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  • Originally posted by olorin View Post
    Question to Atticus - if there were an Olympic medals on the line would you take your prediction (4:55), Mike's (4:46) or mine (a new PB)?
    Everyone would LOVE for him to run a PR, or even the 4:46. I came up with the 4:55 knowing that he'll be more exhausted than ever. He only has one speed - all out - and I wanted to acknowledge that with a doable time.

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    • The updated WA Road-to-Tokyo lists for the little-q spots are out today, and...

      1) as expected, Gittens drops to #25 (out of 24) on the heptathlon list, with Adama still in
      2) Duckworth (with British Champs in a few days) is still #25 (out of 24) with Shkurenyov still in

      And, back to the drawing board, ... the USA Oly Trials appear to NOT be a GL meet as assumed, despite being 'advertised' as part of the WA Combined Event Challenge, etc. When I went to check on a few USA decathletes world rankings today, all the USOT place scores were listed as a normal national championship 'B' meet, not a GL meet.

      So, not one GL multi meet outside Europe this year... that just sounds real fair for the rest of the world in a Covid-restricted environment.

      This, of course, will make it more difficult for Kunz, Brooks, Zamzow, etc. to get to Tokyo, with a lot less place points on the line.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by nico21 View Post
        As an addendum, here is my list of athletes outside top24, which I believe can challenge the last Hep tickets.

        The 3rd american
        • x (very likely)
        Nico21... no pressure here... but every American hopes you are right!

        Given that the OlyTrials' Multis appear to be no more than a 'B' meet, it will now be very difficult for the American women to get the little-q. I have not done the calculations yet, but it appears only Kunz has a reasonable chance at the little-q in the heptathlon (and she will still need a very good score), and everybody else will likely need the big-Q.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by miketandf View Post

          Nico21... no pressure here... but every American hopes you are right!

          Given that the OlyTrials' Multis appear to be no more than a 'B' meet, it will now be very difficult for the American women to get the little-q. I have not done the calculations yet, but it appears only Kunz has a reasonable chance at the little-q in the heptathlon (and she will still need a very good score), and everybody else will likely need the big-Q.
          I believe that Kunz will need a result in the mid 63xx in order to qualify if she will finish second or third. There is an outside chance that Zamzow can qualify finishing second and scoring more than 6400 points.
          In short, unless Brooks or Zamzow (someone else?) can come up with the auto-Q it will be Williams, Bougard and maybe Kunz.


          Comment


          • Unfortunately olorin, I came up with essentially the same set of numbers...

            Here's what the Americans will need at Eugene based on today's cutoff. If anyone else gets in this weekend, the numbers will of course be higher. Zaza is pretty sure Ndama will be out, if so, that may lower the needed score, but only by a small amount. We need some big scores...

            OlyTrialHeptScoresNeededAsOfJune23.jpg

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            • Originally posted by miketandf View Post

              Nico21... no pressure here... but every American hopes you are right!

              Given that the OlyTrials' Multis appear to be no more than a 'B' meet, it will now be very difficult for the American women to get the little-q. I have not done the calculations yet, but it appears only Kunz has a reasonable chance at the little-q in the heptathlon (and she will still need a very good score), and everybody else will likely need the big-Q.
              The prediction was in function of the multi-event trials being GL .
              Now it all falls flat of-course (althought the Kunz of Gotzis surely has a chance).

              As for the WA CE event being all in Europe, it needs to be tempered by the fact that Tenerife is not exactly Europe continent and rather closer to Africa.
              The meeting in Reunion from end December is also in rather in Africa (although officially part of France) and favours the schedule of athletes from the southern hemisphere.
              Another point is continental championships tend to favor athletes from outside Europe as they have less competition (see Aguilar and Voronina).

              I also don't understand the choice made by some athletes. Adriana Rodriguez could have qualified if she had chosen to compete in Lana and Arona, rather than in Gotzis and at the cuban championships.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by miketandf View Post

                And, back to the drawing board, ... the USA Oly Trials appear to NOT be a GL meet as assumed, despite being 'advertised' as part of the WA Combined Event Challenge, etc. When I went to check on a few USA decathletes world rankings today, all the USOT place scores were listed as a normal national championship 'B' meet, not a GL meet.
                And rightfully so. It would be highly unfair if only competitors from one country could participate at a GL event.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Sebastian View Post

