2021 multi-event

[Wamerdam]

Saluri announced retirement two years ago.

Have read the thread for 5-6 years, first time posting and realizing many internet message board sites post to the board if you hit the return button, hence no paragraph for concern of an incomplete post. If grammatical criticism is your only response, then i think i made my point: Personal bests stats are a poor way to generate a list, (just scores and head to head competition is better.) and also you left some people off the list and added others who have yet to post even elite day 2 USA scores let alone day two Olympic medal scores. I would not have offered my my qualifications unless you asked me for it. You asked me for it so I gave it to you. I’ve successfully both coached and competed as a top elite decathlete for 45 years. I only volunteer this and some constructive critique about prognosticating decathlon scores because you asked me to prove my qualifications. It sounds like you were expecting less and sometimes the truth ruffles the regulars in a room. My intention was to simply answer your question which was, “how are you qualified as an expert on the subject or the athletes.”

[Atticus]

Saluri announced retirement two years ago.
Have read the thread for 5-6 years, first time posting and realizing many internet message board sites post to the board if you hit the return button, hence no paragraph for concern of an incomplete post.
1.If grammatical criticism is your only response, then i think i made my point:

2.Personal bests stats are a poor way to generate a list, (just scores and head to head competition is better.) and also you left some people off the list and added others who have yet to post even elite day 2 USA scores let alone day two Olympic medal scores.

3. I would not have offered my my qualifications unless you asked me for it. You asked me for it so I gave it to you. I’ve successfully both coached and competed as a top elite decathlete for 45 years. I only volunteer this and some constructive critique about prognosticating decathlon scores because you asked me to prove my qualifications.

4. It sounds like you were expecting less and sometimes the truth ruffles the regulars in a room. My intention was to simply answer your question which was, “how are you qualified as an expert on the subject or the athletes.”

Lots to unpack there.

1. Nothing to do with grammar, everything to do with readability. Posts like that glaze most people's eyes over. Break it down into digestable chunks. Number things if you need to (like this).

2. It was Olorin's choice how to select athletes for analysis. It was fine for me, but feel free to do it how you choose, but criticizing his method adds nothing to the discussion.

3. Who asked for your 'credentials'? You don't need any to post here. Olorin has already established his here by posting insightful, helpful, interesting analyses.

4. We were not expecting ANYTHING. There's no ruffling because the 'regulars' welcome informed commentary.

The bottom line is that you are very encouraged to add your perspective here. The more the merrier. But attacking Olorin's methodologies served no useful purpose, because we like his contributions.
I hope you follow this Friday's multis on-line with us here - many of the USA's finest will be there and it should be fun.

So, I repeat, welcome to the fun - upbeat, positive banter is always appreciated. If you competed 45 years ago, you're a geezer like many of the rest of us here!

[deca]

I am always curious why more folks don’t just say their names. Adds merit to our various remarks and “credentials”. I’m Matt Norquist. I’ve been a mediocre multi for 30 years, but managed a handful of All-Americans (despite 2 TFN slights in HS!) and a couple Master’s national wins. And trained with a number of Olympic Dec medalists and stand in coached a couple indoor Hep national champs. I’m a stats nerd like olorin - do stats for a living - and while an optimist on scores, can tell you what folks will score by the end of the HJ!

This will be a fun Multis year and I’m very interested in how Bastien will do as well. I more like seeing the old guys like Tim W at Dartmouth still putting up 7500 points at 35!

[olorin]

I have very important deadline coming up this Friday and originally, I thought not to post until my preview to this weekend multi-events meetings. So, this will be a rather quick post.

First, I would like to thank the posters that came to my "defense" and commented that they enjoy my posts. This is especially true for those posters that are not active in the “multi-event community”. As Retread noted doing the analysis is taking a lot of time and effort and it is nice to know that people, outside the few that comment regularly, enjoy my effort.

Second, for those that are waiting for a war about who is more knowledgeable, smart and sexy this is not going to happen. I am doing these threads for two reasons:

1. It forces me to follow multi-events closely, and in my opinion the more you follow multi-events the more one gets to enjoy them
2. I hope that by posting other people get to enjoy more what is in my opinion the best event in the best sport in the world

I definitely enjoy arguing about multi-events but only when it is mature, unbiased and not involve personal attacks.

Lastly, having said all of these, there are two points that I would like to elaborate further soon. First, the use of sum of PBs in the decathlon (and Heptathlon) especially in the context of Olympic qualification. Second, the prediction for decathlon based on heptathlon scores. I hope that I will have the time to do it before the weekend, though I doubt it.

[Wiederganger]

The problem with message boards (and modern comms in general) is that it's very easy to misinterpret someone's tone. I don't believe there was any malice, just passion, and I feel Wamerdam has been unfairly jumped on here. He is entitled to disagree with how someone has presented information, and provided his argument as to why he feels that way. Equally, Olorin is entitled to present his/her argument in their way, and we can enjoy his great posts and have a fun debate around both: It's no a competition or a battle, and we can both be greatful for Olorin's detailed and insightful posts, as well as Wamerdam's obviously informed posts too.

As for paragraphing etc. this site can be a nightmare if you're posting from a smartphone, I've lost many a post, and other folks just struggle generally writing; we aint all literary wizz's.

Anyway, there are some names on that list I am not as au fait on, so please all keep up the debate because I am enjoying reading and learning.

[Atticus]

It's no a competition or a battle, and we can both be greatful for Olorin's detailed and insightful posts, as well as Wamerdam's obviously informed posts too.

You're absolutely right, and I look forward to both. As for misunderstanding tone, "Having a ranking cutoff based on all-time pr lacks understanding of the event." is a pretty clear insult to me, which is why I objected.

