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  • Contest results

    It's pretty much accepted that the real experts do not fare well at these little contests, right?

  • #2
    Re: Contest results

    I hope you were being ironic. ONLY experts can win contests that require you know literally thousands of facts. Championship history, injuries, illnesses, recent results, recent training - there are so many variables (plus access to 'inside' information) that you cannot stumble into winning. The biggest problem is that most experts pick with their hearts, because they know so much they have emotional attachments to certain athletes, instead of the facts. Look at Riedel. Many experts picked him to win, despite recent recents results, because he's always found a way to win before. But this year he wasn't in top form. Garry Hill, Ben Hall, could easily win every contest if they picked by the facts they know.


    • #3
      Re: Contest results

      Not that he'll necessarily win... But stats man Dan Lilot is the current leader. There is no longer a chance for anyone to get perfect score. Onmyway was the last person to lose his/her possible perfect score.

      I hope everyone is enjoying the contest because we're having a great time with it. Tyree's loss today was a big blow for a lot of players but it seemed a lot of people picked him so the change in score it caused were pretty minimal.


      • #4
        Re: Contest results

        I should have a perfect score, I can't believe Devers let me down, and Murofushi


        • #5
          Re: Contest results

          I'd have had a perfect score if I'd bothered to turn in an entry.

          Would I lie?

          Actually, I won a T&FN travel bag back in the mid-80's in one of their prediction contests, and have entered many times since then and never won diddly squat. And too busy this year to "study up" to put together my "perfect score" entry.

          Good observation about the T&FN editors predicting "heart" over seasonal performance (facts) a lot of the time. That's been my shortfall- I've put together my predictions based strictly on performance trends and variables a lot of the time, while other people go on "well every time a big meet comes around athlete X always comes out of nowhere", and you know what?- a heck of a lot of the time they're right! And that's the main reason I don't get another travel bag (or subscription or whatever).

          By the way, my T&FN travel bag zipper is starting to rip out from cramming inside too many green books, red books, purple books, blue books, stopwatches, water bottles, sun block, bananas, peaches, cookies, binoculars, ATFS annuals, IAAF scoring tables and my wife's 'science fiction paperbacks for when I'm bored during the dumb meet'.
          About time to win another bag. Athens. Next year. Count on it.


          • #6
            Re: Contest results

            In accordance with T&FN's sunshine policy I'm posting my picks to the public so you can audit my entry.

            Point Value Event Sex Athlete
            20 800 W Maria Mutola (Moz)
            19 400 W Ana Guevara (Mex)
            18 1500 W Süreyya Ayhan (Tur)
            17 400H M Felix Sánchez (DR)
            16 TJ M Christian Olsson (Swe)
            15 1500 M Hicham El Guerrouj (Mor)
            14 4x4 M United States
            13 4x4 W Russia
            12 TJ W Tatyana Lebedeva (Rus)
            11 400 M Tyree Washington (US)
            10 4x1 M United States
            9 10000 M Kenenisa Bekele (Eth)
            8 Steeple M Stephen Cherono (Qat)
            7 5000 W Berhane Adere (Eth)
            6 110H M Allen Johnson (US)
            5 HJ W Hestrie Cloete (SA)
            4 Dec M Tom Pappas (US)
            3 Hep W Carolina Klüft (Swe)
            2 JT M Jan Zelezny (CzR)
            1 PV W Yelena Isinbayeva (Rus)


            • #7
              Re: Contest results

              I've received some requests to post my picks for the contest. Nothing special went into the reasoning. I believe that one has to just trust your gut feeling.

              20 800 W Maria Mutola (Moz)
              19 400 W Ana Guevara (Mex)
              18 TJ M Christian Olsson (Swe)
              17 400H M Felix Sánchez (DR)
              16 4x4 M United States
              15 Steeple M Stephen Cherono (Qat)
              14 1500 M Hicham El Guerrouj (Mor)
              13 10000 M Kenenisa Bekele (Eth)
              12 110H M Allen Johnson (US)
              11 TJ W Tatyana Lebedeva (Rus)
              10 Hep W Carolina Klüft (Swe)
              9 400 M Tyree Washington (US)
              8 1500 W Süreyya Ayhan (Tur)
              7 4x1 M United States
              6 4x1 W United States
              5 50kWalk M Robert Korzeniowski (Pol)
              4 HJ W Hestrie Cloete (SA)
              3 HJ M Stefan Holm (Swe)
              2 100 M Bernard Williams (US)
              1 100 W Kelli White (US)


              • #8
                Re: Contest results

                I have 13 points now. Let the mocking begin. Sad, really.


                • #9
                  Re: Contest results

                  I'm up to 8 points. I almost didn't enter because I feared that they might post all the scores. I've got big points on the US 4x1 and 4x4 team, though. I don't suppose anybody else picked those teams to win. ;-) Oh well, somebody has to finish last and it may as well be me.


                  • #10
                    Re: Contest results

                    Anyone have Perdita? Another NR. So much for sending a team with no medal expectations. That's a gold, a bronze and 2 NRs. 27 person team I think.


                    • #11
                      Re: Contest results

                      >Anyone have Perdita? Another NR. So much for
                      >sending a team with no medal expectations. That's
                      >a gold, a bronze and 2 NRs. 27 person team I

                      There was one person who picked Felicien and picked her for his/her 16 point pick. Now that's faith.


                      • #12
                        Re: Contest results

                        Well, now that I've shocked myself and actually done pretty well at this thing, I suppose some of you might actually be interested in my picks. Seriously, I figured I'd be dead last at this point. :-)

                        No doubt, in the contest where they are actually giving prizes, I'm probably doing much worse.

                        It'll be tough to catch Dan and Ben, but here you go:
                        Point Value Event Sex Athlete
                        20 400 W Ana Guevara (Mex)
                        19 800 W Maria Mutola (Moz)
                        18 4x4 M United States
                        17 1500 M Hicham El Guerrouj (Mor)
                        16 TJ M Christian Olsson (Swe)
                        15 400H M Felix Sánchez (DR)
                        14 110H M Allen Johnson (US)
                        13 4x1 M United States
                        12 100H W Gail Devers (US)
                        11 1500 W Süreyya Ayhan (Tur)
                        10 10000 M Kenenisa Bekele (Eth)
                        9 Steeple M Stephen Cherono (Qat)
                        8 HT W Yipsi Moreno (Cub)
                        7 Hep W Carolina Klüft (Swe)
                        6 HT M Koji Murofushi (Jpn)
                        5 SP M Kevin Toth (US)
                        4 100 W Kelli White (US)
                        3 TJ W Tatyana Lebedeva (Rus)
                        2 800 M Yuriy Borzakovskiy (Rus)
                        1 400 M Tyree Washington (US)
                        "Run fast and keep turning left."


                        • #13
                          Re: Contest results

                          I stink! Now even Garry Hill is ahead of me! Where are those razor blades?