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Last edited by Vault-emort; 08-06-2021, 06:14 AM. -
In the 1980 OG, he sent his love to the Russians who'd been jeering him before and during his successful winning jump:
track-field-1980-summer-olympics-poland-wladyslaw-kozakiewicz-to-picture-id81398087.jpg
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Jemima Montag does even better than Cowley with a terrific 6th place in a time of 1-30.39 - her 2nd fastest ever.Originally posted by El Toro View Post
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PLEASE!!!! Your preview tomorrow MUST say Hoare & McSweyn have NO chance of a medal - It's our only hope!Originally posted by El Toro View Post
And please don't talk up Nicola's or Eleanor's chances in the HJ!
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Day 8 Evening Session Outcomes
W20km death march
Jemima Montag, 22nd on PBs at the start of the race finished 6th in 1:30:39,
Katie Hayward, 28th finished 37th in 1:38:11 and
Rebecca Henderson, 51st finished 38th in 1:38:21.
Apparently, a 2/3 success rate in predictions is grounds for mockery of a feeble old man suffering from early onset dementia and dozens of chronic diseases. I'd complain about this untramelled cruelty to my carer, but she'd just beat me again with the iron rod more than she normally does. I'm starting to suspect she's on Vault-emort's payroll...
In the past 20 years, we've had 11 top 20 finishes in this event, including Montag in 10th in Doha19 and two bronze medals in 1999 (Saxby-Junna) and 2004 (Saville). Today, we have one more to add to top 20 finishers.
Montag, 23, Hayward, 21 and Henderson, 20, are all young and potentially have another 2 OGs out to 2028 in which they will be in their prime.
Have I done enough to make anybody think that I really care???
WJT Final
I've only yelled at the TV during two events this OG, the M200, cheering (demanding) DeGrasse onward to his first gold, and the WJT final, screaming at shit technique. I only consider the latter event here.
AUS had a nationally unprecedented 3 throwers in an OG final. While that was impressive in its own right, I couldn't see placings being equally impressive.
However, Kelsey-Lee Barber finished 3rd with 64.56 in Round 6, but this was diminished by being part of one of the worst standard WJT finals since the new specification. She did well to up her SB qualifiying throw of 62.59 in 4/6 throws and threw her best in Round 6, just like her win in Doha19. Her best throw would only have given her 5th place in Doha in similar stadium conditions.
Kathryn Mitchell turned 39 just two weeks ago and the AUS NR holder at 68.92 finished a very respectable 6th with 61.82, her best of 3 legal throws. She has not seen her coach for 18 months due to Covid19 travel restrictions so to achieve this is a credit to both of them.
She is in elite company at age 39 with Barbora Spotáková, 63.08, 64.34 and 65.19 and evergreen Lavernre Eve with 62.77 and 62.11. That's it - the only other 39 year olds to throw in the top 1,678 distances before the OG!
I thought she might end up being the best Australian but prime age Barber scuttled that and she only finished second.
McKenzie Little finished 8th with 59.96, down on her new PB of 62.37 set in qualifying. I said I never knew how she'd throw and now, after watching her closely for the first time, I know why.
You can't plant your drifting front foot a metre (or more) to the left of the javelin and expect consistency, you just can't. The fact that she hasn't badly injured herself is a testament to the quality of her genetic inheritance.
She's a medical student, so working those shit hours doesn't help, especially as she's 25. It's a real shame because she has the best physical talent of these three. I said she'd be between 56 and 65 as sort of a joke, but sadly, she ended up towards the lower end.
Overall, I said 5th to 9th place with no medal but the poor standard of competition allowed Barber to get 3rd and the others in 6th and 8th, giving me another 2/3 prognostication.
If you think Barber's medal wasn't a surprise, let's look at some data - of the last 18 global finals since 1997, Barber's 3rd place throw ranks 15th. Normally, I wouldn't worry about this but Barber should have won this given her amazing power levels.
I said earlier this year that she looked much stronger but none of that was going through the javelin. In this competition she got a small part of it into the javelin, but nowhere near what she should have.
While I don't have a PhD or a paid coaching job, I'd rate them as follows:
Barber - 70m+ power, high-50s technique, mid-60s talent
Mitchell - low-60s power, high-60s technique, mid-60s talent
Little - mid-60s power, high-50s technique, 70m+ talent
Mitchell clearly made the most out of what she had, like she has for over a decade. She wins my closest to potential award for this competition.
I also like the fact that I limited myself to 1/4 of a full-strength post.
W1500 Final
Linden Hall, former NR holder, finished 6th in a new PB of 3:59.01.
Jessica Hull, current NR holder at the start of the competition, finished 11th in 4:02.63, but lost her NR.
When Sifan Hassan only gets third behind an OR, you know you've been amazing to get anything close to that. Both athletes showed their strength in mid-field struggles and peformed really well.
Before today, neither athlete had even made a global final and now they are up there with former AUS NR holders, Jenny Orr (8th Munich72) and Marg Crowley (5th Atlanta96) in placings and both ran faster than either.
I said something in the 6th to 10th range for both, but shame on me that only one finished in that range and one a single place outside. I think I should stop posting with such wild, incompetent statements...
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Day 9 Morning Session Preview
WMarathon is the only event in the morning.
In a field of 88! apparent starters, AUS has three reps. None of them have run a marathon this year and only 35 of the field have. In a hot sweaty environment, who knows WTF will happen.
