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  • At Husker Invite, Will Daniels (Iowa) is leading Ayden Owens (Michigan) after 8 events, 6464 to 6408. Will has a better JT than Owens, but not as fast in the 1500, so it should be interesting.

    Will is a transfer from Division III Central College, where he scored 7427w in 2019 (7195 legal)... and start tracking him olorin, as his PRs may sum to near 8000 after today. Another post-covid surprise.

    Add: Owens responds to the challenge with a 2m PR in JT - great competition, after 9, Daniels 7098 vs Owens 7043, Final: Owens 7732, Daniels 7649
    Last edited by miketandf; 04-18-2021, 03:05 AM.

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    • Originally posted by deca View Post

      Olorin - Very curious about your thoughts on the prediction of Dec based on Hep scores. That's one that I've never quite dialled in. The more experienced and better scoring the decathlete is, the better the correlation/predictiveness appears to be (which could also be explained by the relatively longer learning curve of the Discus and Javelin) - but a guy like Donovan Kilmartin, who never put together a big Dec, despite being an ok discus and javelin thrower and a 6k+ Hept guy - showed up as an outlier in models I ran. And then you look at some of the faster twitch guys (Clay, O'Brien, Eaton to a lesser extent) tended to have bigger variance between their PB totals and their Dec PBs - as well as between what you'd think their Hep scores would indicate they should/could score in the Dec.
      Sorry for the late response. I tried to retrieve my files but unfortunately failed (a combination of a computer virus and my own stupidity). Therefore, the response below is based on my memory. Luckily, I have done the calculation twice (as I had a mistake in the first time), so I remember quite a bit.

      Generally, the problem with such examination is that most multi-eventers do not pay the same emphasis to the Hep as the Dec and thus the difference between the results is likely to be exaggerated (and very noisy as elite athletes have different attitude to the winter heptathlon). As such, I examined it in the collegiate level where athletes compete for important titles both in the winter and summer. The method I used was to examine the performance in the winter Hep and then examine the performance in the Dec in the subsequent summer. I limited the analysis only to ~8000 decathletes and took out all injuries red-shirting and so on.
      The main result was an average difference of roughly 2,100 points. Almost all of the decathletes were in the 1900-2300 bracket. Anecdotally, these numbers seems to hold up, as Tilga (good thrower) improved by 2,200 points from iNCAA to Spec Towns and Owens has a similar difference between his Dec and Hep PBs.

      I further explored what can explain the variability in this gap. As expected, the main predictors were the decathlete PBs in DT and JT. What was less expected was the fact the indoor 1000 was a better predictor than the outdoor 400 or 1500. A possible reason is that the 1000 is a corelated with both the 400 and the drop in the number of points from the 1,000 to the 1,500.
      For example, Curtis Beach had an improvement of only ~1700, while I think that Hock was the best in this category (not sure though).
      The other events did not have a significant effect. As for your observation that the fast twitch decathletes have higher variability in the gap between Dec and Hep, it may be that the difference is between Clay’s type (sprinter-thrower) and Eaton’s type (sprinter – jumper) but this is obviously a guess.

      Comment


      • https://georgiadogs.com/news/2021/4/...eek-honor.aspx
        Side notes:
        1) Tilga listed at 6-7 (2.01m) in article, power-forward material... the dude is huge
        2) GS - gotta like the mustache
        3) ZZ - a decade into his career, he sets a PR of 4:40.05 in the 1500... (note the shoes)

        Add: now tracking Ballengee and Nwaba (thanks olorin). T&FN Oly Trial Formchart has J. Taiwo at #9... may have to add him soon also
        Last edited by miketandf; 04-19-2021, 09:08 PM.

        Comment


        • Start lists up for this weekend's multi action...
          Lana, Italy: WA Challenge : Combined Events... some good Euro folks looking for the 6420/8350 Q and/or a lot of place points. Only one American: Chari Hawkins
          Deca: https://www.facebook.com/MultistarsO...type=3&theater
          Hept: https://www.facebook.com/MultistarsO...type=3&theater

          ...and a reminder... some folks looking for auto-Qs and/or solid openers this weekend in Chula Vista:
          Deca: Victor (GRN, has Q), his brother Felix (8509 PR in 2017), Duckworth (GBR), and Americans H. Williams and T. Ehrhardt
          Hept: several of T&FN's Oly Trial formcharters...Bougard (has Q), Kunz, Cooks, Nwaba

          Comment


          • Originally posted by miketandf View Post
            this weekend's multi action...
            Chula Vista
            Dec: H. Williams and T. Ehrhardt.
            Hep: Bougard , Kunz, Cooks, Nwaba
            'Following' . . . thanks!

            Comment


            • Originally posted by miketandf View Post

              ...and a reminder... some folks looking for auto-Qs and/or solid openers this weekend in Chula Vista:
              Deca: Victor (GRN, has Q), his brother Felix (8509 PR in 2017), Duckworth (GBR), and Americans H. Williams and T. Ehrhardt
              Hept: several of T&FN's Oly Trial formcharters...Bougard (has Q), Kunz, Cooks, Nwaba
              Bougard is in Drake relays (HJ) along with K. Williams and Brooks in the LJ.
              Duckworth has the potential to achieve the auto-Q along with Felix. In the American front H. Williams started the season in mediocre shape while Ehrhardt show good improvement in the HJ and decent PV and capable of breaking 8,000 points. However, he will need to have the competition of his life to get the auto-Q.
              At the collegiate level the McDonnnell invitational in Arkansas usually draw a good field. My new black horse for a decathlon medal Markus Ballengee is likely to make an appearance.
              EDIT - Women Hep - turnout I looked at the 2019 entry list. So Bougard will enjoy California sunshine doing a full heptathlon (hopefully) rather than freezing in Iowa. Nwaba is the most interesting one in my opinion. The mind saying she is preparing for her master career, but the heart wants a full comeback ala Scantling. Kunz is (probably) the most important toward Tokyo. Hopefully, she can continue to improve her PBs in individual events and score 6,200+ in the Heptathlon.
              Last edited by olorin; 04-22-2021, 12:54 AM.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by olorin View Post
                My new black horse for a decathlon medal Markus Ballengee is likely to make an appearance.
                Made me look.