                  And rightfully so. It would be highly unfair if only competitors from one country could participate at a GL event.
                  The question is what is "fair"
                  If "fair" is giving everyone the same chance to qualify regardless of their country they represent then the system by design is not fair. Of course we have the rule of three athletes per country that gives athletes from "smaller" nation a better chance of qualification. To that world athletics added the current point system that again favor the "smaller" nation as it gives an athlete from less competitive continent/county a better chance to score placing points. While this affects all the events in T&F it has by far the largest consequences in multi-events when only the two best scores are counted towards qualification.
                  The one that are paying the price for this "small" nation tilt are obviously athletes from the superpowers. While again this is true for all events this is especially true for American multi-eventers. In order to qualify for the Olympics, an American MUST be in top shape for their trials at the end of June. This basically preclude them from participating in two of the GL meets and probably also Gotzis for the men. So, to gain this precious placing points an American will be required to pick outside the northern summer and go to one of the meeting earlier in the year. This puts him a big disadvantage not only with "smaller" nation athletes, but also compared with (for example) a German that can Use Ratingen in order to qualify.
                  World Athletics recognizes this unique situation and includes the trials in the combine event challenge, thus giving Americans better chance to qualify for a world championship (as Hawkins did). Now they decided not to do something similar for the Olympics and relegated the trials back to a normal national championship. I am more optimistic than Mike and think that three Americans will qualify. however, in my book this ranking system put Kunz and company in a big disadvantage that is "unfair". I understand the argument that in order to encourage participation around the globe you need to tilt the balance towards "smaller" nation. We can argue whether it should be done or not. But in this process American multi-eventers pay probably the heaviest price for the new ranking system.
                  Last edited by olorin; 06-24-2021, 11:16 PM.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by nico21 View Post

                    The prediction was in function of the multi-event trials being GL .
                    Now it all falls flat of-course (althought the Kunz of Gotzis surely has a chance).

                    As for the WA CE event being all in Europe, it needs to be tempered by the fact that Tenerife is not exactly Europe continent and rather closer to Africa.
                    The meeting in Reunion from end December is also in rather in Africa (although officially part of France) and favours the schedule of athletes from the southern hemisphere.
                    Another point is continental championships tend to favor athletes from outside Europe as they have less competition (see Aguilar and Voronina).

                    I also don't understand the choice made by some athletes. Adriana Rodriguez could have qualified if she had chosen to compete in Lana and Arona, rather than in Gotzis and at the cuban championships.
                    Good post.
                    I wonder whether a Cuban athlete can decide not to participate in his national championship and represent Cuba in the Olympics. My guess is not but I really have no idea.

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                    • everything WA does is markedly Euro-centric

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                      • Originally posted by olorin View Post

                        The question is what is "fair"
                        If "fair" is giving everyone the same chance to qualify regardless of their country they represent then the system by design is not fair. Of course we have the rule of three athletes per country that gives athletes from "smaller" nation a better chance of qualification. To that world athletics added the current point system that again favor the "smaller" nation as it gives an athlete from less competitive continent/county a better chance to score placing points. While this affects all the events in T&F it has by far the largest consequences in multi-events when only the two best scores are counted towards qualification.
                        The one that are paying the price for this "small" nation tilt are obviously athletes from the superpowers. While again this is true for all events this is especially true for American multi-eventers. In order to qualify for the Olympics, an American MUST be in top shape for their trials at the end of June. This basically preclude them from participating in two of the GL meets and probably also Gotzis for the men. So, to gain this precious placing points an American will be required to pick outside the northern summer and go to one of the meeting earlier in the year. This puts him a big disadvantage not only with "smaller" nation athletes, but also compared with (for example) a German that can Use Ratingen in order to qualify.
                        You can have your own process of qualification but don't expect the international governing bodies to arrange the system for your convenience. Either the US make an exception to the trials rule for the combined events or they accept that their athletes will be "penalized".

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by ZazaShoya View Post

                          You can have your own process of qualification but don't expect the international governing bodies to arrange the system for your convenience. Either the US make an exception to the trials rule for the combined events or they accept that their athletes will be "penalized".
                          Easier solution will be to have a GL meeting in Eugene that will be part of the trials but decathletes from other countries can compete in. This way you can enjoy both worlds - the US get to keep its trial system and the world athletics get to keep their stupid qualification system.

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                          • Can one of you Euro folks please tell me, where there is any GL combined event meet that is open to everyone, that is outside the countries of FRA, GER, AUT, ITA and ESP. Last I checked, they were all European countries. I really would love to know. If you can't, can you please explain to me how this is 'highly fair'?

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                            • The events were all in Europe, that's true, but that doesn't mean the US athletes couldn't have started there. They could. Some very good US women *did* start in Götzis after all. On the other hand, any athletes who aren't from the States cannot start at the Trials. They simply would have no chances to get these ranking points, which is why I would consider it unfair to give it a higher status than other NC.

                              Also, while the meeting in La Réunion was organized by the french federation and while the island is part of France, it's located near the south of Africa. It wasn't exactly around the corner for the European athletes, who started there.

                              As for the meetings: The US federation could have tried to organize one. France did in La Réunion, so it doesn't seem to me like WA is necessarily opposing that idea. Maybe they could have made the multi-events at the Trials open for international starters. The top 3 US athletes who fullfill the qualification could still have their ticket for the Olympics, but the rest of the world could have the chance to improve their result as well. Then it would have been okay to make it a GL meeting. As it is, it's "B", just like every other national championship.

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                              • All National championships being a "B" is just one of the ludicrous things about the world rankings.

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