2021 World Results

[Trickstat]

I'm always up for this game.

Locks (sic) right now are

men

Brazier
Cheptegei
USA 4x4
Holloway
Mondo
Crouser
Vetter
Mayer

women

Richardson (100)
SMU (even if Naser runs)
Tsegay (in something!)
USA (4x4)
Rojas
Price
Thiam

USA M4x4

I wouldn't make Brazier a lock. Current favo(u)rite yes but not a lock.

As for Richardson, I will always be reluctant to grant lock status to someone who, as far as I know, has yet to compete outside their home country.

What about Lyles in the 200?

[Atticus]

I wouldn't make Brazier a lock. Current favo(u)rite yes but not a lock.
As for Richardson, I will always be reluctant to grant lock status to someone who, as far as I know, has yet to compete outside their home country.
What about Lyles in the 200?

I can't see anyone but a top-form Amos seriously challenging him.
The video of SR running her 10.72 convinced me. Not the time, the form.
Lyles looked super-rusty in Oregon (but he should still win).

But as Beebee intimated, this is just a fun game at this point of the season.

[jazzcyclist]

As for Richardson, I will always be reluctant to grant lock status to someone who, as far as I know, has yet to compete outside their home country.

That's a good point. For someone who has never been outside the U.S., traveling abroad for the first time can be unsettling in normal times, but even more so this year when she will likely be without her family and coaches for a whole month due to Japan's COVID-19 policy.

[Wiederganger]

I'm always up for this game.

Locks (sic) right now are

men

Brazier
Cheptegei
USA 4x4
Holloway
Mondo
Crouser
Vetter
Mayer

women

Richardson (100)
SMU (even if Naser runs)
Tsegay (in something!)
USA (4x4)
Rojas
Price
Thiam

USA M4x4

I'd like to wait until at least mid-May before saying who is the strongest favourite, as most top European athletes haven't even competed yet. So instead I'll take apart your list 😜

I'm always weary to put Vetter as a favourite: going backwards, 2020 was an amazing year for him, but there was no real pressure. In 2019 he threw over 90m a month before Doha, and lead the Q with 89.35, but then 'only' won bronze in 85.37 behind Peters (inspired and not a predicted win) and WLer Kirt. In 2018 he threw over 91m in Feb; over 92.5m in March & over 91.5 in May, yet 'only' came 5th at the Europeans, a home champs, after again leading the qualifying round. In 2017 he did win gold...but only just, by 16cm to Vadlejch, after throwing a huge 94.44 a month before and again, after leading the Q in over 91m. 2016, when he was up-and-coming, saw him finish an inspired 4th place in Rio, so I do wonder whether he has struggled with the pressure of being favourite?

Mayer is definitely a strong favourite, but I think we all agree the decathlon is the hardest event to complete, it wouldn't be a shock if he DNF or did not win, and his temperament is ever so slightly in question after Berlin & Doha.

I wouldn't put Richardson as strong favourite yet. She has run a startling time over 100m but we saw in 2020 SAFP & Thompson are right there, and though they have yet to really lay their cards on the table, their 2020 seasons are enough to go on.

I'm interested as to why you have placed Thiam as the strong favourite, as opposed to KJT, or, considering KJT? I see them as fairly equal at present. KJT beat her in their last clash in Doha, with a score Thiam has never achieved in a championships; KJT's progression is such that she has been steadily improving each year for the last 5 years, whereas on the other hand Thiam has been at the 6800 level for a while (of course, she had that amazing 7013 at Gotzis in 2017, but that was in perfect conditions).

Interestingly, scoring over 6800 five years out of a six year span, as Thiam would need to this summer, has never been done before, not even by JJK, or Kluft, or Ennis-Hill or any other past great. It doesn't meant Thiam wont do it of course, and she could well be the first, but it's an extremely difficult task. I do wonder what her JT is going to be like too, and whether that elbow is ok. She hasn't thrown a javelin in competition since Doha and although she was fine with the SP this winter, she was fine with the SP in Doha too. While her indoor pentathlon was great, it's only enough to put her as joint favourite with KJT for me.

[ATK]

I'm always up for this game.

Locks (sic) right now are

women

SMU (even if Naser runs)

Without Naser, SMU would be the favorite for the 2-4 double. The schedule isnt even that bad.

[Atticus]

Random results from around the globe, courtesy of TiS newsletter

Brazil
mLJ Samory Fraga 8.23 (1.3)

Columbia
w400 Marileidy Paulino (Dom) 50.36

Provo, UT
mLJ Jeff Henderson 7.87a (0.3)

Greensboro, NC
w100 Barbara Pierre 11.60 (0.3); Veronica Campbell-Brown 11.71 (0.1)

China
wJT Huihui Lu 64.40

Germany
wDT Kristin Pudenz 66.27

[Wiederganger]

I've just read on Twitter Thiam won't do a heptathlon before Tokyo. As her last one was Doha, one assumes she is carrying an injury or something, as you'd think she would not want to wait 22 months between heptathlons.

