incapable of causing severe infection

Tamiflu is an antiviral antibiotic, not a vaccine.

\]

Thanks, Dr. Jay, but I think most of the other comments he made about my post we on the mark -- I will try to be more careful in the future.