                Nah, this loser doesn't even have a mark in the Steeple or Hammer!!

                100 11.04
                400 49.72
                1500 4:30.17
                110H 14.42
                400H 53.44
                HJ 6'8
                PV 16'6
                LJ 23'5
                TJ 44'4
                SP 48'10
                DT 170'
                JT 179'
                Dec 7722

                but I like the cut of his jib!

                Comment


                • Speaking of Arkansas, only four years ago they were probably the leading college in the multi-events with four heptathletes in the top-10 (Brooks, Stumbaugh, Brown and Herman) and two men above 7,500.
                  This weekend they do not even have an Heptathlon and they are miles behind Georgia.
                  Hopefully it is just a dry spell and they will be able to bounce back soon.
                  One features of the program in Arkansas is that their JT is usually weak.
                  The four women I mentioned all had a PB of less than 40m when they left collage. Ballengee has a 54m PB and Jacobus and Moore also had a PB of less than 60m when they left collage.
                  The JT is more technique than power. So, if the above is a problem, rather than a few anecdotal cases, then they should solve it if they want to give Georgia a ran for their money in the multi events.
                  (for comparison both Hall and K. Williams had a PB in mid-40. Devon, Scantling, Uibo and Tilga all let collage with PBs above 60m).

                  Last edited by olorin; 04-22-2021, 12:10 AM.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by olorin View Post

                    Bougard is in Drake relays (HJ) along with K. Williams and Brooks in the LJ.
                    Duckworth has the potential to achieve the auto-Q along with Felix. In the American front H. Williams started the season in mediocre shape while Ehrhardt show good improvement in the HJ and decent PV and capable of breaking 8,000 points. However, he will need to have the competition of his life to get the auto-Q.
                    At the collegiate level the McDonnnell invitational in Arkansas usually draw a good field. My new black horse for a decathlon medal Markus Ballengee is likely to make an appearance.
                    Hope the weather improves for the multi guys at the Arkansas/McDonnell meet. Maybe Steele Wasik makes an appearance there?

                    Re: Bougard... I made the exact same mistake, when looking at Drake (before donley2 posted link to 2021), the entries I saw initially were from 2019, not this year... so while I may not expect a full hept from Bougard (has Q), I'm hoping she competes at Chula Vista with the rest of them. Deca PV could be also interesting there with H. Williams, T. Duckworth and T. Ehrhardt all with PRs at 5.26/17-3 or higher (doing so in a deca would be a helluva bonus).
                    Last edited by miketandf; 04-22-2021, 12:04 AM.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by miketandf View Post

                      Hope the weather improves for the multi guys at the Arkansas/McDonnell meet. Maybe Steele Wasik makes an appearance there?
                      Ballengee is in but no Wasik
                      https://arkansasrazorbacks.com/wp-co...ies-update.pdf

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by olorin View Post
                        My new black horse for a decathlon medal Markus Ballengee is likely to make an appearance.
                        Yes, the college deca scene is really heating up nicely... there are several guys that could score 8000 and not even medal at the NCAAs.

                        Comment


                        • While there are no Americans in the men decathlon in Multistars (don’t really understand it), one name caught my eyes – Adam Helcelet from the Czech Republic. Prior to Rio Olympics, Helcelet (born 1991) was ranked in my books as one of the young promises that has the potential to go 8500+ in his career. However, a combination of injuries and lost form, suggested that he was unable to improve on his brilliant earlier career, and remains “stuck” on the same level since his early 20’. To illustrate, half of his individual event PBs are before he was 22, and only in the throwing events he was able to improve after Rio.
                          WA did an interesting piece on him https://www.worldathletics.org/news/...epublic-decath and I found two interesting things:
                          1. We share a common interest in history
                          2. He is still dreaming of an Olympic medal.
                          Comebacks in the decathlon are hard and rare. In order to keep his dream of Olympic glory, he (obviously) first needs to qualify. There are lots of placing points in these multi-challenges and a win will put him in a good position to qualify. However, if he wants to make an impression in Tokyo, he should aim at least for the Auto-Q.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by olorin View Post
                            Comebacks in the decathlon are hard and rare.
                            The 8476 was Scantling's first Dec in 5 years and a 250pt PR.

                            Comment


                            • Supposedly Lana Multistars deca/hept has live streaming here, for all sessions: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?app...qyc_Vzs28xaljQ

                              Speaking of mini-comebacks, well, I believe his first race since 2019(?)... at Drake today... Devon Williams 14.36 (-1.6) in 110H heats (PR = 13.37)... race video here... if anyone has access to video, please tell me he hit a hurdle or something, or conditions were horrible... he's in lane 6... Either way, he's back on the track - so that's a good thing.
                              https://www.usatf.tv/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=45365&do=videos&video_id=30 4601

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                                The 8476 was Scantling's first Dec in 5 years and a 250pt PR.
                                Can you (or anyone else) think of another example of someone that was good as a young decathlete then was out for a long time and returned better than he was?
                                I didn't check it but of the top of my head I can name several decathletes that try to mount a comeback and failed to improve on their collegiate form (Taiwo (probably), Morrison, Beach, Cato to name few)

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