2021 multi-event

[olorin]

As the 2021 season progresses it seems that the fight for the American team and the NCAA titles in both the Decathlon and Heptathlon will be very close one. While there is no superstars such as Eaton and Hardee the depth is amazing and many athletes showing great progress recently.
In this thread (that I will try to keep open at least until the American trials) I will update about the progress of the main contenders. For those that remember my thread (with GK) in previous years it will be less detailed and only the very best will be followed.

Below is a list of the athletes that I will follow, their sum of PBs and their PB in the Dec/Hep. Additionally, I will update about other favorites of mine (e.g. Dubler and Warner).
Decathlon US (cut-off 8550 sum of PBs)

Name	DOB	Sum	Dec
Scantling	19/05/1993	8796	8232
Ziemek	23/02/1993	8782	8413
D. Williams	17/01/1994	8680	8345
H. Williams	07/03/1996	8655	8188
Simmons	26/09/1993	8579	8227

Knocking on the door – Earhardt & Filip


Heptathlon US (cut-off 6350 sum of PBs)

Name	DOB	Sum	Hep
Bougard	29/07/1993	6886	6725
Williams	23/09/1995	6818	6610
Kunz	16/02/1993	6530	6153
Brooks	08/02/1995	6452	6252
Hall*	23/03/2001	6410	5787
Hawkins	21/05/1991	6403	6230
Zamzow	13/08/1996	6379	6222
Cooks	06/12/1993	6366	6111

Collegiate decathlon (cut-off 8200 sum of PBs)

Name	Year	Collage	Sum	Dec
Erm	Jr-3	Georgia	8738	8445
Tilga	So-2	Georgia	8576	8101
Garland	Fr-1	Georgia	8322	?
Neugebauer	So-2	Texas	8319	?
Owens	So-2	Michigan	8300	8130
Lawson	Sr-4	Kent state	8238	7876

Knocking on the door Bellengee and Vollmer


Collegiate Heptathlon (6100 sum of PBs)

Name	Year	Collage	Sum	Hep
Gittens	Sr-4	Texas A&M	6488	6074
Hall	Fr-1	Georgia	6410	5787
Atherley	Sr-4	Miami	6326	6014
Marsh	SR-4	Duke	6110	5869

[Atticus]

Thanks!

Scantling is Garrett with a G.

He will do the Ga Dec/Hep this Fri/Sat. His one Hep this winter portends a Dec PR right out of the gate, but I don't wanna jinx him!

[Atticus]

Just my rough estimates say that Ziemek, D Williams and Scantling are the top 3 and all have legit shots at 8500 at the Trials if they peak well.
Simmons is close to them.
H Williams in the 8300 range.
And Garland is the scary one with huge potential. If he gets the Discus, PV and Javelin in line, he'll be well over 8300. And that's just for now. He has Rafer Johnson talent.

[olorin]

Thanks!

Scantling is Garrett with a G.

He will do the Ga Dec/Hep this Fri/Sat. His one Hep this winter portends a Dec PR right out of the gate, but I don't wanna jinx him!

Apologies for the pre-mature nature of this post.
I was still editing it, when I accidently push the post bottom and then the system locked me out from any additional editing (gh??) until the topic will be approved.
Re decathlon - I always thought that Taiwo, Nixon, Scantling and now Garland has the most protentional of the post-Eaton American decathletes. I hope I don't jinx him, but I think that he will score more than ZZ and D. Williams and wouldn't be surprised if comes July we will mention him as a medal contender alongside Victor, Kazmirek, Uibo and Kaul.

[Atticus]

I always thought that Taiwo, Nixon, Scantlings and now Garland has the most protentional of the post-Eaton American decathletes. I hope I don't jinx him but I think that he will score more than ZZ and D. Williams and wouldn't be surprise if come July we will mention him as a medal contender alongside Victor, Kazmirek, Uibo and Kaul.

You think Garland will develop that fast? I'd say Eugene22 is a good target for a medal.

[olorin]

You think Garland will develop that fast? I'd say Eugene22 is a good target for a medal.

I meant your guy not Garland. As for Garland, given his 6,200 heptathlon, I think that he should score around the qualification mark (8350) and have an outside chance of making the team. I hope for much (much) more from Scantling.

[Atticus]

I meant your guy not Garland. As for Garland, given his 6,200 heptathlon, I think that he should score around the qualification mark (8350) and have an outside chance for making the team. I hope for much (much) more from Scantlings.

Oh. yes, I absolutely think GS will be big this summer, but I'm hardly objective; I love him like a son.

