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Aussie Results/News 2021


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  • Originally posted by El Toro View Post

    Well, exactly. He's pretty much gone from 2 1/2 years of training sessions straight into an OG Final. He even struggled at Nationals for the same reasons - see what I wrote then

    He hasn't jumped against anybody of note since the All Star Perche in France on 24 Feb 2019 and outdoors, nothing since the Memorial van Damme on 31 AUG 2018. That's 3 years and that's a big hill to overcome, no matter how good your training is.

    Kennedy was injured after her good domestic season and Liz was never a big chance to be in the mix, unlike the other two.
    Yeah I am not really blaming Paul Burgess, I think he is just going to take a lot of heat.


    • Originally posted by El Toro View Post
      He placed himself well, pushed the pace, did everything right but it was not to be. In the end, he still kicked the arse of Tuka, Amos and Murphy, so he, JR and jlt should be happy as.
      One of the few middle-distance events at the top level in which an Australian rep did absolutely nothing wrong tactically. He had to start that long sprint at 400m, but that obviously was to the benefit of others behind him.

      4th here was an awesome achievement and I hope Peter and all involved are justly proud.

      I imagine he will be going to Europe to earn a bit of pocket money before returning home. Good luck to him over there.


      • Originally posted by Vault-emort View Post

        Yes. They didn't predict a medal for Australia in the women's 4x200m freestyle relay which is bizarre as they are the red-hot gold medal favourites.

        They also include a few medallists who have withdrawn from the Games (eg Coco Gauff in tennis).

        Still, both AP and Gracenote predict the largest Australian Gold/Total medal-hauls in some time:

        12/40 Gracenote

        17/45 Associated Press

        Previous tallies:

        8/29 Rio
        8/35 London
        14/46 Beijing
        17/50 Athens
        16/58 Sydney
        We've matched the golds from the AP prediction but still 7 lower than the total medals. The team has really delivered.
        Last edited by rhizobium; 08-05-2021, 08:31 AM.


        • Originally posted by rhizobium View Post

          We've not matched the golds from the AP prediction but still 7 lower than the total medals. The team has really delivered.
          With two more golds today in K2 & Skateboard, we've now hit the 17 gold prediction. Imagine another 7 medals may not be impossible - perhaps even another gold.


          • We might even get a couple in athletics (Dec, WHJ??)


            • Day 7 Morning Session Outcomes


              Ash Moloney was in 2nd place after Day 1, and stays there after 8 events with only the JT and 1500 to complete this evening.

              The expectation was that Day 2 performers like WR holder Mayer could pull him back but Moloney was having none of that, starting the day with a 14.08PB over the 110H. He still lost points to Mayer, but only 23.

              In the DT, there were no PB heroics and nobody in the field threw over 50m, so his 44.38 kept him in the hunt and was not much down on his June PB of 45.11.

              I asked whether there was a PB lurking in the PV and he jumped 5.00 which would have equalled his 2019 PB if he hadn't jumped 5.05 in Cairns three weeks ago! He's never come close to 2 consecutive 5m jumps before, so it looks like next year will be even better.

              Moloney has done pretty much everything up around his best and has not faltered. Others just haven't been able to cope in this competition and Moloney is on track for a podium finish and a new NR, AR. He's 221 points behind Damian Warner (CAN) and 94 points ahead of Pierce LePage (CAN), maintaining the CWTH dominance of the podium.

              Kevin Mayer is lurking in 4th place but he's 140 points behind Moloney but has superior JT to all of them in the order of ~190 pts at his best - but he hasn't thrown all year. He's also theoretically a better 1500 runner by about ~120 pts, so he's not out of the medal hunt but he's been injured so he's unlikely to throw or run near his best.

              There won't be the usual Day 2 Mayer steamroller, but he is still capable of improving his position. How close can he get to the top 3? Tune in in a few short hours!

              Cedric Dubler unfortunately NHd in the PV, so is out of the competition. I'm assuming that the hamstring problem really dragged him back here.

              WHJ Qualification

              Nicola McDermott in Group A and Eleanor Patterson in Group B, both hit 1.95 for the autoQ. In fact in opposition to my prediction that actually getting the auto-Q would be unlikely, the entire list of jumpers made the final the same way. The last time this happened in a global champs was Rio16 when 17 hit a low Q height of 1.94.

