2021 multi-event

[Atticus]

400 in a couple of minutes. They have identical 49.04 PRs. ZZ and GS just need 50-flat to stay on pace. We'll see who's in shape.

Oh snap!
GS 48.61 PR
ZZ 51.00

Day 1

GS 4406
KT 4355
ZZ 4319
KS 4196

[aaronk]

While we pay most of our attention is given to the American qualification in the decathlon, the toughest one is likely to be for a place in the team of the small Baltic state of Estonia (population 1.3m people). While the US so far has no automatic qualification Estonia has already got two. Uibo, the bronze medallist from Doha (PB 8604) and the 2019 NCAA champion Erm (PB 8445). What is even more impressive in the depth behind these two.

Oiglane finish sixth in Doha and have a personal best of 8371 that was set in 2017 (and 8245 during the qualification period).
Tilga the newly crown NCAA champion in the heptathlon has a PB of only 8101 (2018). However, given is huge improvement this year (set six PBs in his way to win the iNCAA) and his heptathlon score (6264) should be able to get the qualification mark.
Saluri has a PB of 8137 and seems to be a long shot for the Olympics.
Rosenberg completes six active Estonian decathletes with a PB of 8000+.

Interestingly, no less than four Estonian studied (or Studying) in Georgia (Uibo, Erm, Tilga and Saluri) creating probably one of the most successful partnership between an American collage and a foreign country. Three of the four (Erm is injured) are competing in Spec Towns.
I doubt if Estonia ever had four athletes that qualify for the Olympics (apologies if they did) it would be interesting to see how they will choose who is going for the games

I'm sure the way it happens is one athlete goes to a school---say Georgia---and is happy there, so he tells his countryman friends about it, and they follow him or her!!

[miketandf]

Technical difficulties with upload, for now... but...
Scantling +151 vs 8350 goal, Tilga +92 vs 8350 goal, and ZZ still has his head above water, +39 vs 8350 goal

Add: updated file now available... good call by olorin/Atticus on Scantling 400... impressive

[wamego relays champ]

Does anyone know the wind speeds for the LJ?

Karel Tilga 7.69 (0.0)
Zach Ziemek 7.68 (-0.5)
Garrett Scantling 7.56 (+0.3)
Karl Saluri 7.56 (+0.2)

[Dave]

Technical difficulties with upload, for now... but...
Scantling +151 vs 8350 goal, Tilga +92 vs 8350 goal, and ZZ still has his head above water, +39 vs 8350 goal

Add: updated file now available... good call by olorin/Atticus on Scantling 400... impressive

What kind of Day 2 should we expect from these guys?

[miketandf]

Day 2: I hope olorin has some thoughts here, but the top 3 sure did impress today. Day 2 is so technical, so I just hope they can all stay on 8350+ pace and mother nature cooperates tomorrow with reasonable/good weather - they all appear to be in shape to achieve this huge auto-Q goal.

Also, I added Scott Filip to the online/downloadable file. He also, is having a great start at Azusa today... two near PR's in the first 2 events: 10.63 vs 10.61 PR and 7.59/24-11 vs 7.62/25-0 PR

[Atticus]

Speaking just for GS, the 8350 projection line has him scoring 4100 tomorrow, but he is already 150 pts above that line, so 4100 seems eminently doable. 4100 + the 4406 he has, gives him a total of . . . uh . . . um . . . alotta points! There is the danger of being cautious and trying to protect the 8350 auto-Q score, but fortunately, GS does not have a cautious gene in his body, so let 'er rip! Just get a real good warm-up before the 110Hs!

[olorin]

Two things. I tend to think that the typical wind is about 1.0; if that is the case, then -0.5 takes about 0.08 from the marks and thus about 18 points from 'expectations'. It does not affect the scores etc., but it does our assessment of what shape the athletes are in.

Is it really realistic to expect athletes to be in mid-season form in what is for some the first real competition is two seasons? (or for Z, with an injured 2019, three seasons?)

An additional note, all of the commentary is very much appreciated, and having one or two 'new kids on the block' potentially greatly increases the group of 'highly informed'. At this point I am most familiar with olorin, so it is easiest for me to assess things and get some level of confidence because of my experience; for others I will get more as they contribute more. This is especially the case for me because my 'professional applied statistics/economics' is now a decade in the past and my inclination to jump in to do my own has decreased (along with access and familiarity with the tools available to me.

I am very impressed with ZZ performance. After his injury in 2019 I wasn't sure whether he will be able to return firing from all cylinders. However, his performance in the first four events was extremely good (2.13!!). I was always impressed by ZZ's determination that help him to become the best decathlete in the US (not including Eaton) even though when he started college he looked like a level behind Nixon, Scantling and company. So while his 400 was weak, I am confident he will not do another scantling-2016, and come June he will run close to his PB.

As for the new kids on the block - I am very impressed with Mike's work and his excel are better than mine. I really hope that he will stay the entire journey until the Olympics.

[miketandf]

I saw over on the NCAA thread that Tyra Gittens at A&M had a Day 1 3869 score going. It would be a stretch for her to get the auto-Q of 6420... but as I was going to enter her numbers, I saw that wind readings were +3.5 and +4.0, so it's a high probability she would be over the wind limit after LJ is factored in... so I'll include her when I get the women's side done, hopefully soon. I assume WA does not use multis with average wind >2.0mps for qualifying purposes.

