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  • Day 4 Evening Session Outcomes

    WPV Qualifying

    Nina Kennedy in Group A has apparently had injury problems (unknown to me but not Channel 7) since her domestic season, so only cleared 4.40. Interestingly, the ABC said she in top form a short while ago: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-...etes/100308756

    Elizaveta Parnova in Group B only cleared her opening height of 4.25.

    The minimum height required to make the final was 4.55, lower than the 4.60 of Doha WC, so it was there for the taking by the Australians.

    W200 Semi-Finals

    Riley Day in Heat 1 ran a significant new PB of 22.56 to finish 4th in her heat and 12th overall.

    I said that she was in this for the experience, to not finish last, and to set a PB in championship conditions and will probably finish half a second behind the qualifiers.

    Again, I was wrong. She did everything I suggested she should, but did not equal her maximally assisted PB. Rather, she smashed it by 2 tenths, so only finished 3 tenths behind the slowest time qualifer of 22.26. Vault-emort noted that the last AUS runner to do this in an OG was the magnificent Ms Boyle.

    The good thing is that she is back on track to somewhere you would expect her to be based on her junior performances. She's now sitting at #8 AUS all-time performer but still behind other 21 year olds, Freeman 22.25, Boyle 22.45 and Hewitt 22.52.

    She is however, equal with 21 year old Lauren Hewwitt's 22.56 (-1.9!!!) but still with some way to go to match MGT's 22.33 (-2.6!!!!!) at age 23. Hopefully, she can avoid regular injuries and become one of the AUS alltime greats but in today's environment, she will need sub-22 to hope to match Boyle's achievements.

    M400 Semi-Finals

    Steve Solomon in Heat 2 of 3 did not make the necessary top 2 to Q, running 45.15 to finish 3rd behind the 44.92 2nd of Christopher Taylor (JAM). This left him 13th fastest overall, and well behind the 44.62 NR of Bonevacia (NED) the slowest of 2 time qualifiers.

    I said he'd need a new PB much closer to the NR of 44.38 to proceed, and indeed, he was 0.53 slower than Bonevacia who was only 0.24 slower than Darren Clark.


    Comment


    • Day 5 Morning Session Preview

      MTJ 0900 JST / 1000 AEST

      No AUS since Henry Frayne in 2012 and before him, Rohan Browning's coach, Andrew Murphy, in 2004.

      M1500 Heats 0905/1005

      Another event with a full complement of three, all looking to finish in the first 6 in their heat or be in the next 6 fastest.

      Ollie Hoare in Heat 1 has his newly minted PB of 3:32.25 leaves him in 6th place, so all's good right? Well, there's 11 other guys who've run their PBs this year, including fastest man Timothy Cheruiyot (KEN) at 3:28.28, so maybe not. He's also up against the pasty-skinned Norwegian Ingebrigtsen. Which one, you say? The good one. Again, which one? The 3:30 guy, not the 3:31 guy. What's his name you @^##*&er? Filip.

      Jye Edwards in Heat 2 up against only 10 guys who've run their PB this year but only 4 with faster SBs than him but 7 with faster PBs, including defending champion Matt Centrowitz Jnr. Shout out to Kiwi Sam Tanner who's also in this heat.

      Stewart McSweyn in Heat 3 as one of 9 with PBs this year not including creaky old Nick Willis of NZL. He's up against the younger Ingebrigtsen. Which one, you say? Sigh, the good one under 30. Again... This is the really, realy good one, you know the really young one Jakob, who's the only other runner in this heat with a sub-3:30 SB.

      WJT Qualifying 0920/1020

      Unusually, a field event with a full complent of three athletes, all needing to hit 63.00 or be top 12 to make the final.

      McKenzie Little in Group A only has 11 athletes with a better SB than her, including Polish superstar Maria Andrejczyk sitting more than 10m past Little.

      Kelsey-Lee Barber in Group B also has 11 athletes with better SB than her, including fellow AUS, Kathryn Mitchell, who only has 5. While both athletes have substantially better PBs, Barber's technique so far this year has not matched her strength. She looked fantastically strong during the domestic season but that strength never directed itself anywhere near the optimal angle required for distance. She had a poor qualifying in Doha but pulled out a miracle performance to win. I'll say, that's not going to happen this time.

      Kathryn Mitchell has different problems because she is, well, old at 38. She's only 3 years out from her 68.92 PB but hasn't come within 5m of it in subsequent seasons despite her maintaining generally better technique than Barber.

      While it's good that AUS has three competitors, I can't, with any confidence, see any proceed, unless there's a down year like 2019 where 2m less than normal allowed throwers through. I don't think that will happen this year unless these three have been hiding something. Fingers crossed for others to stuff up.

