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  • #31
    Atticus - adjustments have been made to Scantling's Spec Towns 8350 goal, so you can follow relative to your insight... lowered HJ to 2.02/6-7.5 (what he jumped at a 2020 iHept) and lowered his 100 & HH times accordingly. Use the same viewing/download link for this update and all future updates.

    Note: Correct me if I am wrong... he's not ranked yet by WA, but while looking at his 2020 iHept HJ mark, I noticed he has a pretty good 1178 'results score' and if I'm correct, add 30 points for a 'place score' being the iUSATF Nationals, so that adds to 1208... so he's got a good score 'pending' once he gets a good second score, and that should catapult him in the World Rankings. For some perspective, the 24th ranked decathlete's score on the Road-to-Toyko has a 'total score' of 1209. Wish they gave out more 'place score' points for a meet like Spec Towns.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by miketandf View Post
      Atticus - adjustments have been made to Scantling's Spec Towns 8350 goal, so you can follow relative to your insight... lowered HJ to 2.02/6-7.5 (what he jumped at a 2020 iHept) and lowered his 100 & HH times accordingly. Use the same viewing/download link for this update and all future updates.
      Note: Correct me if I am wrong... he's not ranked yet by WA, but while looking at his 2020 iHept HJ mark, I noticed he has a pretty good 1178 'results score' and if I'm correct, add 30 points for a 'place score' being the iUSATF Nationals, so that adds to 1208... so he's got a good score 'pending' once he gets a good second score, and that should catapult him in the World Rankings. For some perspective, the 24th ranked decathlete's score on the Road-to-Toyko has a 'total score' of 1209. Wish they gave out more 'place score' points for a meet like Spec Towns.
      Excellent!

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by Atticus View Post
        As for misunderstanding tone, "Having a ranking cutoff based on all-time pr lacks understanding of the event." is a pretty clear insult to me, which is why I objected.
        I just read it more as abrupt and to-the-point, spade's a spade type of thing. I don't think it was said with malice and it reminded me of how Jess Ennis's coach Toni Minichiello talks, who is very direct. (side note: he has toned it down in his BBC commentary of late, but as first he was soooo direct to the point of nearly being uncomfortable at times!)

        Anyway, some good points were raised by Olorin, as ever, and Wamerdam. I'm generally in the camp that thinks scores & head-to-heads are better predicters than overall personal bests, but as has been hinted in Olorins post (& El Torro's) I absolutely don't have time and can't always be bothered to do the analysis, so it's great Olorin has the passion and appetite to do it in the way he/she thinks best, and I enjoy that regardless, as it's certainly one way of looking at it.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by Atticus View Post
          Just had a chance to look at Scantling's 8350 needs, and, as he is the only one I have followed very closely, have these comments:

          HJ - while his PR is 2.13, 2.08 might be a stretch.
          LJ, SP, 400, DT, PV, JT, 1500 are where I'd expect him to be.
          100, 110H are where he should get more points. His indoor marks from this year and last show he's improved quite a bit there.

          8350 is a good achievable goal for him (weather permitting) this week. Could be at 8500+ at OT.
          Obviously Atticus is the best suited to estimate Scantling's current shape. I would, however, like to add what I wish for him this weekend.
          400 PB - I still have bad memories from his performance in the last trials when he trained for 8 out of the 10 events, and basically blew his chances with horrible 400 & 1500. I think that the current version of scantling is more mature and determent to do well. A good mark in the 400 will be a nice assurance for my high assessment of him.
          DT 45+ - while Scantling show good form in last two winters, he still have no recent results in the long throws. I have no idea how his training are going, but it will be nice to see him throw at least as well as in his "first career" (until 2016).
          8350+ points for obvious reasons
          Last edited by olorin; 04-08-2021, 12:31 PM.

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by olorin View Post
            I think that the current version of scantling is more mature and determent to do well. A good mark in the 400 will be a nice assurance for my high assessment of him.
            Absolutely. If he can run under 50 (which he certainly is capable of!), his 1500 should be back down to 4:45 where it needs to be (or better!).

