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  • Day 2 Evening Session Outcomes

    MLJ qualifying

    Henry Frayne jumped in Group A and finished 14th overall with a 7.93, only 3cm off the top 12 necessary to make the final. I think he didn't look BAD, he just looked HEAVY, much like he has all season.

    In my preview, I debated whether to say he'd struggle to make the top15 or top20 and went with top20 but I didn't count on the USA jumpers fucking up big time. So he made the top20 without Coach Bourne being in Tokyo with the jumper leads but apparently, Coach Barber, husband of Kelsey-Lee, was there and used the red hot javelin tip instead to get Frayne back to his season's 7.90 range.

    He's 31 so there's no reason why he couldn't get back to decent 8m jumps but whether he will want to keep going is another thing. I did expect him to push up towards 8.50 after his 2018 CWG heroics but sadly injury intervened.

    M100 Heats

    Rohan Browning ran in the final Heat 7, needing to finish top 3 or 3 fastest to advance. As one of the "pundits" he discussed in his post-race interview (yeah, probably not), I said he's in with a chance to make the top three but would need to treat it as a final and be ready to run a PB. And guess what? He did just that!

    A magnificent run of 10.01 (+0.8) much like his beautifully balanced AUS champs final resulted in an adjusted 10.05. That adjusted time is better than his 10.10-10.11 adjusted limit during the AUS domestic season Discussion, showing he's peaking at the right time (thanks, Coach Murphy!).

    The raw time is better than Shirvo's 10.03 (-0.1) 4th place in the 1998 CWG final but in adjusted terms, his 10.05 is still behind Shirvo's 10.03 and Patrick Johnson's NR of 9.96 (+1.8) which both adjust to ~10.02.

    Now, he needs to back up with an equivalent or better time to make the final. That's much harder but I would not be surprised if he runs the equivalent of a 10.00-10.02 in adjusted terms.

    MDT Final

    Matt Denny sure knows how to humiliate me with my inadequate prognostications. I said he had an 80% chance of a new PB in the 66s and finish 5th or 6th but he was having none of that. He delved into the other 20% to set a new PB of 67.02 (the only thrower to do so) and finished 4th. Aaaah, that's the kind of wrong that makes me happy and the TFN rankers very, very, very sad.

    I was wrong about the top 2 being Stahl and Ceh, with Ceh fucking up big time to finish 5th and letting Sverige get their first OG 1-2 since 1948! Stahl took the win as expected but Petterson stood firm with 67.39 in second and Weisshaidinger with 67.07 taking the bronze. This left Denny only 32cm from silver and 5cm from bronze.

    Denny, that bastard, performing better than I expected and making the TFN rankers look biased against the southern hemisphere. Aahh well, who knew being wrong could make you feel so good.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by El Toro View Post
      Aahh well, who knew being wrong could make you feel so good.
      Not you usually lol

      Comment


      • Originally posted by jlt View Post

        I can’t see a natural leader in sf 1
        Well Pete might be the best of the Aussies to be able to deal with a slow pace early..

        Good luck to him tomorrow - can't wait to see how it goes.

        Comment


        • Day 3 Morning session

          WHT qualifying 0910 JST / 1010 AEST


          No AUS throwers but NZLs Julia Ratcliffe is throwing in Group A and NZLs Lauren Bruce in Group B. Both have a chance to make the final if throw up to their best.

          W3000SC Heats 0940/1040

          Another distance event with a full complement of three steeplers, all looking to be first 3 in their heat of three or next 6 fastest overall.

          Georgia Winkcup is running in Heat 1 with a current PB of 9:37.43 and SB of 9:39.27 with 11 steeplers with better SBs than her. At least that leaves her ahead of two in the 14 person field.

          Genivieve (LaCaze) Gregson is in Heat 2 with PB of 9:14.28 and SB of 9:17.81 with 4 runners with better SBs and 11 over the three heats. Apart from being the fastest Australian this year, she is the most experienced having finished 9th in the Rio OG final, 10th in the Doha WC final in 2019 and 12th in the London WC final in 2017.

          Amy Cashin in Heat 3, the last, sits as the middle AUS steepler with 9:28.60 PB and SB with 7 runners in her heat with better SBs.

          Gregson is obviously the class of the field and should proceed to the final without too much trouble. For Winkcup and Cashin, they'll have the chance for their friends and family to watch them sweat like pigs on national televisions. It doesn't get any better than that.

          WLJ qualifying 0950/1050

          AUS NR holder Brooke Stratton (7.05) starts in Group A and needs to hit 6.75 or be in the top 12. Since she finished 6th in the Rio OG final with 6.74, she came 6th in the London WC in 2017, second in the CWG 2018 and struggled through injury and thyroid problems.

          She seems to have emerged from her troubles and jumped 6.84 (+1.2) to win Nationals this year. While her entire season has not been of equal quality, she seems to perform best on the big stage, so she should make the final as part of the top12 as long as she jumps 6.55 or better.