              With so many jumping well in the morning, there's hope for a quality final but a hint of caution. In Rio16, after such a deep qualifying result, only 4 athletes made 1.97, the winning height!


              • Day 7 Evening Session Preview

                M20km death march 1630/1730

                Kyle Swan and Declan Tingay are the two AUS representative. Based on PBs and SBs, they have no chance but form rarely holds in sauna-like conditions in front of international judges.

                WPV Final 1900/2000

                No AUS

                MDEC 1915/2115

                Down to just Ash Moloney and the nailbiting finish. Can he break 60m in the javelin? What will Mayer throw and how many places can he jump? Will the medals come down to the 1500?

                W4x400 Heats 1925/2025

                AUS is listed in Heat 1 but without nominated athletes. They've got no chance, so the question is will they be a DNS?

                M1500 Semi-Finals 2000/2100

                Ollie Hoare goes in Semi 1 along with NZL's Nick Willis, and needing first 5 or next 2 fastest. On paper, it seems unlikely that he will get there but that depends on the nature of the race. Will ghey go out fast like the W155 did or will it be the traditional bludgefest.

                Stewart McSweyn is in Heat 2 and, realistically, is head and shoulders above Hoare in terms of likelihood to proceed. He's got the raw speed and the necessary tacktical nouse. Barring argy bargy disasters, he should make top 5.

                M400 Final 2100/2200

                No AUS.


                • Link to scoring chart for Ash Moloney in the Deca thread:

                  T&FN formchart 1. Kevin Mayer (France) 2. Damian Warner (Canada) 3. Niklaus Kaul (Germany) 4. Pierce LePage (Canada) 5. Garrett Scantling (USA) 6. Zach Ziemek (USA) 7. Maicel Uibo (Estonia) 8. Ilya Shkurenyov (Russia) 9. Thomas Van der Plaetsen (Belgium) 10. Stephen Bastien (USA)


                  • Moloney looked super capable of more clearances after sailing over 5.00. The hand slipping off his pole on his second 5.10 clearance looked to knock the wind out of him. He has soooo much upside.


                    • Originally posted by El Toro View Post
                      Can he break 60m in the javelin? What will Mayer throw and how many places can he jump? Will the medals come down to the 1500?.
                      a) no
                      b) not many
                      c) kind of


                      • Day 7 Evening Session Outcomes [edit: Outcomes come AFTER Preview, numpty]

                        M20km death march

                        Kyle Swan and Declan Tingay were the two AUS representative. I said they had no chance and, despite Tengay setting a PB of 1:24.00, finishing 17th, the world order remained steady, with Swan down in 36th out of 52 finishers and 57 starters. Australia has been spoiled in the walks for 30 years, just not this year.


                        Ash Moloney takes a hard earned BRONZE medal with a new NR AR of 8649. This makes him the first Australian to medal in a global champs and to exceed 8600 points, oh, and also 8500 points which he deemed too demeaning to consider scoring.

                        He was facing the threat of Kevin Mayer's potentially high quality javelin and he indeed suffered due to to Mayer's 73.09 vs his 57.12. That's a loss of 242 points in one event!

                        This jumped Mayer from 4th and out of the medals to 2nd place, pushing Moloney down to 3rd. Pierce LePage, the 3rd place CWTH athlete, was also pushed down from 3rd to 5th due to an equally modest JT. Garrett Scantling of the USA took over 4th place, up from 5th.

                        The 1500 became an important event with Scantling capable of surpassing Moloney, being only 62 points behind. In the end, Moloney ran a 4:39.34 PB (old 4:47.84, 2021), to limit Scantling to a 38 point deficit. If Moloney had only run his previous PB he would have finished 4th by 15 points. Who's the idiot who said the 1500 never matters?

                        I incorrectly stated that Cedric Dumbledore would be a DNF after he NHd in the PV. However, he continued in order to support his teammate and training partner Moloney, including some decent, and critical, pacing in the 1500.

                        I asked, will the medals come down to the 1500? Yes, they did.

                        One of the alltime great OG performances by an Australian.

                        W4x400 Heats

                        AUS in Heat 1 ran a 3:30.61 for some non-qualifying place. I said they've got no chance. Was I right? Of course. 3:29.99 is the slowest relay on Peter Larsson's all time list and that ends up around 1,764th place. I said the question is, "will they be a DNS?", and "Yes" should have been the answer.