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post

              I just read it more as abrupt and to-the-point, spade's a spade type of thing. I don't think it was said with malice and it reminded me of how Jess Ennis's coach Toni Minichiello talks, who is very direct. (side note: he has toned it down in his BBC commentary of late, but as first he was soooo direct to the point of nearly being uncomfortable at times!)

              Anyway, some good points were raised by Olorin, as ever, and Wamerdam. I'm generally in the camp that thinks scores & head-to-heads are better predicters than overall personal bests, but as has been hinted in Olorins post (& El Torro's) I absolutely don't have time and can't always be bothered to do the analysis, so it's great Olorin has the passion and appetite to do it in the way he/she thinks best, and I enjoy that regardless, as it's certainly one way of looking at it.
              I think that there is a slight misunderstanding what is the purpose of this thread and the use of sum of PBs.

              My main interest in the US decathlon and heptathlon is to follow the main contenders for US team
              and NOT to predict the order in the trials. As such (and because it is time consuming) I decided to follow only few athletes rather then the close to 100 athletes as in the last time I posted such thread. In that respect I believe that the sum of PBs is a better mechanism than the head-to-head history.

              To illustrate, assume that there are two athletes A & B that competes three times before the Olympics. Athlete A is very stable decathlete with sum of PBs of 8,400 that always able to score 150 – 250 points less than his sum of PBs (note that 150 points below the sum of PBs is a very good score, which rarely surpass by post-collegiate decathletes). Decathlete B has a sum of PBs of 8,550. In one of the three competitions he will manage to score 200 points below the sum of PBs while in the other two he will score less than 8,000 point. While decathlete A will win against decathlete B 2:1 it will still be decathlete B that will go to the Olympics.

              Finally, I am really happy with Mike’s help. If throughout the season the burden will be split between the two of us, then obviously we can follow more athletes. Regardless, if you are really a huge fan of one of the decathlete/heptathlete then you can simply ask him/her to be included in the analysis.

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by miketandf View Post
                Atticus - adjustments have been made to Scantling's Spec Towns 8350 goal, so you can follow relative to your insight... lowered HJ to 2.02/6-7.5 (what he jumped at a 2020 iHept) and lowered his 100 & HH times accordingly. Use the same viewing/download link for this update and all future updates.

                Note: Correct me if I am wrong... he's not ranked yet by WA, but while looking at his 2020 iHept HJ mark, I noticed he has a pretty good 1178 'results score' and if I'm correct, add 30 points for a 'place score' being the iUSATF Nationals, so that adds to 1208... so he's got a good score 'pending' once he gets a good second score, and that should catapult him in the World Rankings. For some perspective, the 24th ranked decathlete's score on the Road-to-Toyko has a 'total score' of 1209. Wish they gave out more 'place score' points for a meet like Spec Towns.
                While I agree that the 2020 Hep is giving Scantling an advantage in case he will need to qualify by quota, I will be very disappointment if (bearing injuries) three Americans will not get the automatic qualifier. This is a specially true for Scantlings that I think is the best American.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by olorin View Post
                  While I agree that the 2020 Hep is giving Scantling an advantage in case he will need to qualify by quota, I will be very disappointment if (bearing injuries) three Americans will not get the automatic qualifier. This is a specially true for Scantlings that I think is the best American.
                  Before DW dropped out, I was REALLY hoping that ZZ, GS, and DW would all get it this week. ZZ is still #1 until Garrett can beat him.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    The 8350 Goal-PRs-Meet PR file has been updated to include the following:
                    1) All other major USA contenders: Simmons, H. Williams, Bastien, Filip and Ehrhardt
                    2) Scores as a % of Sum of PRs, for both the 8350 Goal and their Meet PR
                    3) World Athletics current decathlon ranking, if available, for added perspective

                    Women's version coming soon...

                    Entered in a meet at Chula Vista in a couple weeks...
                    Men: H. Williams, Ehrhardt, along with Duckworth, Victor and Felix
                    https://www.runnercard.com/e/runner....6&meet=1003353
                    Women: Bougard, Kunz, Cooks, Nwaba and a handful of other near-6000 point women
                    https://www.runnercard.com/e/runner....7&meet=1003353

                    Only a few MIA with just two months to go until Oly Trials. These guys/girls need good scores, now...