[El Toro]

You're absolutely right, and I look forward to both. As for misunderstanding tone, "Having a ranking cutoff based on all-time pr lacks understanding of the event." is a pretty clear insult to me, which is why I objected.

Nobody, and I mean absolutely nobody, has the right to demand that somebody else work for free for THEIR needs. If somebody wants an expanded analysis, either ask nicely if the other person can do it, or do it yourself and post to the board.

at this point, personal attack cut by mods

[Atticus]

I'll take a wild guess that Warmerdam is Bastien's dad, which would explain the 'ardor'.

[aaronk]

Lots to unpack there.

1. Nothing to do with grammar, everything to do with readability. Posts like that glaze most people's eyes over. Break it down into digestable chunks. Number things if you need to (like this).

2. It was Olorin's choice how to select athletes for analysis. It was fine for me, but feel free to do it how you choose, but criticizing his method adds nothing to the discussion.

3. Who asked for your 'credentials'? You don't need any to post here. Olorin has already established his here by posting insightful, helpful, interesting analyses.

4. We were not expecting ANYTHING. There's no ruffling because the 'regulars' welcome informed commentary.

The bottom line is that you are very encouraged to add your perspective here. The more the merrier. But attacking Olorin's methodologies served no useful purpose, because we like his contributions.
I hope you follow this Friday's multis on-line with us here - many of the USA's finest will be there and it should be fun.

So, I repeat, welcome to the fun - upbeat, positive banter is always appreciated. If you competed 45 years ago, you're a geezer like many of the rest of us here!

THIS!!!!!
LOL

[deca]

I have very important deadline coming up this Friday and originally, I thought not to post until my preview to this weekend multi-events meetings. So, this will be a rather quick post.

First, I would like to thank the posters that came to my "defense" and commented that they enjoy my posts. This is especially true for those posters that are not active in the “multi-event community”. As Retread noted doing the analysis is taking a lot of time and effort and it is nice to know that people, outside the few that comment regularly, enjoy my effort.

Second, for those that are waiting for a war about who is more knowledgeable, smart and sexy this is not going to happen. I am doing these threads for two reasons:

1. It forces me to follow multi-events closely, and in my opinion the more you follow multi-events the more one gets to enjoy them
2. I hope that by posting other people get to enjoy more what is in my opinion the best event in the best sport in the world

I definitely enjoy arguing about multi-events but only when it is mature, unbiased and not involve personal attacks.

Lastly, having said all of these, there are two points that I would like to elaborate further soon. First, the use of sum of PBs in the decathlon (and Heptathlon) especially in the context of Olympic qualification. Second, the prediction for decathlon based on heptathlon scores. I hope that I will have the time to do it before the weekend, though I doubt it.

Olorin - Very curious about your thoughts on the prediction of Dec based on Hep scores. That's one that I've never quite dialled in. The more experienced and better scoring the decathlete is, the better the correlation/predictiveness appears to be (which could also be explained by the relatively longer learning curve of the Discus and Javelin) - but a guy like Donovan Kilmartin, who never put together a big Dec, despite being an ok discus and javelin thrower and a 6k+ Hept guy - showed up as an outlier in models I ran. And then you look at some of the faster twitch guys (Clay, O'Brien, Eaton to a lesser extent) tended to have bigger variance between their PB totals and their Dec PBs - as well as between what you'd think their Hep scores would indicate they should/could score in the Dec.

[Atticus]

Pretty stacked field!
Zach Ziemek
Garrett Scantling
Devon Williams
Kyle Garland
Karl Saluri'

Just got gooder

+ Maicel Uibo!

[donley2]

Spec Towns Invite is streaming this weekend on ESPN+ via SECN+.

[miketandf]

Helping out our friend olorin here (olorin, please see private message)...

Spec Towns Decathlon Notes:
Live Spec Town results here:
https://live.pttiming.com/?mid=2177

Scattered thunderstorms expected both days - let's hope they can avoid weather issues. Looks like D. Williams may be a scratch - see live results link for latest entries?. Uibo is the only one with the auto-Q here. Some of these guys are not even ranked by the WA - so they need one or two good marks, or the 8350 auto-Q, to get to the Olys (and of course, the Oly Trials). See 'Road to Tokyo' at:
https://worldathletics.org/stats-zone/road-to/7132391

Also, a-la-olorin, attached is a listing of all 8-9 entrants, their event-by-event PRs, their meet PR scores, and estimates as to what it would take for them to hit the Oly auto-Q of 8350. Their names are hyperlinks, so if you need more details, just click to view their WA/TFRRS web profile. Let me be clear, these are NOT projections, just marks relative to their PRs that add up to 8350. The 8350 bar is set high for these guys, very, very high for some - it's just something to show how difficult 8350 is. If 8350 is their goal, well, we have something to follow. For the two kids competing from Akron, their goals are set at 7000. I hope to update this during the competition, or as long as there is interest here. View or download here:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-07...LHZo0tqK-/view

[Atticus]

I hope to update this during the competition, or as long as there is interest here.

Yes, please!

[Atticus]

Let me be clear, these are NOT projections, just marks relative to their PRs that add up to 8350.

Just had a chance to look at Scantling's 8350 needs, and, as he is the only one I have followed very closely, have these comments:

HJ - while his PR is 2.13, 2.08 might be a stretch.
LJ, SP, 400, DT, PV, JT, 1500 are where I'd expect him to be.
100, 110H are where he should get more points. His indoor marks from this year and last show he's improved quite a bit there.

8350 is a good achievable goal for him (weather permitting) this week. Could be at 8500+ at OT.