[Wamerdam]

Per olorin’s chart, you left off Bastien, he has has beaten 4 of the 7 listed on your chart in head to head competition, Erhardt and filip several times, Twice 4th at USA championships. 4270 opener day one last week despite only 49.2 400 in 15mph gusts (pr 47.3) A fluke bad vault,1.5 feet below his pr, prevented 8250-8300+ score. Having a ranking cutoff based on all-time pr lacks understanding of the event.

[Atticus]

Having a ranking cutoff based on all-time pr lacks understanding of the event.

So let me get this right, olorin lacks understanding of the event.
Yeah, OK . . .
I don't see that you included Bastien's (whom I agree will be a player this year) numbers, so feel free to give all his PRs, and an analysis of his strengths and weaknesses. That should right this egregious wrong.
P.S. A line must be determined and drawn, and he did that in a reasonable way.

Sorry for the tone, I'm feeling defensive about a valuable resource here.

[Wamerdam]

And your point is mine too when you you said of Bastien. “Whom I agree will be a player this year.” The main point is, Oleins chart doesnt list him as a player, but lists guys he has beaten several times, filip and erhart (most recently at the most recent outdoor USAchampionships 2019 (check per covid cancels, could be 2018. Also, beat simmons at the thorpe cup in knoxville,. His strength, 100m 10.6, long jump 7.7 meters (recent triple hitchkick will put him closer 8.0, 47 low 400, biggest asset? Coached by jerry clayton in the throws and is currently doing what simmons and williams finally did last year, learned to throw the discus and shot. High jump, 6’10” plus(dont know the meters. Other marks, would have to look up but in a row roughly 10.62, 25’3” 46’3”, 6’10.25, 47.2, 14.5, 42.6, 5.0, 58, 4:29 If that doesn’t come out to 8500, it has to be close.
With clayton and other Michigan staff, training with ayden owens, jack lint, maturity and with more than zero open meets or decathlons in 1.5 years, he posted anothe 8000 plus score in crap weather. this year could easily turn into 10.6, 8.0, 14.63, 2.08 46.8 14.4, 46.33, 5.0 60.35 4:23 (8774) will he score that? No, like i said, personal bests are an inaccurate way to Prognosticate a decathlon score.But if you look at Orlerons chart, you will find a decathlete will score between 90 to 97% of his personal bests in a decathlon. If you feel compelled to use personal best totals to prognosticate, then see who has performed at 95-97 percent of their personal bests their last five decathlons., in that Prognostication exercise you will find, both your gamers on days like the Olympic trials, performing at their highest level, and also your Olympians, Bastien .Not saying simmons and devon have not found definitely found their in elusive events that take time and maturity, they have, and both are poised, i believe for 8400- to possibly 8600 point scores on a Gamers day. Just saying, to leave bastien, a consistent gamer, off that chart is like you said, an oversight. Also, his most recent 4th place finish at Usa championships was nary 5 months after hernia surgery, the things stats never show. (For any athlete) As for statements like, “if only xyz athlete can learn to throw the discus, pole vault, javelin, he would be an olympic medalist this Summer? (But also only runs close to a five minute 1500. (Which is 4 of the 10 events) these also show a lack if understanding of the throwing events learning curve And to some extent the decathlon itself.As a former 12 year Ncaa div I throwing coach, i Routinely witness elite Decathletes struggle with the javelin and discus learning curve over a 4 to 6 year period. Dont believe me? Look how long it took Simmons williams to throw the discus well. 5-6 for simmons, same for williams. Williams is still learning the javelin, Solomon working on his consistency, his range in the javelin still goes from 170 feet to 216 feet. They are both getting better in the javelin still. Dan 0’Bryan articulated and Explained this javelin and discus learning curve on National TV the struggles him and Eaton had in learning the javelin. Look at the learning curve for Ashton Eaton’s javelin and How slow the progression is,His shot was the same, Frankly he never really did learn how to throw the discus. My point is, thinking somebody like kyle frim Georgia is going to learn how to throw the discus and javelin from March to June of this year, run a 4:50 1500 and medal at the Olympics? Wow. Also, A (men’s heptathlon score has little to do with a great decathlon score, especially when you’re in the novice level throwing stage. Every year the top 10 NCAA indoor heptathlete Are filled with guys who can barely muster a 7400 or 500 decathlon score. Why?Primarily because there is no measure of speed endurance like a 400 m in an indoor hep, no javelin, no discus. As soon as you throw 400 into a multi score there you have guys that can only run 51 to 53 seconds in a 400 and suddenly they’re not a national college level decathlete even though they are a national college level heptathlete. This is still true for a 6000 to 6200 point hep in a different way. Scoring 6200 in the hep does not equate to a 8600 decathlete. Why? The indoor hep is still a sprint event. (But lacks the measurement of speed endurance, specifically the 400 m., There are many fast people who can run a great hurdles indoors and a great 60 m indoors but absolutely stink in a 400 m, killing a good decathlon score)A great sprinter hurdler it’s not necessarily a 47.0 400 runner he might run 51-52 flat. A great shot putter in the indoor hep especially a young one, Does not automatically mean they can throw the discus or the jav well. A big guy who can hold on during indoor hep and run a respectable 1000 of 2:47-2:50, only runs a 4:50:5:05 1500 (giving up hundreds of points to a guy like ashton eaton harrison williams.)Suddenly a 6200 point hep second day can look like, 14.8, 39.0 4.5, 54.25 and 4:55, very ver far from a olympic medal day two that would probably look like: 14.1, 50, 5.18, 67, 4:20. I think prognosticators have forgotten that this event has few prodigies., The most recent being Ayden Owens is currently at Michigan, or a Bob Mathias, Daley Thompson, Gunner Nixon. Fact is, All great decathlete are sprinter jumpers, but early in their career those skills don’t automatically make a person a great hurdler discus thrower javelin thrower pole vaulter or 1500 m runner. I once witnessed an early decathlon of Orville Peterson, A decathlete im the 1980’s in an early decathlon, first day decathlon go 4300-4400 day one, (just guessing (something like: 10.7, 25 feet, 52, 7 ft, 47.0, then day two was 16.5, 118, 11’6”, 158, 5:15. Probably the best example of the difference between a sprinter and Decathlete. Orville did get deca down, eventually win I think the NCAA meet. But my point is it takes time, you need to know the history of this event in order to make predictions like you’re making. You need to intimately understand if you will not master the throwing in just a matter of months it usually takes 3 to 6 years. If you know the secret formula to teach a decathlete to throw a javelin and discus consistently 48m and 60 plus consistently in high pressure meet situations in less than 90 days, bottle and sell it and make a million. (it took Solomon And Devon five years but they’ve done it. Bastien, Erhart, Filip are either doing or on the cusp, for bastien, he has clayton, one if the best throwing coaches so hang in folks) Also, you cant take a 6’5” 225 pounds 6200 point heptathlete from Georgia and drop him from 4:50 seconds in the 1500 down to four minutes and 25 seconds in 90 days, bottle that too. All of this said I agree with you the depth is absolutely amazing. On the day of the Olympic trials,this will be a game of survival, and who is a game day gamer.And who has the ability and experience to make no mistakes, in big meets like the Olympics or world championships comes game day control. I agree with the chart except maybe harrison, Don’t forget he did not qualify for the world championship standard of 8200 he was let in with 8177., But for some windy conditions and rain conditions he could have easily finished fourth to Bastien’s third at the USA championships that put him on the world championship team. (Bastien Drew terrible lane assignments in 4mph in hurdles and lane one flooded track 400m dripping his 47.3 400 to 49 plus.)sorry for the long explanation, but there certainly was an air of “possibly i am notqualified,” challenge to my post. you left bastien off and that total personal Bests have no place for statistics in a decathlon prognostication. All this said to a great extent I agree with you, scantling, zz, devon, solomon,( bastien and harrisonin there, both improving. Kyle too young but look out in 22 and beyond (really lookout)