C. Hawkins has a 3692 score at Azusa after Day 1, putting here in 6100-6200 scoring range, ballpark.

[olorin]

Meanwhile, in the 'rest of the meet', Jasmine Moore just LJed 6.83 (22-5)!

And Kendall Williams responds with 7.00 (23-11.75)
Chanice Porter in 3rd with 6.77 (22-2.5).

And 6.94 to back it!
This is WOW
29cm improvement in the LJ (close to 100 points) reaffirm that Williams will be a medal contender comes Tokyo.
If we try one notch higher then she needs to improve by another 150 - 200 points, before she can dream (realistically) on the American anthem. Her main weakness is her horrible SP. I was hoping that during the Coronavirus break she will master the technique, but her nemesis event keeps eluding her. The HJ is another issue where Williams seems to struggle to jump close to her PB (1.88) while the two big guns are jumping close to (insane) 2.00. However, regardless of the improvement she will make this year, she will still need to bring it on at the major, something that she failed to do so far. Prior to Doha, we use to comment that KJT main issue is to perform well in major championships, so I am cautiously optimistic.

[olorin]

Day 2: I hope olorin has some thoughts here, but the top 3 sure did impress today. Day 2 is so technical, so I just hope they can all stay on 8350+ pace and mother nature cooperates tomorrow with reasonable/good weather - they all appear to be in shape to achieve this huge auto-Q goal.

Also, I added Scott Filip to the online/downloadable file. He also, is having a great start at Azusa today... two near PR's in the first 2 events: 10.63 vs 10.61 PR and 7.59/24-11 vs 7.62/25-0 PR

The second day is also when fatigue sets in and the probability of mistakes increases. I never found a way (that I was happy with) to account for this in my predictions.
I think that the decathlete on the bubble is ZZ. After his 400 performance we can safely assume that he will not run 4:48 in the 1500, but probably closer to 5:00, losing ~70 points on his target. I hope that he can gain it in the other four events. Not sure is you want to account for this in your files.

Down in Florida, Atherley is also having a good competition with 3726 and a new PB in the 200. She already set this year PBs in the LJ (6.33) and JT (37.61) and may yet challenge Gittens and Hall in the NCAA.

[gm]

I saw over on the NCAA thread that Tyra Gittens at A&M had a Day 1 3869 score going. It would be a stretch for her to get the auto-Q of 6420... but as I was going to enter her numbers, I saw that wind readings were +3.5 and +4.0, so it's a high probability she would be over the wind limit after LJ is factored in... so I'll include her when I get the women's side done, hopefully soon. I assume WA does not use multis with average wind >2.0mps for qualifying purposes.

C. Hawkins has a 3692 score at Azusa after Day 1, putting here in 6100-6200 scoring range, ballpark.

Wind on 200 was actually 4.4, shown just under the time... the spreadsheet offers an average of the winds to help fans see if the total score is record-eligible.

[Bruce Kritzler]

Kendall Williams jumped 7.00 in open long jump. legal wind.

[ZazaShoya]

While we pay most of our attention is given to the American qualification in the decathlon, the toughest one is likely to be for a place in the team of the small Baltic state of Estonia (population 1.3m people). While the US so far has no automatic qualification Estonia has already got two. Uibo, the bronze medallist from Doha (PB 8604) and the 2019 NCAA champion Erm (PB 8445). What is even more impressive in the depth behind these two.

Oiglane finish sixth in Doha and have a personal best of 8371 that was set in 2017 (and 8245 during the qualification period).
Tilga the newly crown NCAA champion in the heptathlon has a PB of only 8101 (2018). However, given is huge improvement this year (set six PBs in his way to win the iNCAA) and his heptathlon score (6264) should be able to get the qualification mark.
Saluri has a PB of 8137 and seems to be a long shot for the Olympics.
Rosenberg completes six active Estonian decathletes with a PB of 8000+.

Interestingly, no less than four Estonian studied (or Studying) in Georgia (Uibo, Erm, Tilga and Saluri) creating probably one of the most successful partnership between an American collage and a foreign country. Three of the four (Erm is injured) are competing in Spec Towns.
I doubt if Estonia ever had four athletes that qualify for the Olympics (apologies if they did) it would be interesting to see how they will choose who is going for the games

Though their chances are slim, Taavi Tsernjavki (8086) and Risto Lillemets (8133) did score 8000+, last year actually. So that makes it 8 active Estonians decathletes with a +8000 PB.
I'd say the latter and Rosenberg/Saluri are out of contention for the moment, so the third spot will be decided between Tilga and his now training partner Oiglane (he has joined the Athens-based US-Estonian-Cypriot camp). Tilga seems to have the edge, but he still has to make the Q.

[olorin]

Though their chances are slim, Taavi Tsernjavki (8086) and Risto Lillemets (8133) did score 8000+, last year actually. So that makes it 8 active Estonians decathletes with a +8000 PB.
I'd say the latter and Rosenberg/Saluri are out of contention for the moment, so the third spot will be decided between Tilga and his now training partner Oiglane (he has joined the Athens-based US-Estonian-Cypriot camp). Tilga seems to have the edge, but he still has to make the Q.

Thanks for correcting my mistake. I keep treating 2020 like it never existed. I wonder why...
No disasters and Tilga will have it in the next few hours (and quite possibly score more than Erm's PB).