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In praise of Allyson Felix

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  • Originally posted by booond View Post

    My discussion was about the gold but certainly she'd have a shot at the bronze along with all the finalists.

    As to the 3 under 22 "fact", much of that is circumstance, not a rule. If there are three women in the field capable of going under 22 there is a chance they all will during the OG Final.
    Yea thats my point. Even with Felix running close to her PB, it may not even get her Gold in the 200m.

    In the 400 though, running close to her PB could land her Gold (again, assuming no Naser & SMU).

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    • Originally posted by ATK View Post

      Yea thats my point. Even with Felix running close to her PB, it may not even get her Gold in the 200m.

      In the 400 though, running close to her PB could land her Gold (again, assuming no Naser & SMU).
      *Not being argumentative*

      What is the likliehood of her running close to her PB 200? Best she has done is 21.98 since her PB in 2012 and that was 2015. If you assume she can run 22.0 can she run that on the day of the OG final? The 22.26 was closer to 22.4 without wind.

      The close to PB discussion in the 400 lands us near where she was in 2017 49.6ish. She was slower in the 2017 WC - 50.08 - and could've waltzed home with gold in 49.6ish. She wasn't capable that day or most days... PBs are PBs not every meet results. If no Naser or SMU and the Namibian women are one-trick ponies then it is possible mid-to-high 49 takes gold. Shericka Jackson, in her prime at 26, ran 49.47 in 2019. Barring injury, have to assume she is more likely to be closer to her PB at the OG.

      We'll know more in a few weeks, maybe a few days.

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      • Originally posted by booond View Post

        Kersee is a salesman. Whatever he says is in promotion of himself.

        The last time she ran well under 22.00 was in 2012.

        We can assume that DAS and SMU are far more likely to run well under 22.00 in the OG.

        No, she is not a gold medal threat or even with DAS and SMU.
        Sure. We all agree that DAS & SMU are more likely than Felix to run close to PB in Tokyo.

        My comment was in the context of Kersee’s quote, Assuming he could be correct(just for a moment) and just looking hypothetically.

        If you’ve concluded He can’t be trusted as a source on Felix’s potential, and is all BS, then your position is pretty clear on the topic. Lol. I get it.

        While sub 22 for Felix may be unlikely & an amazing feat at this stage in her career....22.2 just over the allowable wind, at that point in the season.....I think shows it’s far from impossible. Trials in less than a month, will give us a GREAT indication. Exciting stuff...

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        • Kersee gets paid to coach athletes, he is going to say his athletes are in a position to PB because it directly affects his bottom line. The Toyota salesman doesn't badmouth the new Corolla.

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          • Originally posted by booond View Post
            Kersee gets paid to coach athletes, he is going to say his athletes are in a position to PB .
            Well....sometimes they do. Lol

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            • I've been thinking about this again. I was about to say "if she was just planning to do the 200m, she'd be doing more 100s" then realised she has run 3 x 100's this year, but only 1 x 400.

              The fact that she's been running 100s in competition suggests to me she is planning to run at least the 200m at the Trials. I think she will probably run both, or do a last minute decision on the 400m as suggested earlier. But definitely the 200m
              • In 2019 when she planned to do the 400m she only raced over 400m
              • In 2017 (when she had a BYE at 400) she ran the 100m & 200m at the Trials, after a race at each distance first (no 400m pre US Trials)
              • In 2016 when she went for the 200m & 400m at the Trials she didn't have any 100's but did run 60m indoors (but of course was injured pre trials & only had 2 x400s)
              • In 2015 when she was doing the 400m she ran mainly 200s and 400s, only one race at 100m

              The only years where she has run that many 100s is when she has attempted to make the team in the 200m, or 100/200, and 200/400m. She never runs that many 100s when just wanting to do the 400m.

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              • Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post
                I've been thinking about this again. I was about to say "if she was just planning to do the 200m, she'd be doing more 100s" then realised she has run 3 x 100's this year, but only 1 x 400.

                The fact that she's been running 100s in competition suggests to me she is planning to run at least the 200m at the Trials. I think she will probably run both, or do a last minute decision on the 400m as suggested earlier. But definitely the 200m
                • In 2019 when she planned to do the 400m she only raced over 400m
                • In 2017 (when she had a BYE at 400) she ran the 100m & 200m at the Trials, after a race at each distance first (no 400m pre US Trials)
                • In 2016 when she went for the 200m & 400m at the Trials she didn't have any 100's but did run 60m indoors (but of course was injured pre trials & only had 2 x400s)
                • In 2015 when she was doing the 400m she ran mainly 200s and 400s, only one race at 100m

                The only years where she has run that many 100s is when she has attempted to make the team in the 200m, or 100/200, and 200/400m. She never runs that many 100s when just wanting to do the 400m.
                Fair points and in response to the bolded bit, her 100s, in years where she's medalled in the 200, have never been as lacklustre as they've been this year, so that might be a catalyst for her (reluctantly) selecting the 400.

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                • Barring injury, AF is running the 400 and the 200 at OT.

                  Any analyses on what she will run at OT that includes 2016 (serious injury prior to OT) and 2019 (c-section in November 2018) are faulty and should be thrown out.

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                  • Originally posted by TF4Ever View Post
                    Barring injury, AF is running the 400 and the 200 at OT.
                    That's what I am also assuming, or do you actually have some inside info on that?
                    If not, we're both in the dark.

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                    • Just circling back after her interview right after the 400m heats: https://youtu.be/zk4awKbNV_A

                      Someone asks a question about what led to the decision to run the 400m and if there was back and forth during the spring/early summer (as we had here)

                      She says it's always been the plan for the past 2 years to run the double here and then hopefully have a decision to make after (since the double in Tokyo is not possible)

                      Though I'm not surprised rumors start, but it does make me question where people in the media get thier info, or if this was Felix's team just leaking rumors to just get conversation going.

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                      • Another possibility is that Felix' camp decided to change their story to meet a change in plans as well. We'll never know I guess. Ato repeated his info that Felix changed from running the 200m to both last night IIRC.

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                        • Felix has launched her own shoe company

                          story linked on home page

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                          • Originally posted by gh View Post
                            Felix has launched her own shoe company

                            story linked on home page
                            Milk all that free nbc pub for all you can.

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                            • Originally posted by NotDutra5 View Post
                              Another possibility is that Felix' camp decided to change their story to meet a change in plans as well. We'll never know I guess. Ato repeated his info that Felix changed from running the 200m to both last night IIRC.
                              Ato's information was wrong. Instead of admitting he was wrong, he gave it a spin to cover himself. It was always the plan for AF to run the 200 and 400 from the beginning. Felix camp did not change their story. Neither did they leak any information.

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                              • Originally posted by booond View Post

                                Milk all that free nbc pub for all you can.
                                Silly!

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