In praise of Allyson Felix

[Atticus]

[from another thread]

Her individual race competitive record suggests a move to the 400 (bolded), but her average finish there was 2.0. For the 200 it was 1.6.
There has been some water under the bridge since her last Big 200, but the training for the 200 is less 'abrasive' to a 35yo body than the 400. The speed work is very similar, but there's more of it in the 400.

OG 2. 200 22.18 2004
WC 1. 200 22.16 2005
WC 1. 200 21.81 2007
OG 2. 200 21.93 2008
WC 1. 200 22.02 2009
WC 3. 200 22.42 2011
WC 2. 400 49.59 2011
OG 1. 200 21.88 2012
WC 1. 400 49.26 2015
OG 2. 400 49.51 2016
WC 3. 400 50.08 2017

I think she's focusing on the 200 now because

a. it's her signature event, and
b) it's less wear and tear.

I would think she could still run on the Mixed 4x4 with just 200 training.

She's a National Treasure and as such, she has earned special treatment, as long as the high-level fitness is there. This indoor 200 shows she's still got 'it'.

[ATK]

I don't see her focusing on the 200m. I think her ultimate goal is get as many medals at her final Olympics as possible and running the 400m gives her the best chance at that.

If she gets top 6 in the 400m at trials, she leaves Eugene essentially with 2 more Olympic medals (mixed relay & 4x4). In an extreme case, she may run the 4x1 heats as well. Getting top 3 in the 400m will be hard, but if she does, her individual medal chances shoot through the roof (SMU hinting at only 200m and Naser case being fought pretty much make it USA vs Shericka Jackson).

Running only the 200m at trials is too risky. If she doesn't get top 3, she is then relying on her star power to be selected for the relays.

I predict she will either: run the 400m and 200m at trials (most likely) or run only the 400m. ONLY going for the 200m would be a huge gamble, especially after 2016 miss.

[18.99s]

...but the training for the 200 is less 'abrasive' to a 35yo body than the 200.

*than the 400?

[Atticus]

*than the 400?

Yes, thank you.

[Atticus]

I don't see her focusing on the 200m.

Except that's exactly what she said to the guys on the broadcast. Hard to contradict the lady herself on her intentions.

[ATK]

Except that's exactly what she said to the guys on the broadcast. Hard to contradict the lady herself on her intentions.

Maybe I missed this? The 3 times she was interviewed (at the start of the meet, after the 60 & after the 200m) she didnt mention anything about focusing on any specific event this year.

[18.99s]

The 400 is not kind to aging bodies. Felix was 30 years old (+ 9 months) when she won the 400m silver in 2016; has any woman older than that ever medalled in the Olympic 400m? Or at World Championships?

[bambam1729]

The 400 is not kind to aging bodies. Felix was 30 years old (+ 9 months) when she won the 400m silver in 2016; has any woman older than that ever medalled in the Olympic 400m? Or at World Championships?

Olympics
400
Oldest Medalists (>30)
Allyson Felix 2016 Silver 30-270
Irena Kirszenstein-Szewinska 1976 Gold 30-067

200
Oldest Medalists (>30)
Merlene Ottey-Page 1996 Silver 36-083
Pauline Davis-Thompson 2000 Gold 34-081
Carmelita Jeter 2012 Bronze 32-257
Merlene Ottey-Page 1992 Bronze 32-088
Beverly McDonald 2000 Bronze 30-225
Fanny Blankers-Koen 1948 Gold 30-103


World Championships
400
Oldest Medalists (>30)
Jarmila Kratochvílová 1983 Gold 32-196
Allyson Felix Bronze 2017 31-264
Jearl Miles-Clark Bronze 1997 30-335
Sandy Myers Bronze 1991 30-230
Amantle Montsho Silver 2013 30-040

200
Oldest Medalists (>30)
Merlene Ottey-Page 1997 Bronze 37-090
Merlene Ottey-Page 1995 Gold 35-091
Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie 2009 Bronze 33-218
Veronica Campbell-Brown 2015 Bronze 33-104
Merlene Ottey-Page 1993 Gold 33-101
Galina Malchugina 1995 Bronze 32-236
Christine Arron 2005 Bronze 31-333
Carmelita Jeter 2011 Silver 31-282
Susanthika Jayasinghe 2007 Bronze 31-257
Merlene Ottey-Page 1991 Bronze 31-111

[18.99s]

Thanks for the data! At 35 it would indeed be wise to focus on the 200.