                        M1500 Semi-Finals

                        Ollie Hoare in Semi 1 looked much stronger than his heat and finished 4th with 3:34.35 to take an autoQ. Kiwi Nick Willis, in his 11,562nd 1500 race failed to make his 80th (actually 4th) successive OG final.

                        Stewart McSweyn in Heat 2 took the lead and pushed the pace in the later stages to the benefit of the 2 time qualifiers who came from this heat. However, it looked like McSweyn was going to be swamped after losing places in the final curve and into the straight. With 50m to go, he kept pushing and picked off a few tiring runners to finish the last autoQ in 3:32.54.

                        I said, "barring argy bargy disasters, he should make top 5", and he did.
                        Last edited by El Toro; 08-05-2021, 01:59 PM.


                        • Day 8 Morning Session Preview

                          M50km death march 0530 JST / 0630 AEST

                          Willi Sawall walked to 10th place in 3:51:08.0 at the 1979 Race Walking World Cup. Why do I mention this ancient history?

                          Well, Rhydian Cowley, the AUS rep in this event, has a PB of 3:52:58 from 2019.

                          Australia has been spoiled in the walks for 30 years, just not this year.

                          W20km death march 1630/1730

                          Another event with full representation, comprising Jemima Montag, 22nd on PBs, Katie Hayward 28th and Rebecca Henderson 51st.

                          See M50kmW comments.

                          M4x400 Heats 2025/2125

                          No AUS.

                          WJT Final 2050/2150

                          AUS has an unprecedented 3 throwers in an OG and has the most, ahead of CHN with 2 and every other nation with just one. While that is impressive in its own right, I can't see that placings will be equally impressive.

                          The Champion from Doha19, Kelsey-Lee Barber, flirted with disaster in qualifying but made it through with a season best. In Doha, she came through with a great throw on her final throw, but I don't see that happening this time. I wouldn't be surprised if she wasn't the best Australian at the end of the competition.

                          McKenzie Little set a new PB of 62.37 to qualify. I've never known how she will throw when I've paid attention, so she could be anywhere between 56 and 65. How's that for a prediction?

                          The grand dame of AUS JT, Kathryn Mitchell, the AUS NR holder with 68.92, won't come near to that this time. However, I can see her being the best Australian but not by much.

                          Overall, I can't see a medal, but 5th to 9th place for all three is most likely. Prove me wrong and you won't hear me complaining.

                          M5000 Final 2100/2200

                          No AUS.

                          W400 Final 2135/2235

                          No AUS.

                          W1500 Final 2150/2250

                          AUS has two reps in Linden Hall, former NR holder, and Jessica Hull, current NR holder and former, former NR holder. Both are under 4 this year and both showed strength in the previous round, where Hull regained the NR.

                          They are 7th (Hull) and 9th (Hall) on SBs and well behind the likely medallists Hassan, Kipyegon and Muir. Unless something dramatic happens, something in the 6th to 10th range for both.

                          W4x100 2230/2330

                          No AUS

                          M4x100 2250/2350

                          No AUS.


                          • Originally posted by El Toro View Post
                            Rhydian Cowley, the AUS rep in this event, has a PB of 3:52:58 from 2019.

                            Australia has been spoiled in the walks for 30 years, just not this year.

                            I think he was waving at you when he crossed the line in 8th

                            Magnificent effort in these brutal conditions and a PB to boot!


                            • Day 8 Morning Session Outcomes

                              M50km RW

                              Rhydian Cowley comes in 8th place with a new PB of 3:52:01, trimming his previous best of 3:52:58. He was the only person across the field that set a PB.

                              This is probably not surprising when you consider that those two PBs listed are his sole efforts at the distance and the gap between his first on 1 December 2019 and today is 20 months.

                              Cowley was down on the winners and ~4 1/2 minutes from the Bronze position. He battled it out with 5 athletes within a minute of each other from 5-9th place.

                              He's 30 now, so it's not clear if he will continue much longer. An OG 8th in your second go at an event might me hard to beat. Maybe he will walk his 3rd 50k in Paris24...


                              • Originally posted by Vault-emort View Post
                                I think he was waving at you when he crossed the line in 8th
                                I'm used to being an inspiration to all...

                                At least he didn't go the full Kozakiewicz!