      W400 Heats 0945/1045

      Bendere Oboya is the only one representative in this event, running in Heat 2 of 6. She's looking to finish first 3 or be next 6 fastest. She has 4 with better SBs than her, so will need to run at her very best to proceed. The big question is, "has she been running flat in the domestic season due to the crap standard?" Hopefull, the answer is yes and she runs 51 low on her way to a one second PB in the semis.

      WLJ Final 1050/1150

      Brooke Stratton in the second shitty morning LJ final! On paper, she will struggle to make the top 8 to get 6 jumps but jumping in the morning throws form out the window. I am guessing, and not particularly well informed guessing that she finishes 7th or 8th.

      M200 Heats 1105/1205

      Surely you jest, sir? Nobody wants to tire the poor darlings out by doubling.

      M400H Final 1220/1320

      Not in an OG since 1996, baby, and never in a WC.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by El Toro View Post
        The big question is, "has she been running flat in the domestic season due to the crap standard?" Hopefull, the answer is yes and she runs 51 low on her way to a one second PB in the semis.
        The answer was no.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by El Toro View Post
          McKenzie Little in Group A only has 11 athletes with a better SB than her, including Polish superstar Maria Andrejczyk sitting more than 10m past Little.
          But only 3m past Little in qualification, where everybody in the field except these two under-performed.

          Comment


          • Day 5 Morning Session Outcomes

            M1500 Heats

            Well, there was no repetition of the high speed heroics in the M800 with the fastest Heat at 3:36.00.

            Ollie Hoare in Heat 1 was successful with 3:36.09 for 3rd in a blanket finish that had the first 7 athletes within 3 tenths of each other 3:36.00-36.29! Sometimes you win the lottery but only if you've got a ticket and Hoare's had the ticket all year.

            Jye Edwards in Heat 2, the slowest at 3:40+ was only 7 tenths behind a 6th place Q finishing 7th with 3:42.62. Due to the dawdling nature of the Heat, there were no time qualifiers so Jye and Kiwi Sam Tanner missed out.

            Stewart McSweyn in Heat 3 got a big Q for finishing 3rd in 3:36.39. The field did not finish as tight ast Heat 1 but still the first 7 finished within 8 tenths. Kiwi Nick Willis was a time qualifier in this heat in 7th with 3:36.88 [edit:] ensuring his dream of making his 100th Olympic final is not yet dashed.[/edit]

            [edit:] Australia has never had three athletes in an OG 1500 final and 1956 is the only other OG with two finalists in the form of Landy (3rd) and Lincoln (12th). In the modern era (post-Elliot) we have only had two finalists in total, Crouch in 1976 (8th) and Gregson 2016 (9th). Hoare and MsSweyn have the talent to get through the next stage for a repeat of the 50s high achieving.[/edit]

            WJT Qualifying

            Unusually, a field event with a full complent of three athletes, all needing to hit 63.00 or be top 12 to make the final.

            McKenzie Little in Group A set a PB of 62.37 on her first throw to finish 2 in her Group behind Andrejczyk. It's good that she hit that first throw as she ran out of steam later with 58.94 and 53.57.

            Little has been a curiosity for me, throwing badly when expected to do well and throwing well after showing not much. After showing huge promise as a junior, her USA sojourn dragged her performances down and she has only recovered in the last two years. She's now 24, so hopefully she has more improvement left.

            Kelsey-Lee Barber in Group B also qualified with 2nd place 62.59 SB on her third throw, a distance further than her 61.08 in Doha WC qual. I didn't watch her throw say I can't say whether her technique is back in the groove or no but I will note her first two throws were 51.27 and 53.82.

            Kathryn Mitchell threw 61.85 on her second and only valid throw and finished 7th to also qualify, giving AUS an unprecedent three athletes in an OG final, in fact we've never even had two but we did have two WC finalists (Mickle & Mitchell) in 2013.

            I said I wasn't confident any would proceed unless there was a down year like 2019 where 2m less than normal allowed throwers through. Well guess what?
            Position DohaWC TokyoOG Difference
            1 67.27 65.24 -2.03
            2 65.29 63.07 -2.22
            3 63.48 62.59 -0.89
            4 62.87 62.37 -0.5
            5 62.43 62.31 -0.12
            6 62.15 62.06 -0.09
            7 62.13 61.99 -0.14
            8 61.74 61.96 0.22
            9 61.17 61.95 0.78
            10 61.08 61.85 0.77
            11 60.99 61.68 0.69
            12 60.9 60.94 0.04
            W400 Heats

            Bendere Oboya in Heat 2 of 6 was one of out big hopes in the sprints after her high quality debut in Doha. However, she finished 5th in her Heat in 52.37, replicating her domestic season performances. I said she would need to run to her very best to proceed, but sadly. Let's hope she can get a lot more exposure to international competition to draw her down towards 50 or beyond.

            WLJ Final

            Brooke Stratton finished 7th with a solid 6.83, her second best jump of the season behind her 6.84 at Nationals in April. That's a staggeringly good performance in a morning final where only the winner, Mihambo, set a SB and Spanovic (4th) and Sawyers (8th) were the only other two to get within 10cm of their SB. I guessed 7th or 8th, place, so there you go.