With KJT also behind due to an achilles - although she says training is going well - will both be underpar come Tokyo, and is it an opportunity for someone else to sneak in?

[TWalsh]

I've just read on Twitter Thiam won't do a heptathlon before Tokyo. As her last one was Doha, one assumes she is carrying an injury or something, as you'd think she would not want to wait 22 months between heptathlon.

I think we better unlock Thiam right now!

[Atticus]

I think we better unlock Thiam right now!

Yikes! Done.
Now watch her show up and win big!

[booond]

I'm always up for this game.

Locks (sic) right now are

men

Brazier
Cheptegei
USA 4x4
Holloway
Mondo
Crouser
Vetter
Mayer

women

Richardson (100)
SMU (even if Naser runs)
Tsegay (in something!)
USA (4x4)
Rojas
Price
Thiam

USA M4x4

Love the instigation of discussion. I'd pick Crouser, too, it's almost an easy choice until you watch WTC 2019 and see how "big" Kovacs and Walsh threw alongside Mr. Crouser. Kovacs has two golds and two silvers in the last 4 big events; he's a good bet right now at the odds.

[Paced]

I wouldn't put Richardson as strong favourite yet. She has run a startling time over 100m but we saw in 2020 SAFP & Thompson are right there, and though they have yet to really lay their cards on the table, their 2020 seasons are enough to go on.

Even if SAFP and Thompson-Herah retired tomorrow I wouldn't consider Richardson the favourite in the 100m, not with Dina Asher-Smith around.

SMU (even if Naser runs)

If this is based on yesterday's run, it's worth noting that SMU had an even faster 400m opener in 2019 - 49.05, the fastest ever before June. That didn't stop Naser from beating her in Doha.

[Wiederganger]

If this is based on yesterday's run, it's worth noting that SMU had an even faster 400m opener in 2019 - 49.05, the fastest ever before June. That didn't stop Naser from beating her in Doha.

This is true, but one has to wonder what the affects of the initial missed test charges, and subsequent appeal going on, are having on her. No matter what our views, she's still human, and it must be playing on her mind whether she will even get to Tokyo. That can't be good for training. I also think Naser was 'lucky' in Doha that she was running inside SMU. Once SMU realised where Naser was and how fast she was running, it was too late to respond, but when she did change gear, she was running Naser down on the home straight and lost by what, just over a meter? Had SMU pushed that bit earlier on the second bend, she would possibly have won. It was a great win from Naser, but certainly not a big winning gap.

[ZazaShoya]

I would definitely never consider a decathlon as locked, more so with Mayer and the uncertainties about his shape. He's got some confidence back lately though, I was rather surprised to see him compete (and eventually win) in Torun considering his full decathlon two months prior. His body doesn't seem to be an issue at the moment, the main one being PV, but once again he's shown great signs towards a full (mental) recovery in this event in Poland, clearing 5.20. The Q mark in the Réunion (8552) would have been enough to medal at the last two WC, and it was done with a 4.65 PV ... with 5.20 he would have been > 8700, a mark nobody has matched in a global championship since Trey Hardee in Berlin (except for him and Eaton).
So no lock here, i'd rather say that Mayer is either champion or DNF. We'll see in Götzis where his opponents are, mainly Kaul after surgery, if he steps up in speed, we could have a match.

[Wiederganger]

We'll see in Götzis where his opponents are, mainly Kaul after surgery, if he steps up in speed, we could have a match.

Kaul posted on Instagram his first post-surgery 75m javelin throw in training. He looked very good.

[Paced]

This is true, but one has to wonder what the affects of the initial missed test charges, and subsequent appeal going on, are having on her. No matter what our views, she's still human, and it must be playing on her mind whether she will even get to Tokyo. That can't be good for training. I also think Naser was 'lucky' in Doha that she was running inside SMU. Once SMU realised where Naser was and how fast she was running, it was too late to respond, but when she did change gear, she was running Naser down on the home straight and lost by what, just over a meter? Had SMU pushed that bit earlier on the second bend, she would possibly have won. It was a great win from Naser, but certainly not a big winning gap.

I agree that the stress of the hearing may well affect her, if she is indeed cleared to complete in Tokyo, but I'm not convinced she truly benefitted from lane assignment. The 400m is essentially a time trial; Miller-Uibo's sole focus should have been on running the type of race that would get her across as fast as possible, irrespective of what Naser was doing. Being in an outside lane from her main rival allowed her to focus on her own race, much like Van Niekerk in 2016. In the end she ran brilliantly, setting a huge PB in the process, but Naser was just better. Had Miller-Uibo been in an inside lane and responded to Naser earlier, she may well have had less in reserve on the home straight and died the same painful death that lost her a medal in 2017 (and almost cost her gold in 2016).

It's also worth bearing in mind that Naser had run two rounds of the mixed 4x400m prior to the individual 400m, so she was not as fresh as Miller-Uibo coming into the final. Miller-Uibo being in superior shape in April/May meant zilch when it came to the race that everyone cared most about.