2021 multi-event

[miketandf]

Good summary/update Zaza - looks more and more like the 3rd American woman will need the big Q in Eugene, as olorin has said all along. I suppose there's a small chance a liitle q could be obtained, especially if the US Trials are a 'GL' competition, and the last one before Tokyo qualifying ends. Thanks again.

[olorin]

Good summary/update Zaza - looks more and more like the 3rd American woman will need the big Q in Eugene, as olorin has said all along. I suppose there's a small chance a liitle q could be obtained, especially if the US Trials are a 'GL' competition, and the last one before Tokyo qualifying ends. Thanks again.

Second that (good summary).
Also, I would like to know your current estimations for the cutoff points for both men and women.
As for American women if the trials are GL then Kunz has a good chance to qualify based on ranking, especially of Bougard is not healthy enough to have a competitive score.

[nbonaddio]

I have coached podium athletes at all three NCAA levels (I, II & III), and in my experience there are great coaches at all three levels. As our friend Atticus mentioned, D2 & D3 don't generally get the blue chip recruits that the "big" schools get, so any elite performers that come out of those places are the product of excellent coaching. Look at someone like Al Carius at North Central College (D3). His distance program through the years has been awesome, and I would wager that those kids wouldn't have done any better at a "big" school. In fact, they might not have done as well.

Development in the collegiate system in the U.S. is dependent upon so many variables, you can't just say that an athlete would automatically do better at one of the elite schools.

While I generally agree, there's a handful of athletes who have transferred D3 -> D1 and have vastly improved. Wadeline Jonathas comes to mind. Coaching is for sure better, but the amount on which it's better pales to the amount that the supporting environment (facilities, training, etc.) are better.

D3 has a sophomore from one of the UW schools who just scored 7500. I'm convinced that if he transferred to Madison, he'd be a 8000 athlete in no time.

[gm]

While I generally agree, there's a handful of athletes who have transferred D3 -> D1 and have vastly improved. Wadeline Jonathas comes to mind. Coaching is for sure better, but the amount on which it's better pales to the amount that the supporting environment (facilities, training, etc.) are better.

D3 has a sophomore from one of the UW schools who just scored 7500. I'm convinced that if he transferred to Madison, he'd be a 8000 athlete in no time.

Or he would disappear into the woodwork, never to be heard from again. Eau Claire has a good group of coaches and I don't see a 500-point difference by transitioning to Madison. It's all very athlete-specific.

[El Toro]

Thiam at Meeting de Montreuil

1.83 o
1.89 0
1.92 xxx

[deca]

Or he would disappear into the woodwork, never to be heard from again. Eau Claire has a good group of coaches and I don't see a 500-point difference by transitioning to Madison. It's all very athlete-specific.

Agreed. There is a pretty substantial % of US 8k+ guys who went to NAIA, D2, or tier 2 D1 schools. 3 of top 4 all went to smaller schools, although admittedly Azusa was for Track and specifically the multis.

[miketandf]

As of today... trying to sort out the USA Oly 'Q' and 'q' situation after Gotzis (next update after Arona GL meet)
Remaining GL Multis: Arona, ESP (June12-13), Ratingen, GER (June 19-20), USA OT (Deca: June 19-20, Hept: June 26-27)

The Math:
Deca 'Results' Score: 8300 (=1175), 8200 (=1157), 8100 (=1142)...
Hept 'Results' Score: 6400 (=1154), 6300 (=1134), 6200 (=1114)...
GL 'Place' Score: 1st=110, 2nd=90, 3rd=75, 4th=65, 5th=55..

Men:
Have the Q (8350): Scantling and H. Williams
Road-to-Tokyo... 24 go... 16 have Q, 8 q's with Total Ranking scores from 1270 to 1220
...
Reasonable chance of being Tokyo-bound with only a 'q' (World Rankings quota) and likely a top 3 finish
- Simmons (1290+1211=1250 Rank Score), currently 2nd of 8 q's
- Ziemek (1270+1162=1216 Rank Score), e.g. likely gets to Tokyo w/ a 3rd place and 8200, (1270+1157+75)/2=1251
- D. Williams (1232+1114=1173 Rank Score), e.g. likely gets to Tokyo w/ a 3rd place and 8300 = (1232+1175+75)/2=1241
Those who likely need the Q (or a huge PR) and a top-3 finish:
- Garland (1190+1167=1178 Rank Score), Bastien (1170+1135=1152), Filip (1160+1147=1153), etc.

