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  • They're running.
    They're all together after 2 laps.
    Estonians pulling away, GS lagging.

    KT 4:26
    KS 4:28
    ZZ 4:40
    GS 4:53
    Last edited by Atticus; 04-10-2021, 10:25 PM.

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    • Tilga wins! 8484
      GS 8476
      ZZ 8213
      KS 7983

      I'm exhausted . . . but in a good way. 😊

      Comment


      • Well, for GS... 8350Q and #10 All-time USA performer ain't to bad... Nice gut-check for ZZ... a PR in the 1500!

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
          Tilga wins! 8484

          I'm exhausted . . . but in a good way. 😊
          Great PB! 350+ points.

          Comment


          • The NCAA heptathlon is suffering from a lack of depth compared with previous years. Yet, the big three compensate for the lack of depth with an extremely high quality.
            This weekend:
            Gittens: 6274 (wind added)
            Hall: 6200
            Atherley: 6100

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            • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
              Tilga wins! 8484
              GS 8476
              ZZ 8213
              KS 7983

              I'm exhausted . . . but in a good way. 😊
              Looks like your guy’s summer just got booked up.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                This may be my bias showing, but I'm not sure 4 Americans will score 8350 this year, so the Qual could get you on the team . . . not that we are counting unhatched eggs!
                While scanting is my own favorite, I hope that you are wrong and four will make the Q.

                ZZ had a bad starch of five events (from the 400 to the JT) and still score 8,213. In a couple of months I think that he is more likely that not to get the automatic qualification.

                The big question mark is D. Williams and Simmons. Pre-corona I was willing to bet that both will get the Q. However, both are MIA so any estimate on their ability will be wishful thinking rather than educated bad guess like always.

                H. Williams has the talent to make it, but so far he failed to translate it to a good decathlon.

                Behind there are few decathletes at the low 8K level that one of them can have a breakthrough. For example, Ehrhardt broke his PB in the HJ by 10cm (almost 100 points) from 2.02 to 2.12 in March. A similar improvement in another event, (e.g. JT from the current 53m to close to 60m, or LJ from 7.44 to ~7.70) will see him in the level of pre-corona Simmons.

                Further down there are several decathletes in 7.8K shape that are unlikely to get the Q and have little hope of making the team. These decathletes continue to compete against all odds, in the most gulling event in T&F and possibly in the entire Olympic calendar. I really admire such athletes and hope against all hope that one of them will make it.

                Edit: and of course Garland that didn't have a mark in the LJ this week (hope it is not an injury), but have the potential to score 8350.

                So to make a long story short - I would say roughly 50-50 for four Americans with the Q.
                Last edited by olorin; 04-11-2021, 01:20 AM.

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                • Originally posted by olorin View Post
                  So to make a long story short - I would say roughly 50-50 for four Americans with the Q.
                  It would be best if at least 4 make it, so we have a choice. DW and ZZ are indeed strong possibilities, maybe even Simmons, but not all three of them. I'll go 40-60.


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                  • Garrett Scantling embarrassing facts:

                    When he was in 7th grade, there were MS girls better than him in his two events (and much bigger).

                    HJ: 5-0
                    PV: 7-6

                    There wasn't a muscle to be seen anywhere on his body. But he was a natural at everything he did. The dean knew him well, but everyone loved his personality.

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                    • I am curious what you informed members think of ZZ's next move...

                      He ran like hell, setting a PR in the 1500m at Spec Towns... I assume, besided being a gutsy run, to grab as many World Ranking points as possible. His effort gave him a solid score of 8213, but not the auto-Q of 8350.

                      In June 2019 he finished 2nd at Decastar, 8344, 6 friggin points shy of the auto-Q.. but that did give him 1180 'result' points + 90 'place' points for a total of 1270... but going into Spec Towns he was not ranked, because that was his only score(?). His Spec Towns 8213 is worth 1159 'result' points + a measly 3 'place' points(?), for a total of 1162. The average those two scores would have his current WA ranking = 1216. Currently, as of April 6th, Road-to-Tokyo's 23rd slot was 1217 (Nowak-GER) and 24th was 1206 (Rolnin-FRA).

