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Another Shot (!) at a USA Pro Track League [Crouser WR]

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  • Originally posted by gh View Post
    sick or not, Crouser's consistency was amazing: 5 throws in a span of 8.75"
    Was it just our perspective, or did he line-drive all of his throws? Sure didn't seem like much of an arc on the ones we saw.

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    • WOW. Felix prepared!! 22.59.

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      • Well, I honestly didnt expect that from Felix! Much faster than I imagined. The 400m field is crowded, but, assuming she stays healthy, at least top 6 at trials again doesn't seem too far off.

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        • Originally posted by ATK View Post
          Well, I honestly didnt expect that from Felix! Much faster than I imagined. The 400m field is crowded, but, assuming she stays healthy, at least top 6 at trials again doesn't seem too far off.
          She seems pretty intent to only run the 200.

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          • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
            She seems pretty intent to only run the 200.
            Did she say she is going for the 200 instead of the 400m? If so, I'm a bit less confident on her chances of making the team.

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            • Depends on exactly what you mean by depth.

              I extracted IAAF data down to 18.50 to see where Fayetteville stands in competitions where at least three USA females competed.

              Indoors

              There are only two competitions where that has occurred, yesterday and Portland OR, 2016.

              Fayetteville ranks second in number of throwers over 18.50 behind Portland, which had 4. However, Portland only had one thrower, Michelle Carter, over 19m, compared to three in Fayetteville.

              If you compare the mean distances of the top three throwers, Fayetteville is leaps and bounds ahead with 19.54 vs 18.90.

              Outdoors

              We have more throwers at 18.50+:

              Hayward Field 2016, 6
              Sacramento 2017, 5
              Hayward Field, 2015 5
              Bislett Stadion 2015, 4

              The mean of top three and number over 19m:

              Hayward Field 2016, 19.35 (3)
              Sacramento 2017, 19.58 (3)
              Hayward Field, 2015 19.26 (1 - Carter 20+)
              Bislett Stadion 2015, 18.93 (1)

              Overall

              Fayetteville is only the third time that three throwers have exceeded 19m in the same competition and the only time indoors.

              It has the highest top three mean of indoor competitions but falls 4cm short of Sacramento 2017 as the deepest SP competition of all time.

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              • Originally posted by ATK View Post
                Did she say she is going for the 200 instead of the 400m? If so, I'm a bit less confident on her chances of making the team.
                I'd be more confident she'll make the 200 team than the 400. She's shown tactical 'idiosyncracies' in the 400, whereas her 200s are solid as a rock. And today's efforts show she's still got the native speed.

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                • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                  I'd be more confident she'll make the 200 team than the 400. She's shown tactical 'idiosyncracies' in the 400, whereas her 200s are solid as a rock. And today's efforts show she's still got the native speed.
                  Interesting, I see her having more room to make mistakes in the 400m still have time to make up for it, especially later in the race with her usual strong 2nd half.

                  But to be clear, I dont feel confident in her getting top 3 in the 400m. I do feel optimistic about her getting top 6, which essentially "locks in" 2 more Olympic medals (mixed and regular 4x4). If she only runs the 200m and ends up gets 4th or 5th, a relay spot if more in question (though she is Felix so she'll probably be selected anyway)

                  So IMO, she has a better chance of 6th in the 400m than 3rd in the 200m

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                  • Síofra CLÉIRIGH BÜTTNER (IRL) finished second in the W800, setting a new NR of 2:00.58, besting the ancient 2:00.98 run Nadia Power, a whole 4 days earlier in Torun!

                    BÜTTNER's previous best was 2:02.46 in 2018 and her outdoor best is only 2:01.67 from 2019.

                    It's not only the top 2 Irish that are burning up the track, as we see that 8 out of the top 16 alltime indoor times have been run this year. This includes the Nos. 3,4 and 5 times run in Dublin in the same race, on the same day that BÜTTNER set her record in Fayetville.

                    Like many (mostly) male Irish athletes, she joined the ranks of Villanova's track team and graduated in 2018. Here's an article from last year about her time in USA and transition to professional running.

                    https://www.fastrunning.com/running-...-america/28331

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                    • I was encouraged by Felix's run today. I think she has a better chance making the team and medaling in the 400m than the 200m, so hopefully the former's where she ends up. 22.6 speed at this point of the year bodes well for her over the longer distance.

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                      • I did think Felix would run fast, not quite 22.59, but was looking at 22.7, based on her 150m from last year and the fact that this track is very fast. Also, consider someone like Rebacca Haase has run 22.8 this year, you would expect Felix to be faster than her.

                        I think we discussed the 200 or 400 before. Paradoxically she will find it easier to make the US team over 200 but will find that event tougher in Tokyo. The 200m will have SMU & DAS, who ran 21.7 & 21.8 in the last real season, and both on the ascendance. It also looks like Elaine Thompson is now injury free. Schippers remains a question mark, but can never be discounted. So I think Felix would need to be at her very best over 200m. However, in the 400m it looks like we have lost SMU, there is still a small question mark over Naser's participation - and she may have had disrupted preparation - then after that its 49.5 for the other women at best.
                        Last edited by Wiederganger; 02-22-2021, 09:30 AM.

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                        • There are two 400h not only likely to make the team, but the top two overall. If she makes the team in the 400 but not the 400 but is close they can use her in the relays; is the mixed 2x2x400 early and if so would that make much of a difference?

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                          • On top of lots of athletes not choosing to ever run indoors, the 200m event itself is run so infrequently now, it's hard to make a comparison. Which is why when a top elite athlete does decide to run the event, they tend to shoot up the world lists (Torrance 96...VCB 05...SMU 21...).

                            But what we can say about Felix's run is that the time is right on the cusp of making an Olympic final, and in fact would have gotten her into every World Championship final outdoors, bar 1993, 1999 & 2015. So hypothetically, if she qualifies for Tokyo in this event, then on paper, she doesn't have to run much faster to make the final. Getting a medal is a totally different ball game though. But this time is a really good competitive time to open her season with.

                            Personally, I think she is crazy not choosing the 400m if the rumours are correct, but what the hell do I know!

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                            • Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post
                              Personally, I think she is crazy not choosing the 400m if the rumours are correct, but what the hell do I know!
                              She's 35.
                              She starred in the 200 at an early age; the 400 came later.
                              When the hoe-down is wrapping up, dance with the one that brung ya.

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                              • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                                She's 35.
                                She starred in the 200 at an early age; the 400 came later.
                                When the hoe-down is wrapping up, dance with the one that brung ya.
                                Is it true though? The greats who have doubled usually seem to lean towards the longer distance later in their career Michael Johnson is a good example. Should Bernard Lagat look to the 1500m again? (though distance running is of course different than sprinting)

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