          WSP Final 1035/1135

          Adams and Weschke of NZL will be worth watching for AUS enthusiasts. It's likely gold will require 20m but only Lijiao Gong (CHN) and Jessica Ramsey (USA) have throw that this year. However, can anybody discount the big Kiwi unit and her aura of success? She has a SB of 19.75 placing her =4th on the annual list.

          M400 Heats 1045/1145

          Alex Beck starts in Heat 1 and needs to finish top 3 or in the next 6 fastest overall. He's run a new PB of 45.72 this year at the age of 29 but I don't like his chances of getting past the heat. Most of his runs have been over 46s since his PB run back on 13 March. It's not impossible, but 45.82 was the slowest time qualifier in the Doha WC.

          Steve Solomon has his chance in Heat 4 but this 2012 OG finalist has not run faster than his 46.82 and 46.90 in the heat and final of Nationals. That's a long way from his PB of 44.97 set in the London OG semi, the same year he finished 3rd in the WJC in 45.52.

          All in all, I hold out no hope for either athlete. However, if anybody cracks 46.5, I'll drink an extra beer tomorrow night while watching in-form Aussies Starc, Browining, Clay and Bol. You can't say fairer than that.

          Comment


          • Before my butler tucks me in for the night, I want to say that Matt Denny with his 4th and 67.02 has now achieved the highest placing and best distance by an AUS thrower in OG history.

            He ousted AUS NR holder Benn Harradine's 9th and 63.59 final performance in 2012, as well as WC standards of Harradines's 5th in 2011 and Denny's own 65.43 in Doha 2019.

            Denny only turned 24 in June this year, so I can see lots of room for improvement. Just to reinforce his big competiton in still air performance, I'll leave you with this comparison of SB vs OG results:

            Stahl 71.40 68.90 -2.51 Mean 65.92 (6 throws)
            Petterson 69.48 67.39 -2.09 Mean 65.40 (5)
            Weisshaidinger 69.04 67.07 -1.97 Mean 65.88 (4)
            Denny 66.15 67.02 +0.87 Mean 65.89 (6)

            Denny's series:

            65.76
            65.53
            65.94
            65.00
            66.06
            67.02

            Comment


            • It would be good to see some in-form athletes like Denny flying to Europe for some DL comps before returning home.

              If they have to come back to a 14-day quarantine, it would be nice to see them come back with some extra pocket money and ranking points.

              Comment


              • Very good morning too. Two PBs in m400. Stratton and Gregson sneaking through...

                Comment


                • Tonight should be a fun session - one of the most exciting for our male athletes in some time.

                  - Starc striving for a medal in the HJ.
                  - An Aussie guy in the 100 sf with nothing to lose and sub-10 to gain
                  - Three Aussies in the 800 semis

                  And a bonus of Liz Clay in the hurdles semis too!

                  Though the swimming has been great, it's time for athletics to be on our TV screens in prime-time.

                  Comment


                  • Great to see so many PBs so far - Buckingham, Bol, Browning, Denny, Beck, Solomon, hopefully a few more in the coming days.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by AS View Post
                      Very good morning too. Two PBs in m400. Stratton and Gregson sneaking through...
                      Day 3 Morning session Outcomes

                      WHT qualifying

                      No AUS throwers but NZLs Julia Ratcliffe made it through from Group A but NZLs Lauren Bruce in Group B got nowhere near her PB&SB of 74.61 finishing well down the order with 67.71. Pressure, eh? 71.68 was required to make top-12, so any AUS throwers need to forget about 70m being a benchmark anymore, the event has moved on.

                      W3000SC Heats

                      Georgia Winkcup in Heat 1 finished 13/14 in 9:59.29 ~20 seconds down on her current PB of 9:37.43 and SB of 9:39.27.

                      Genivieve (LaCaze) Gregson in Heat 2 finished 6th with 9:26.11 to become a time qualifiers. Her experience showed, running closer to her PB of 9:14.28 and SB of 9:17.8, than Winkcup.

                      Amy Cashin in Heat 3, finished 11th in 9:34.67 and was the closest to her PB (9:28.60) in sub-optimal conditions.

                      I said Gregson should proceed to the final without too much trouble but she was the final time qualifier! In 2016 and 2017, she qualified by place and in 2019 by time with 9:27.74. The slowest time qualifiers in the last 4 global editions were:
                      2021 9:26.11
                      2019 9:30.01
                      2017 9:35.78
                      2016 9:30.54

                      Another event that seems to have moved on, so please reset your expectations.

                      WLJ qualifying

                      AUS NR holder Brooke Stratton (7.05) finished only 8th in Group A with 6.60 but it was enough to make 12th place and the final. Her Group was the only one to gain any non-autoQ performers, including Stratton who had her best jump in Round 1.

                      I said, she should make the final as part of the top12 as long as she jumps 6.55 or better. I was wrong again, because Quanesha Burks (USA) jumped 6.56 but did not proceed. Shame on me, I will have another beer for penance.

