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  • that list also ignores marks made with the bigger implements, which makes no sense.

    8397........... Torsten Voss (East Germany)............. 7/07/82
    8257........... Yordani García (Cuba)................... 9/01/07
    8130........... Ayden Owens (Puerto Rico)............... 4/18/19

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    • Originally posted by Powell View Post

      But the U20s have only been competing under current specifications since 2006
      I included Mayer to offer a bit of a comparison. Of course different athletes develop at different rates. Some of the other names further down that list:

      Nowak - 7980
      Shkurenyov - 7830
      Kazmirek - 7829

      Kaul, Moloney and Erm have all gone on to add 200-300 points to those scores with the senior implements
      Last edited by treadwater1; 07-18-2021, 10:38 PM.

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      • Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post

        The track she's at this weekend is old and 'local. With the Tokyo track she will be quicker and 'bouncier'.

        I think she may get a high 13.3, and even though 1.8 yesterday, I think she can do 1.89 or 1.92 in Tokyo. I think the rest of your predictions look solid.
        If she can get nearer 6,600 than 6500 she can medal.

        I'm not sure 2 US women will get on the podium, I really think Vetter is going to medal, and Thiam.

        I really (really) hope that 6,600 points will not be enough to medal. With so many women capable of scoring 6,700+ it will be a very sad competition if 6,600 will be enough for Bronze.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by olorin View Post

          I really (really) hope that 6,600 points will not be enough to medal. With so many women capable of scoring 6,700+ it will be a very sad competition if 6,600 will be enough for Bronze.
          Agreed, but you know what I'm going to say...that's only happened twice this century, in Rio 2016 where bronze was won in 6653 by BTE (4th wast 6617/Ikauniece) and London 2017, where bronze was won in 6636 by Vetter (4th at 6594/Rodriguez).

          It's also worth pointing out that more often than not, most women's score drop come the major champs, compared to what they did in Gotzis or at the US Trials. Even in those years where 6600 wasn't enough for bronze, nearly everyone dropped come the Major champs:
          • In 2016 Thiam was the only one with a significant improvement, her breakthrough year, where she went 300+ more than Gotzis. Ennis improved only slightly from her score in Ratingen, whilst BTE dropped 100pts between Gotzis & Rio, and Ikaunice (4th) and Schafer (5th) were slightly down on Gotzis. All the US women were down.
          • In 2017 Thiam, Schafer and Ikauniece all effectively dropped 200 pts between Gotzis and London, and Bougard had a huge drop/disaster in London. Vetter was the only one to improve.
          I think it's more likely that Kunz, Williams and Bougard will drop 100 pts as opposed to match their US Trials scores, same with Krizan from Gotzis. But that is still medal winning scores. Out of the current top 5, Vetter is the only one I feel will improve on her current SB.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post

            Agreed, but you know what I'm going to say...that's only happened twice this century, in Rio 2016 where bronze was won in 6653 by BTE (4th wast 6617/Ikauniece) and London 2017, where bronze was won in 6636 by Vetter (4th at 6594/Rodriguez).

            It's also worth pointing out that more often than not, most women's score drop come the major champs, compared to what they did in Gotzis or at the US Trials. Even in those years where 6600 wasn't enough for bronze, nearly everyone dropped come the Major champs:
            • In 2016 Thiam was the only one with a significant improvement, her breakthrough year, where she went 300+ more than Gotzis. Ennis improved only slightly from her score in Ratingen, whilst BTE dropped 100pts between Gotzis & Rio, and Ikaunice (4th) and Schafer (5th) were slightly down on Gotzis. All the US women were down.
            • In 2017 Thiam, Schafer and Ikauniece all effectively dropped 200 pts between Gotzis and London, and Bougard had a huge drop/disaster in London. Vetter was the only one to improve.
            I think it's more likely that Kunz, Williams and Bougard will drop 100 pts as opposed to match their US Trials scores, same with Krizan from Gotzis. But that is still medal winning scores. Out of the current top 5, Vetter is the only one I feel will improve on her current SB.
            We agree on most thing - I actually had a post about American underperformances in majors in the last decade, in the American trials heptathlon thread.
            However, unlike other years both Williams and Bougard had a mediocre first day in the trials, so I am more optimistic than you.
            Bottom line - I think that it will take 6650 to medal (I hope for 6,7xx).
            I think that KJT is 100-150 points behind.
            Doable - but not very likely (you have to remember that the underperformance statistic holds for KJT as the other heptathletes).

            Comment


            • Originally posted by olorin View Post

              We agree on most thing - I actually had a post about American underperformances in majors in the last decade, in the American trials heptathlon thread.
              However, unlike other years both Williams and Bougard had a mediocre first day in the trials, so I am more optimistic than you.
              Bottom line - I think that it will take 6650 to medal (I hope for 6,7xx).
              I think that KJT is 100-150 points behind.
              Doable - but not very likely (you have to remember that the underperformance statistic holds for KJT as the other heptathletes).
              I wouldn't equate KJT's situation this year with the others though, she isn't underperforming per se, it's injury related and she has not competed all year until recently, so is playing catch up. With the others - bar Thiam - they have apparently all been injury free and setting good scores, it's that they are more likely to not match those scores come Tokyo.