[fasttrak85]

If Allyson does the 200 only she will have a hard time making the team and if she scraped by what are her chances of a medal? The 400 is her best shot of being on a podium. Relays are an afterthought.

[18.99s]

If Allyson does the 200 only she will have a hard time making the team and if she scraped by what are her chances of a medal? The 400 is her best shot of being on a podium. Relays are an afterthought.

The outdoor 400m world record for women 35+ is 50.27 (Jearl Miles-Clark). Felix can break that record, but it's a far cry from there into medal territory. And she will have to break that record just to make the US team.

Who are the three women who would keep her off the team in the 200m? If she focuses on the 200m, she'll be in 22.0x shape (or better) by June. Only one active US woman has done that, Tori Bowie, and Bowie hasn't been nearly her best self in a long time.

[Wiederganger]

Can we clarify whether she actually said she is doing the 200m or not? There seems to be some dispute here...?

It doesn't matter which active athletes have kept her off the team in the past, it's about who could possibly keep her out the team this year. (I know your point was who could run faster than 22.0 as well, but Stevens and Prandini did also keep her off the team that year... & on paper, Prandini is in the same 200 form as Felix right now)

But I agree as it stands, the depth at the top in the 200m in the US isn't as high as the 400m right now. However, Sha'Carri Richardson is someone who could quite conceivably beat her this season, based on her brilliant 22.00 from last year and her overall progress these last couple of seasons. Gabrielle Thomas has shown great strength in those indoor 300s, so could well be a danger in the 200 (I'm assuming she isn't moving up to 400?). Torri Bowie is a big question mark in terms of which events she will contest. She may well continue with the 100/LJ, rather than the 100/200. After that, until we see who runs well outdoors, it is hard to find names who we could reliably say are big, consistent performers. As an aside I am really keen to see if Brittany Brown/Anglerne Annelus can improve on their 2019 seasons after virtually nothing/nothing in 2020 though.

The other consideration is that we are seeing more and more often athletes dropping out of the 200m once they make the team at 100m. You can't rely on that, but it's not a stretch to imagine someone like Richardson making the team in the 100m, then drops out of the 200m as a precaution, coz the US trials standard is so high and are so bloody tough.

The 400m does have a group of women who are between 49.5-50.5, so it will be hard to make the team. But paradoxically I think that event will be easier in Tokyo.

I'm not sure looking at who has medaled in which event past the age of 30 really helps. Firstly, 30, 31, 32 isn't the 35yrs & 8months Felix will be come Tokyo, and only one woman has medaled over the age of 35, and that is of course Ottey. Also, all these women's careers are different. Felix has been around at the very top for longer than all of those women bar Ottey. It's also worth noting that in those 95,96 & 97 seasons where she did medal aged 35-36, Ottey was only in sub 22sec form in 95, and only just, and the standard in the 200m in 96 &97 was relatively...sedate. With SMU, DAS, Thompson et al, one imagines sub 22 will be needed for a medal.

Saying all of the above, what is Felix's priority? In recent years Kersee has hinted it's about creating a legacy and getting as many medals as possible, so does she do as ATK says and run the 400m in the hope she will be on the 4x4 and X4x4 and bag two more medals? If she believes deep down she can make the US team in either event, but may not medal individually in Tokyo, then why not go for the 400m and open her medal chances? Similarly, she's at a stage in her career where she is running for her love of the sport, so why not do the 200m as Atticus suggests, that remains her favourite event? But I can imagine she and Kersee have sat down together and discussed it all, and agreed that the 200m is her first love and probably easier to make the team than the 400m, and she wants to go out in Tokyo, not the Trials. But he'll be sure to get her to run a 400m and argue the case to get her into the 4x4 too!

[The Klingon]

Well, hopefully Allyson and Bobby have given this a lot of thought.

[NotDutra5]

Can we clarify whether she actually said she is doing the 200m or not? There seems to be some dispute here...?

Whether this is a conclusive and final answer or not I don't know...it is probably as definitive as we get in February during the indoor season but she did say something paraphrasing that she is "going back to her baby" this year meaning the 200m. This during the meet Sunday.

I think she's got a tougher road in the 400m as far as making the US team at least at the moment. At this juncture I'd be very surprised if she did not qualify for the 200m team.

[Atticus]

Whether this is a conclusive and final answer or not I don't know...it is probably as definitive as we get in February during the indoor season but she did say something paraphrasing that she is "going back to her baby" this year meaning the 200m. .

The comms made it pretty clear that they had talked to her and it's the 200.