                    Correction: T. Ehrhardt from Adams/Klein meet was Taylor Ehrhardt (CAN), not Tim Ehrhardt (USA)

                    Add: Also this Fri/Sat April 9-10... Azusa Pacific Franson Classic Multi... Men: S. Filip and a few other near 8000 guys, Women: Hawkins, Zamzow, Halverson
                    https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sit...nformation.pdf
                    Last edited by miketandf; 04-09-2021, 11:31 AM.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      After everyone's season opener, when we have a better idea of where they all are, we'll begn to adjust things to more realistic goals, changes in HJ, 1500m times, etc., event performances that noticeably change over a multi-eventer's career... again, with the exception of Atticus' tinkering of Scantling's 'goal', these 8350 Goal numbers are just simple ratios that add up to 8350 - not projections... maybe we'll do that next. Enjoy.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        While we pay most of our attention is given to the American qualification in the decathlon, the toughest one is likely to be for a place in the team of the small Baltic state of Estonia (population 1.3m people). While the US so far has no automatic qualification Estonia has already got two. Uibo, the bronze medallist from Doha (PB 8604) and the 2019 NCAA champion Erm (PB 8445). What is even more impressive in the depth behind these two.

                        Oiglane finish sixth in Doha and have a personal best of 8371 that was set in 2017 (and 8245 during the qualification period).
                        Tilga the newly crown NCAA champion in the heptathlon has a PB of only 8101 (2018). However, given is huge improvement this year (set six PBs in his way to win the iNCAA) and his heptathlon score (6264) should be able to get the qualification mark.
                        Saluri has a PB of 8137 and seems to be a long shot for the Olympics.
                        Rosenberg completes six active Estonian decathletes with a PB of 8000+.

                        Interestingly, no less than four Estonian studied (or Studying) in Georgia (Uibo, Erm, Tilga and Saluri) creating probably one of the most successful partnership between an American collage and a foreign country. Three of the four (Erm is injured) are competing in Spec Towns.
                        I doubt if Estonia ever had four athletes that qualify for the Olympics (apologies if they did) it would be interesting to see how they will choose who is going for the games

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Another interesting multi-event this weekend is in Azusa
                          Among the women a surprise entry by Ashtin Zamzow Mahler that carried an injury in the Texas relay. AZM had a stellar 2019 season when she broke all of her PBs in individual events and the heptathlon (6222). She needs another year like this in order to catch the fast improving Kunz who seems on her way to set the Olympic qualification.
                          at the age of 30 Chari Hawkins is the oldest of the third spot contenders. She also had a wonderful 2019 season, but yet to reach this level post-corona.
                          Kendall Gustafson and Allison Halverson (now representing Armenia) are two more with Olympic aspirations that will be very hard to fulfill given the depth of the field in the US and the world.
                          In the men side the favorite is Scott Filip (one of the knocking on the door decathlete) that had a good start to his post coronavirus campaign. He too will need to improve a lot in order to have a chance at Olympic qualification.
                          Lastly, Wolf Mahler that show a lot of promise before injured in a motorcycle accident (thanks again to 18.99 that posted this emotional story) is also competing.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Headwind in Georgia

                            100 (-0.5)
                            Karl Saluri 10.82
                            Garrett Scantling 10.83
                            Zach Ziemek 10.93
                            Kyle Garland 11.12

                            Karel Tilga 11.13
                            Maicel Uibo DNS

                            it's live on SECN+
                            Last edited by Atticus; 04-09-2021, 03:38 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              100H (0.4)

                              1 Kendell Williams 13.10
                              2 Anna Hall 13.64
                              3 Asya Reynolds 13.94

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                                100H (0.4)

                                1 Kendell Williams 13.10
                                2 Anna Hall 13.64
                                3 Asya Reynolds 13.94
                                Hall a new PB, breaking her old PB by 0.24.

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