              It's not surprising when it comes to Gotzis; it's set up for the multievents, there are no other events dictating and influencing the programme and timings, so when they underperform at the majors compared to their Gotzis scores, it's not necessarily about peaking, but the event set-up. I think for the US women though, it's the same old story as other events; it's a cut-throat trials, they have to finish top 3 to Q, so they have to be in form. Hopefully they can carry that form through to Tokyo, but as we agree, it's likely they wont all be able to.

              With Thiam herself not having competed in a heptathlon either, there also has to be a (small) question mark over whether she can put 7 good events together. I'm sure she will be fine, but she shouldn't be as dominant as she has and could be pressured. The other wildcard is potentially Carolin Schafer. Again, no individual heptathlon this year, and her individual marks have been mixed due to a niggle, It's more likely she will either DNF or be down the leaderboard, but she obviously has the ability to score over 6600 too

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post
                I think for the US women though, it's the same old story as other events; it's a cut-throat trials, they have to finish top 3 to Q, so they have to be in form. Hopefully they can carry that form through to Tokyo, but as we agree, it's likely they wont all be able to.
                The good news is that at least one of them should be up to their OT score, and I'm guessing Bougard.
                Kunz was simply TOO good in Eugene, so I think KW will be in the medal fight too.
                I'll be bummed if none are in contention. Can't believe all 3 will be.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post

                  I wouldn't equate KJT's situation this year with the others though, she isn't underperforming per se, it's injury related and she has not competed all year until recently, so is playing catch up. With the others - bar Thiam - they have apparently all been injury free and setting good scores, it's that they are more likely to not match those scores come Tokyo.

                  It's not surprising when it comes to Gotzis; it's set up for the multievents, there are no other events dictating and influencing the programme and timings, so when they underperform at the majors compared to their Gotzis scores, it's not necessarily about peaking, but the event set-up. I think for the US women though, it's the same old story as other events; it's a cut-throat trials, they have to finish top 3 to Q, so they have to be in form. Hopefully they can carry that form through to Tokyo, but as we agree, it's likely they wont all be able to.

                  With Thiam herself not having competed in a heptathlon either, there also has to be a (small) question mark over whether she can put 7 good events together. I'm sure she will be fine, but she shouldn't be as dominant as she has and could be pressured. The other wildcard is potentially Carolin Schafer. Again, no individual heptathlon this year, and her individual marks have been mixed due to a niggle, It's more likely she will either DNF or be down the leaderboard, but she obviously has the ability to score over 6600 too
                  I’m less concerned about Thiam than others, she looked very good during the indoor season, I think she’s been playing it cool and didn’t want to repeat her 2019 season when she peaked far too early. The javelin is a concern, but her elbow was injured in 2016 and she just went through the pain barrier for that gold, if a similar situation arose I don’t doubt we’d see a similar outcome

                  Comment


                  • The World Athletics preview of the heptathlon was quite telling, the first half only talks about Thiam v KJT, the narrative being a repeat of 2018 & 2019, a head to head between these two greats, even after event two, then Thiam pulls ahead after the SP, then KJT comes back after the 200m etc. etc...

                    The other women do get a mention in the second half of the preview, but does he really think it will play out like this, or is this pro British bias from the English writer and his hopes for KJT? Based off this season, it simply is not going to be a head to head, and I found it funny that he would position it this way. Kat is a HUGE question mark, and the narrative should have included the main contenders and how they may fare after Day 1, not just Thiam & KJT.

                    I know previews can be hard to write, but still!

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                      The good news is that at least one of them should be up to their OT score, and I'm guessing Bougard.
                      Kunz was simply TOO good in Eugene, so I think KW will be in the medal fight too.
                      I'll be bummed if none are in contention. Can't believe all 3 will be.
                      Kunz was SO good in Eugene she now has a PB (6703) superior to her sum of PBs in all events (6699) ! Hard to believe but still ... not a favorite for the podium, yet I don't rule her out.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by ZazaShoya View Post

                        Kunz was SO good in Eugene she now has a PB (6703) superior to her sum of PBs in all events (6699) ! Hard to believe but still ... not a favorite for the podium, yet I don't rule her out.
                        Maybe I'm missing something obvious, but how does that work? Or was that sum of pre-trials PBs?

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                        • Pieter Braun out:
                          Last edited by Davidokun; 07-21-2021, 07:36 PM. Reason: Corrected URL

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                          • Originally posted by cigar95 View Post

                            Maybe I'm missing something obvious, but how does that work? Or was that sum of pre-trials PBs?
                            Her 100 hurdles heat in Eugene was wind-aided: +2.4 m/s.

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                            • Did she get a clean sweep of seven PBs then? That tops Avilov, who got what, 8 of 10 in 72?

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by cigar95 View Post
                                Did she get a clean sweep of seven PBs then? That tops Avilov, who got what, 8 of 10 in 72?
                                No, she achieved three PBs at the Trials. Here's the sum of her PBs:

                                Event Result Score Location Date
                                100H 13.12 (+0.3)
                                1106
                                Götzis 29 May 2021
                                HJ 1.82 (5-11½)
                                1003
                                Annapolis 8 February 2020
                                SP 15.80 (51-10)
                                915
                                Chula Vista 3 April 2021
                                200 23.71
                                1009
                                Eugene 26 June 2021
                                LJ 6.50 (21-4) (+1.2)
                                1007
                                Eugene 27 June 2021
                                JT 45.06 (147-10)
                                765
                                Eugene 27 June 2021
                                800 2:14.90
                                894
                                Azusa 14 April 2016
                                Total
                                6699

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