                      WSP Final

                      Val Adams takes Bronze with 19.62 behind Gong with a new PB of 20.58 and Saunders with 19.79. Maddison-Lee Weschke of NZL continues to be a revelation with her 4th PB in a row of 18.98 to finish 6th. Her PB streak, improving from 18.32 in 2019, was 18.40, 18.47, 18.65 and now 18.98. If you want to know what peaking looks like, you can't go past this.

                      M400 Heats

                      Alex Beck in Heat 1 runs another new PB of 45.54 to finish 6th. That's his second for the year but he misses out on a time qualifier by 3 hundreths! Ouch. I didn't like his chances of getting past the heat but I'm surprised that time as I noted above that 45.82 was the slowest time qualifier in the Doha WC.

                      Steve Solomon had his chance in Heat 4 and he took it with both hands, running a new PB of 44.94, trimming his ancient best of 44.97 set in the 2012 OG semi.

                      I didn't think either athlete would proceed, given their season to date. However, they did crack 46.5, so I'll drink an extra beer tomorrow tonight. Never let it be said that I don't keep my word (or set easy targets).


                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Vault-emort View Post
                        Tonight should be a fun session - one of the most exciting for our male athletes in some time.

                        - Starc striving for a medal in the HJ.
                        - An Aussie guy in the 100 sf with nothing to lose and sub-10 to gain
                        - Three Aussies in the 800 semis

                        And a bonus of Liz Clay in the hurdles semis too!

                        Though the swimming has been great, it's time for athletics to be on our TV screens in prime-time.
                        Yes, there's no new AUS athletes appearing tonight, so we can focus on 6 in-form athletes. And I can't remember the last time I said that for a single session.

                        HJ is volatile but Starc is likely to finish 3rd-6th in the 2.33-2.35 but who knows? Progression is 2.19 2.24 2.27 2.30 2.33 2.35

                        Browning erased his 2019 shambles with a fine Heat run. I think he can back it up as long as he focuses on execution like he did in Lane 1 in the heat.

                        However, this time, he's in lane 6 between the two Nigerians, Femi Ogunode (now QAT) on the inside and Enoch Adegoke (stil NGR) outside. That heightens the potential for distraction. For the viewers, the contrast in muscularity between them will be an interesting sight!

                        Apart from Trayvon Bromell, the rest of the field are all pretty evenly matched on SBs, so execution will be key to which of them gets through. Well, that and the wind as Michelle-Lee Ahye found out yesterday losing a finals berth by 1/1000th to an athlete who didn't have to run into a headwind...

                        If the recovery theory for middle distance runners wearing the new shoes is right, then we should see all three equal or better their heat runs if their semis go for time. With so much uncertainty about what people can really run this year and the cutthroat first two and two fastest, there's no room for error. Whatever happens, it will be entertaining. I wouldn't be surprised if a new AR still doesn't make the final.

                        Clay's target is to run a PB because she doesn't have much of a chance to make it through based on this year's times. However, a stuff up in the field can happen but she can't benefit from that if she's running 12.8s.

                        Comment


                        • Before we hit Semis, and update on M800 and most sub-1:45s by Aussie

                          Bol 6
                          Deng, Riseley 4
                          Rowe 2
                          Doubell, Bourke, C.Hunter 1

                          On average of top 5 (must all be under 1:46, so we lose Doubell, Bourke), it's

                          Bol 1:44.62
                          Deng 1:44.73
                          Riseley 1:44.80
                          Rowe 1:45.14
                          C.Hunter 1:45.36
                          Mathews 1:45.60
                          Cremer 1:45.63
                          Renshaw 1:45.75
                          McCarthy 1:45.79


                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by AS View Post
                            Before we hit Semis, and update on M800 and most sub-1:45s by Aussie

                            Bol 6
                            Deng, Riseley 4
                            Rowe 2
                            Doubell, Bourke, C.Hunter 1

                            On average of top 5 (must all be under 1:46, so we lose Doubell, Bourke), it's

                            Bol 1:44.62
                            Deng 1:44.73
                            Riseley 1:44.80
                            Rowe 1:45.14
                            C.Hunter 1:45.36
                            Mathews 1:45.60
                            Cremer 1:45.63
                            Renshaw 1:45.75
                            McCarthy 1:45.79

                            I think you're gonna need to update those numbers!!

                            Comment


                            • Shameful lack of appreciation for Bol's heroic semi final win on Oz TV this morning, with all the reporting on Browning and Starc's near misses instead.

                              Comment


                              • Plenty of disrespect in the mOG800 thread too.

                                The word "Bol' does not appear on any of the three pages.


                                Looking forward to the W1500 heats this morning. Georgia Griffith will need luck given her lack of racing in 2021, but hopeful Hull and especially Hall will have no problems.

                                Riley Day has a good chance of finishing top 3 in her 200m heat too and should progress if she's at her best, which recent info suggests she is.
                                Last edited by Vault-emort; 08-01-2021, 11:47 PM.

                                Comment

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