The AUS reps are:
Sinead Diver with 15th best PB of 2:24:11
Lisa Weightman, 21st with 2:25:15
Ellie Pashley, 34th with 2:26:21
I predict that one will do better than expected, on will do OK and one will have a shocker but they will finish in the top 88 as long as they are not DQd or DNF.
I think I'm starting to get the hang of this prediction lark, so I think I will send off that job application to Astrology Weekly. Well, that is, if they didn't already know it was on it's way.
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Come on El Toro be brave.Originally posted by El Toro View Post
Put names to your oredictions 😂😂😂😂Comment
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The OZ girls (sorry ladies) did great to get all 3 in the top 8.Originally posted by El Toro View Post
But with the distances thrown in Tokyo, NZ's Tori Peeters will be feeling more gutted than ever at being not selected by our still distance running centric selectors.
Our selection criterion for athletics is having a realistic chance of making top 16 yet they select distance runners who never had a realistic chance of making top 16.
Peeters with her results in distance and results against the OZ girls, the Tokyo results not only confirm she had a realistic chance of making the final 8, but an outside chance of getting bronze.Comment
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Who did she lose her NR, which she set in the semis, to?? Don't tell me you have fallen for the Hull/Hall confusion which afflicts so many?Originally posted by El Toro View Post
As a result of this sloppy error, I have ordered Nurse Ratched not to change your incontinence pad for the rest of this weekend.Comment
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It's easy to remember which one is Hall... She doesn't sound like she's mainlining helium...Comment
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Great effort from Sinead Driver to run through field into 10th. Wonder if she'll be back in Paris at 47yo...Comment
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100% agree, Tauriki. Australia tried the hardarse approach but it didn't really work. It's much better to take everybody who qualified, because it's hard to predict who will perform well and, in this case, how the rest of the field goes.Originally posted by Tuariki View Post
One thing that people forget is that selection for smaller nations like AUS/NZL is not so much about THIS competition, it's team membership as a recruitment tool. If younger athletes see that it doesn't matter how hard you work to qualify, you still don't get rewarded, the sport cuts it's own throat in the long run.
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Here's the short list of sub-2:30 athletes ahead of her current age of 44-5-21. Data in age order.Originally posted by AS View Post
Time Athlete Country Place Location Date Age(yy-mm-dd) 2:29:40 Tatyana Pozdnyakova UKR 1 Los Angeles 02-Mar-03 46-11-26 2:29:00 Tatyana Pozdnyakova UKR 2 Warwick-Providence 13-Oct-02 46-7-9 2:28:34 Catherine Bertone ITA 6 Berlin 24-Sep-17 45-4-18 2:29:43 Joyce Smith GBR 1 London 09-May-82 44-6-13 Comment
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Day 9 Morning Session Outcomes
WMarathon
The Australian Masters marathon team competed at the OG this year as part of the OneAthletics initiative.
Sinead Diver, 44, finished 10th in 2:31:14 SB
Ellie Pashley, 32/33, finished 23rd in 2:33:39 SB
Lisa Weightman, 42, finished 26th in 2:34:19 SB
There were 73 finishers and 15 DNFs, so the Australians were well up in the field. Benjamin Franklin once wrote a letter praising older women. He must have been talking about marathons. I didn't know he was a distance man.
Day 9 Evening Session Preview
WHJ Final 1935 JST / 2035 AEST
Nicola McDermott is in form and has set two NR of 2.00 and now 2.01. She is one of only 4 athletes over 2m this year, all of whom are competing today. She will need to jump to her best if she wants to grab a minor medal.
Eleanor Patterson, the previous NR holder at 1.99 is coming back from injury and had 3 x 1.96 clearances in a row before her qualifying round jump of 1.95. She is on a roll and should be good for high 1.90s but I can't see a medal unless she is going for a superpeak.
Both are unlikely to top Yaroslava Mahuchikh (UKR) the U-20WR holder and new NR holder at 2.06 and who has jumped 2m, nine times already this season. She is on her way up, she's comfortable in championships, so this is her gold medal to lose.
Mariya Lasitskene (ANA), multi-World Champion, has a 2.06PB but has not had stellar form this year, only clearing exactly 2.00 once each indoors and outdoors. Otherwise she's jumped mid-1.90s.
Vashti Cunningham (USA), like Lasitskene has 2x2m this year but with one of them at 2.02. While she can jump 2m, she isn't a regular like Mahuchikh is or Lasitskene was.
Overall, the gap between Mahuchikh and the AUS jumpers is too great to consider them a threat for gold. After that Lasitskene is a high chance to fail but Cunningham should be able to be competitive for the minor medals.
McDermott to finish 2-4, Patterson 4-5.
W10000 Final 1945/2045
No AUS
MJT Final 200/2100
No AUS.
M1500 Final 2040/2140
Stewart McSweyn is 3 seconds faster on paper than his team mate but I don't think that will make much difference here after two hard working rounds by McSweyn.
Ollie Hoare impressed in the semi-final and made me thinkcould be the man to pass McSweyn if the pace is slow.
While this is an incredibly open field, Cheryiout and Ingebrigtsen seem likely to be 1/2 in either order.
This is a rare 1500 final with only two Africans, both Kenyans! That means no sacrificial lamb to push/pull the pace.
Anything could happen and happen quickly but both AUS runners can be in the mix and one could snag a medal with a bit of good tactics and a lot of luck. Both to end up between 3rd and 7th in either order.
W4x400 Final 2130/2230
No AUS
M4x400 Final 2150/2250
No AUSComment
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