            El Toro
            Senior Member
            Last edited by El Toro; 08-03-2021, 08:07 AM.

            Comment


            • I guess the 1500 semis will be just a formality?

              Comment


              • Originally posted by El Toro View Post

                I didn't watch her throw say I can't say whether her technique is back in the groove or no but I will note her first two throws were 51.27 and 53.82.
                Technique certainly wasn't' back in the first two. Watch the replay though - you have never seen her as animated as after the distance on her third throw came up

                Originally posted by LopenUupunut View Post
                I guess the 1500 semis will be just a formality?
                It appears El Toro has had a quiet word with the authorities in Tokyo and cancelled the semis

                or he's gotten extra drunk extra early today...

                Comment


                • Day 5 Evening Session preview

                  M110H Heats 1910 JST/2010 AEST


                  Nicholas Hough in Heat 3 needs top 4 or next 4 fastest to make the semis. Holloway, Shubenkov and Parchment seem to have the first three places wrapped up and probably Czykier or homeboy Takyama will battle for 4th. Hough is likely to finish 6th in line with his WC results of 5th, 6th and 6th from three outings.

                  MSP qualification 1915/2015

                  No AUS thrower but there's a couple of Kiwis. Can't quite remember their names, though...

                  MPV Final 1920/2020

                  Kurtis Marschall's plight seems hopeless given he sits behind 8 guys with better SBs than him and is equal with 3 other guys at 5.80. However, he has improved his speed and strength and is on much bigger poles but has not yet hit his groove.

                  He is a championship performer that is way overdue for a new PB. I think he should be able to get into the 5.90s and that would give him a chance for a medal. Anything can happen in PV so let's see if that happening is Marschall.

                  M5000 Heats 1956/2056

                  David McNeil is in Heat 1 needing first 5 or next 5 fastest. He's well down the list of SBs and PBs but it's hot and many of those are cool weather performances and the same applies to Heat 2. Even allowing for the Tokyo sauna he will probably need to run within 10s of his SB/PB of 13:12.82 off a slower pace, as is traditional in Heat 1, to make it through as a time qualifier.

                  Morgan McDonald and Patrick Tiernan start in Heat 2 of 2. McDonald, like McNeill set his PB this year but it's also down the list as is Tiernan's. Both guys will need to position themselves and kick perfectly, to make top 5 or more likely set themselves up for a tartget time after Heat 1.

                  Australia has never had an OG medallist in this event and these three will continue that tradition. If any of them make the final that will be a bonus.

                  WHT Final 2035/2135

                  No AUS.

                  M200 Semi-Finals 2050/2150

                  No AUS.

                  W200 Final 2150/2250

                  No AUS.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by LopenUupunut View Post
                    I guess the 1500 semis will be just a formality?
                    Originally posted by Vault-emort View Post
                    It appears El Toro has had a quiet word with the authorities in Tokyo and cancelled the semis

                    or he's gotten extra drunk extra early today...

                    Hey! You guys aren't supposed to read my posts let alone understand them! Isn't anything private anymore...

                    And no, I'm not drunk but that Korsakoff's a bitch.

                    Comment


                    • Rambling, incoherent and plain wrong statements in M1500 heats report above changed to rambling, incoherent and mostly correct statements.

                      Hat tip to LopenUupunut and Vault-emort for exerting editorial control.

                      Comment


                      • Stratton becomes second Aussie woman with two top 8 OG LJ finishes... 7th and 7th vs Boegman's 5th and 7th (with an Olympics in between!). Stratton jumped further (6.74 & 6.83 vs Boegman 6.73 & 6.73). Of course, Bronwyn Thompson the highest placer with her 4th (and 6.96).

                        Comment


                        • Tamsyn commentating on the 5k just now, "He's gotta be careful not to step on his shoulders". Top that, MacAvaney!

                          Comment


                          • The McAvaney kiss of death, "The Australian is 5th from the back, looking comfortable and covering all the moves" just as the field starts to stretch.

                            Tamsyn tops it with, "I like the way he's covering Katir, ready to move with him." Just before Katir moves around the field up to the lead group without the Australian.

                            Bruce was not to be denied, "If he holds onto 10th place he's got a chance to get through." Just before he gets passed..

                            It's a hard game, but Roy and HG now have some competition.

                            Comment


                            • And that's why I'm watching the 7+ feed... am enduring some Jane Fleming madness, but it still pales in comparison. Although Jane thinks McSweyn comes from Kangaroo Island...

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by AS View Post
                                And that's why I'm watching the 7+ feed... am enduring some Jane Fleming madness, but it still pales in comparison. Although Jane thinks McSweyn comes from Kangaroo Island...
                                Well, he does have impressively long tendons!

                                Comment

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