Women:
Have the Q (6420): Bougard and Williams
Road-to-Tokyo... 24 go... 10 have Q, 14 q's, with Ranking scores from 1253 to 1177
...
Reasonable chance of being Tokyo-bound with only a 'q' (World Rankings quota) and likely a top 3 finish
- Kunz (1179+1164=1171 Rank Score), e.g. likely gets to Tokyo w/ a 3rd place and 6300, (1179+1134+75)/2=1194
Those who likely need the Q (or a huge PR) and a top-3 finish
- Brooks (1134+na=na Rank Score), Hawkins (1165+1154=1159), Zamzow (1163+1142=1152), Hall (1138+1124=1131), etc.

Yes, anything is possible - these will all change. We'll know almost all details/targets in the middle of Trials Day 2 deca, when the Ratingen meet is complete.

[Atticus]

We'll know almost all details/targets in the middle of Trials Day 2 deca, when the Ratingen meet is complete.

An intriguing way to wrap up the chase for a spot.

[trailrun]

Worth noting that Shkurenyov doesn’t currently have ANA status so may not be eligible for the Olympics and Ndama is out injured.

Gittens finds herself in a tough position being 23rd in the rankings having missed the auto mark by the barest of margins. Her second best score is from SEC, if she were to improve on it she would be over the auto Q anyway, I don’t think bonus points will help her much.

Dadic hasn’t competed at all this outdoor season, nor has Ikauniece. Preiner and Vidts have competed just once. Not much to go on regarding how they may perform come Tokyo

[nbonaddio]

Agreed. There is a pretty substantial % of US 8k+ guys who went to NAIA, D2, or tier 2 D1 schools. 3 of top 4 all went to smaller schools, although admittedly Azusa was for Track and specifically the multis.

Neither here nor there, wanted to also mention Will Daniels (3rd in form chart) was previously NC at D3 Central College.

Anyone know why Felix Wolter from Pitt isn't competing at NCAAs? IIRC he's German so I can't reasonably imagine he's saving up because he thinks he's got a decent chance of heading to Tokyo.

[Swampdonkey]

There was a picture on social media a few days ago of Wolter in a hospital bed with his elbow in a sling/cast and a comment about surgery. Looks like he had Tommy John.

[olorin]

Agreed. There is a pretty substantial % of US 8k+ guys who went to NAIA, D2, or tier 2 D1 schools. 3 of top 4 all went to smaller schools, although admittedly Azusa was for Track and specifically the multis.

Maybe in the past.
Since 2011 20 American decathletes set a score of 8000+ per WA site. Everyone except Flood are graduated from a D1 school.

[olorin]

Three days before the deadline all the 8000+ decathletes are entered to the US trials.

Additionally, four collegiate are entered with Ballengee only 5 points from the qualification mark (7900). Other American collegiate decathletes that their sum of PRs is greater than 7900: Daniels (8077)*, Martin (7941)*, Swaby (8028)* and Walder (7977)*.
Three freshmen that may not be smart enough to realize that one "shouldn't" score above his some of PBs (West, Turner*, Baldwin*) will be also on my radar.

In the women side Zamzow is the only one missing from the big guns. Brooks is entered both in the Heptathlon and the 100h. Again, several collegiate heptathletes are already entered without the qualification (6000 points) mark.
Marsh has a good chance to join the party, while Holmberg has the highest sum of PBs, but seems slightly out of form. Both Reynolds and Taubert have an outside chance. Obrien (FR-1) would be interesting to watch although 5879 sum of PRs maybe too far to have a realistic chance.

*not entered yet
Last edited by olorin; Today, 05:21 AM.

[deca]

Maybe in the past.
Since 2011 20 American decathletes set a score of 8000+ per WA site. Everyone except Flood are graduated from a D1 school.

Interesting analysis. I was looking at all time - and I’d still argue that a number of the 8k+ at D1 schools are not top tier programs, but you’re right, was only 1 in the last 10 years. That doesn’t tell us the reason for it, merely tells us that it is a fact.

[miketandf]

Three days before the deadline all the 8000+ decathletes are entered to the US trials.
...
In the women side Zamzow is the only one missing from the big guns. Brooks is entered both in the Heptathlon and the 100h.
...

Certainly expect Zamzow with her recent 6291 to be entered? Looks like no comebacks from Taiwo and Nwaba (on initial formcharts). Good to see Lawson giving it a go after not completing a deca for Kent St. this year.