In praise of Allyson Felix

[Paced]

From an interview in April 2020:

"While she has made it back to her pre-pregnancy conditioning -- Kersee said he expected her to run lifetime bests in the 200 and 400 meters this season -- at age 34, there's no telling how long her body can stay at this elite level."

She has since run 16.91 (-2.6) to "beat" SMU over 150m in July 2020, 7.28/22.59 indoors this year, and 50.88/22.26 (+2.1) outdoors this year.

While I think running PBs this year may be a stretch, Felix has looked excellent. I think she'll make the team in whichever event (200m/400m) she chooses. Making the team in both may prove difficult, obviously, but I reckon she could do that too.

I also think she'll end up on at least two out of the three relays regardless of which event(s) she runs.

[ATK]

Gold? I want what Ato's smoking.

I don't think he means she will actually get gold. More like 200m = 31% chance, 400m = 44% chance. Low probability but one is more likely (I just made up random numbers by the way).

But with that said, if Naser is not running, SMU only runs the 200, and Felix makes the US 400m team, her gold medal chances are as good as anyone else in Tokyo.

[booond]

I don't think he means she will actually get gold. More like 200m = 31% chance, 400m = 44% chance. Low probability but one is more likely (I just made up random numbers by the way).

But with that said, if Naser is not running, SMU only runs the 200, and Felix makes the US 400m team, her gold medal chances are as good as anyone else in Tokyo.

Chance for gold in 200m is 0% at the moment. She isn't capable of beating a healthy DAS or SMU.

In 2019 it took 49.6 to get into the top-5. Even if SMU and Naser don't run, Felix would still need to get there or better for a medal, let alone gold. And she'd have to stay healthy, which isn't easy for an athlete of age. I'm not saying she can't do it but I'd put gold at 10% and medal at 20% if SMU and Naser don't run. She might have to hope those two young women from Namibia aren't in peak form, too.

[ATK]

Chance for gold in 200m is 0% at the moment. She isn't capable of beating a healthy DAS or SMU.

In 2019 it took 49.6 to get into the top-5. Even if SMU and Naser don't run, Felix would still need to get there or better for a medal, let alone gold. And she'd have to stay healthy, which isn't easy for an athlete of age. I'm not saying she can't do it but I'd put gold at 10% and medal at 20% if SMU and Naser don't run. She might have to hope those two young women from Namibia aren't in peak form, too.

So you agree with Ato that 400 is an easier road to Gold.

[booond]

So you agree with Ato that 400 is an easier road to Gold.

😀😀😀 Yes, in the same respect that I agree that the underdog always has a chance in any contest. I'd put Athing Mu's chances at 10%, too, possibly higher, if she ran the 400 at the OT. Sydney McLaughlin might be that high or higher, too, if she ran. 10% is a catchall for anyone with two healthy limbs who might break 50. Come the OG that may be a large pool.

[NotDutra5]

Gold? I want what Ato's smoking.

I think Ato's is talking in a "her best chance for gold" fashion.

[booond]

I think Ato's is talking in a "her best chance for gold" fashion.

I believe that is what ATK is intimating five comments above.

And that is likely correct but what does that actually mean? There may be 10 women capable of gold on that day if Naser or SMU don't run. In 2017, on a day where no one considered her for gold, Phyllis Francis was the last woman standing.

[_Jay]

I believe that is what ATK is intimating five comments above.

And that is likely correct but what does that actually mean? There may be 10 women capable of gold on that day if Naser or SMU don't run. In 2017, on a day where no one considered her for gold, Phyllis Francis was the last woman standing.

Felix has run 22.26. Based on the quote above from Kersee, they expect her to run well under 22.00 when it matters. IF (and it’s a big IF that happens), that would make her a Gold medal threat, even w/DAS & SMU....right?

[booond]

Felix has run 22.26. Based on the quote above from Kersee, they expect her to run well under 22.00 when it matters. IF (and it’s a big IF that happens), that would make her a Gold medal threat, even w/DAS & SMU....right?

Kersee is a salesman. Whatever he says is in promotion of himself.

The last time she ran well under 22.00 was in 2012.

We can assume that DAS and SMU are far more likely to run well under 22.00 in the OG.

No, she is not a gold medal threat or even with DAS and SMU.

[jazzcyclist]

Kersee is a salesman. Whatever he says is in promotion of himself.

Ain't that the truth.

[Atticus]

Even if Naser does not run, the 400m wildcard is the Namibians. If none of those pan out, she should definitely have a shot at 400 Gold.

[booond]

Even if Naser does not run, the 400m wildcard is the Namibians. If none of those pan out, she should definitely have a shot at 400 Gold.

And I'm not saying she doesn't have a shot but she has a shot like all the rest in the final... if she gets that far. But there are definite obstacles, including the OT, where a few Americans lay-in-wait.

[ATK]

Kersee is a salesman. Whatever he says is in promotion of himself.

The last time she ran well under 22.00 was in 2012.

We can assume that DAS and SMU are far more likely to run well under 22.00 in the OG.

No, she is not a gold medal threat or even with DAS and SMU.

Yup. Lets not forget SMU ran 21.74 into a headwind less than 2 years ago.

SMU could very well run 21.6x, DAS 21.7x, while if Felix approached her 2nd best time ever (21.81) I think most would be surprised. Sub 22 would almost certainly be good enough for bronze though.

Only twice have the top 3 women gone under 22 in the WC/OG final: Seoul 1988 with 5 under 22 and Beijing 2015 with VCB running 21.97 for bronze.

[TF4Ever]

AF is running in Jacksonville on 5/31. If she runs the 400m, then certainly Ato is wrong when he says she will only run the 200m at OT. If she does not, then I would still go with what AF said she would do at OT - run both. I would imagine she is aiming for a top 3 in the 400 and a first in 200 at OT. That would place her on the 4x100 and the 4x400, and either the 200m or 400m.

[booond]

SMU could very well run 21.6x, DAS 21.7x, while if Felix approached her 2nd best time ever (21.81) I think most would be surprised. Sub 22 would almost certainly be good enough for bronze though.

Only twice have the top 3 women gone under 22 in the WC/OG final: Seoul 1988 with 5 under 22 and Beijing 2015 with VCB running 21.97 for bronze.

My discussion was about the gold but certainly she'd have a shot at the bronze along with all the finalists.

As to the 3 under 22 "fact", much of that is circumstance, not a rule. If there are three women in the field capable of going under 22 there is a chance they all will during the OG Final.