[gh]

an impassioned response, to be sure, but have you ever heard of paragraphs?

[Atticus]

[Large swaths of grayness]

To one of my level of ADD, this is unreadable.

[gktrack]

Thanks olorin for the informative info. I follow the deca/hept very closely and always enjoy your posts. Any full-time reader of these threads knows and understands your intent... and that is to be informative, helpful and provide unbiased data. Please keep your analyses coming and I hope you enjoy what should be an exciting deca/hept season. Atticus: best wishes to Garrett, he looks primed for a great season. Enjoy...

[Retread]

Wamerdam, you are extremely knowledgeable and passionate about the multi events. I hope you will give us the benefit of that knowledge more in the future, but please in a more positive way! Olorin works hard for his analysis and is also very knowledgeable. Many of us on this site truly enjoy and appreciate his analysis and take offense to your tone. I hope he will not be discouraged and will keep providing his expertise for our benefit!

[Atticus]

Scantling will do the Ga Dec/Hep this Fri/Sat.

Pretty stacked field!

Zach Ziemek
Garrett Scantling
Devon Williams
Kyle Garland
Karl Saluri'
Karel Tilda'

The bolded are my early faves to make the team and Garland is the dark horse!

Hep should be good with these two heading the field:

Anna Hall
Kendell Williams

In the concomitant meet, Mr. Boling is in the 100 and Long Jump, maybe even some relays.