                      If my above calcs are correct... Scantling would move in as an auto-Q, as well as Tilga, who would replace Estonia's Oiglane... but that would push Nowak to 24th and ZZ to a current rank of 25th... not that being 24th would provide any sense of long-term comfort.

                      So, what's ZZ's next move... IF invited, WA combined event challenges is where he could go for the auto-Q, and if not, at least earn big place points to bolster his ranking... The problem there is, the Lana, Italy meet is only 2 weeks away (April 24-25), and Gotzis (May 29-30) would be less than 3 weeks away from Deca Oly Trials... or does he try and find a good weather deca in mid-May... or does he roll the dice and put it all on the line at Eugene. Now, I'm really pulling for the guy.

                      Any thoughts?

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                      • I think that the most likely to be informed is 26mi235.

                        The other open question is how many quota places will be left after the Europeans (and the rest) join the party. I don't think 24 will make the auto-Q, but I would guess it would be roughly 20. So, if I was advising ZZ (and of course I know nothing about his physical/mental state) I would try to maximize the probability to score 8350 (which he should be capable) rather than chasing placing points in Lana or Gotzis.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by olorin View Post
                          if I was advising ZZ (and of course I know nothing about his physical/mental state)
                          That's the key. If he feels strong, he goes again in one month at a venue in the states that he's comfortable at.
                          Otherwise, train for 2 good months and depend on a solid OT to get the auto-Q.

                          Comment


                          • Men's USA/NCAA decathlon file updated (same link)... Scantling goal upgraded to 8650 w/ max HJ=2.04/6-8 1/4... file now includes SBs... added NCAAers Neugebauer and Owens in addition to Tilga (kept everyone at 8350 auto Q goal for now... yes I know, maybe not realistic for a few):
                            https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-07...LHZo0tqK-/view

                            Women's USA/NCAA heptathlon file now available... 10 heptathletes covered... except for Bougard/Williams (they have auto-Q, goal=6750), everyone is at 6420 auto-Q goal for now, despite being out of reach for some (these may change to estimates/projections come big meets). Looks like Kunz, Hall and Brooks really fighting for that 3rd spot, w/ Kunz and Hall already showing great form this season, with SBs adding to over 6420 already. Top-3 NCAAers also covered: Gittens, Hall, Atherly
                            https://drive.google.com/file/d/11Dw...TY_WWWaQq/view
                            Last edited by miketandf; 04-13-2021, 06:01 PM.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by miketandf View Post
                              Men's USA/NCAA decathlon file updated (same link)... Scantling goal upgraded to 8650 w/ max HJ=2.04/6-8 1/4... file now includes SBs... added NCAAers Neugebauer and Owens in addition to Tilga (kept everyone at 8350 auto Q goal for now... yes I know, maybe not realistic for a few):
                              https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-07...LHZo0tqK-/view

                              Women's USA/NCAA heptathlon file now available... 10 heptathletes covered... except for Bougard/Williams (they have auto-Q, goal=6750), everyone is at 6420 auto-Q goal for now, despite being out of reach for some (these may change to estimates/projections come big meets). Looks like Kunz, Hall and Brooks really fighting for that 3rd spot, w/ Kunz and Hall already showing great form this season, with SBs adding to over 6420 already. Top-3 NCAAers also covered: Gittens, Hall, Atherly
                              https://drive.google.com/file/d/11Dw...TY_WWWaQq/view
                              Nice analysis! Thanks.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by miketandf View Post
                                Scantling goal upgraded to 8650 w/ max HJ=2.04/6-8 1/4.
                                Thanks!
                                I still think his 100/110H/DT are overdue for PRs.
                                His LJ/SP/PV/JT (near 70 foul) are solid.
                                With a 2.13 PR (at almost the same weight), his HJ should be better - he jumped 2.06 in HS, frevinsake!
                                His new 400 PR indicates fitness, but he MUST find a way to improve his 1500. He had a 90 pt cushion for 3rd after 9 events and finished . . . 4th.

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