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Tokyo women's 4x4 [split]

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  • Tokyo women's 4x4 [split]

    this deserves its own thread

  • #2
    Originally posted by 18.99s View Post

    Little should drop the 400H and focus on the flat. She's been consistently inconsistent with the hurdles, and she'd be fighting for 3rd place at the trials while staring at the backs of SM and DM, whereas if she maintains this form it's very unlikely 3 women would beat her in the flat 400.
    So which 400 runner can make the 4x400 team [smirk, but only sort of]? This quite fast for the 400, but nowhere near the top, whereas her 400 speed puts her in the hunt for the 400h.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by 26mi235 View Post
      So which 400 runner can make the 4x400 team [smirk, but only sort of]? This quite fast for the 400, but nowhere near the top, whereas her 400 speed puts her in the hunt for the 400h.
      Jonathas, Wimbley, Ellis, Hayes, (Mu) . . . Felix. + Roberts, if she shows the guts she did in iNCAA.
      On the other hand, I agree that Muhammad, McLaughlin, and Little are A+ picks for the relay, not only for their speed, but their strength. They are not going to fade in the final straight!

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      • #4
        Originally posted by 18.99s View Post
        Given that the 400m final is on day 3 of the trials and the 400h begins on day 8, with that amount of time to recover between events it would be self-sabotage if she doesn't attempt both. Or coach-induced sabotage if it's her coach who makes that decision.
        Though I agree the schedule essentially makes it super easy for anyone to just try out the flat and hurdles, I'm willing to bet we wont see all of the top 4 hurdlers run both (Muhammad, McLaughlin, Little, Spencer), despite all of them being capable of running sub 50.

        I would love to be wrong though.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by ATK View Post

          Though I agree the schedule essentially makes it super easy for anyone to just try out the flat and hurdles, I'm willing to bet we wont see all of the top 4 hurdlers run both (Muhammad, McLaughlin, Little, Spencer), despite all of them being capable of running sub 50.

          I would love to be wrong though.
          One thing running the open 400 might do is solidify spots on the relay team for the 400 hurdlers. Let's say Little finishes 4th in the 400, wouldn't her spot on the relay be carved in granite regardless of what she does in the 400H?

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          • #6
            Originally posted by jazzcyclist View Post

            One thing running the open 400 might do is solidify spots on the relay team for the 400 hurdlers. Let's say Little finishes 4th in the 400, wouldn't her spot on the relay be carved in granite regardless of what she does in the 400H?
            Maybe in normal times, but recent history has shown that the 400h duo have been the top two, leaving only two spots in the final. Of course if Little makes the team in the 400h she is a no-cost available runner for the 4x400. That still might get her just on the Prelim.

            As for the two meters per second, would American know anymore it they said 4.4 mph or six and a half feet per second. The 2.0 mps is a cleaner expression.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by 26mi235 View Post

              Maybe in normal times, but recent history has shown that the 400h duo have been the top two, leaving only two spots in the final. Of course if Little makes the team in the 400h she is a no-cost available runner for the 4x400. That still might get her just on the Prelim.
              I wasn't making any predictions about who runs in the 4x400 final, only who the six runners will be that are used in the heats and final. Wouldn't a runner who finished 4th in the open 400 be guaranteed at least a spot in the heats? Also, with a PR of 50.60 and a modest 49.5 relay split in Doha, Muhammad hasn't done anything to give me confidence that she's more deserving of a spot than the top 6 in 400 runners at the Trials.
              Last edited by jazzcyclist; 04-12-2021, 11:34 AM.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by jazzcyclist View Post

                I wasn't making any predictions about who runs in the 4x400 final, only who the six runners will be that are used in the heats and final. Wouldn't a runner who finished 4th in the open 400 be guaranteed at least a spot in the heats? Also, with a PR of 50.60 and a modest 49.5 relay split in Doha, Muhammad hasn't done anything to give me confidence that she's more deserving of a spot than the top 6 in 400 runners at the Trials.
                I think Doha showed that as long as they are in Tokyo and healthy, Muhammad and McLaughlin are the top 2 ladies for the relay as of now and the rest of the team gets picked around them. Muhammad's modest relay split was faster than everyone in Doha except McLaughlin, including the 4th and 5th place from the 400m. There are also very few people not named Felix and Richards-Ross who have run faster relay splits than Muhammad did in recent memory.

                And the relay is a lot of politics and PR anyway. I'm not sure any US flat runner, aside from Felix, has bigger name recognition than Muhammad and McLaughlin right now, so with them also being fast, its a no brainer to have them run the final women's event when the cameras are on.

                NBC is salivating at a team of Felix/McLaughlin/Muhammad + 1. And if Shamire Little decides to bring back her hair bow they loved, it might be over.
                Last edited by ATK; 04-12-2021, 12:42 PM.

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                • #9
                  The plus point in having Muhammad and McLaughlin in the 4x4 is they will be more rested than the 400m flat runners, as the hurdles are right at the start of the programme. Runners 4 & 5 in the US Trials 400m may find themselves in the mixed relay, which isn't advisable for the 400mhurdlers as there is an overlap.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post
                    Runners 4 & 5 in the US Trials 400m may find themselves in the mixed relay, which isn't advisable for the 400mhurdlers as there is an overlap.
                    If Felix is there in any capacity, look for her to be in the Final of that!

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by jazzcyclist View Post
                      If Muhammad were to run the 400 at the Trials I doubt she would make the final.
                      I'd take that bet, not that I ever win bets!

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by jazzcyclist View Post
                        and she only managed 49.5 in the relay, which is pretty average by American standards unless it's the scratch leg.
                        How many other American women not named Allyson and Sanya have been running 49.5 or faster legs on the relay at global championships in the past decade? I'm willing to bet It's not an extensive list.
                        Last edited by ATK; 04-12-2021, 08:02 PM.

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                        • #13
                          and Muhammad's Doha split, to be precise, was 49.43

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by ATK View Post
                            How many other American women not named Allyson and Sanya have been running 49.5 or faster legs on the relay at global championships in the past decade? I'm willing to bet It's not an extensive list.
                            Without looking it up, I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that outside of Richards and Felix, the list of American women who have run 49.5 or faster relay splits or the equivalent in the open 400 (50.2?) since 2011 Is greater than 6 and I wouldn't be surprised if it was 10 or more.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by jazzcyclist View Post
                              Without looking it up, I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that outside of Richards and Felix, the list of American women who have run 49.5 or faster relay splits or the equivalent in the open 400 (50.2?) since 2011 Is greater than 6 and I wouldn't be surprised if it was 10 or more.
                              Had time so looked it up now (used all-time athletics). In all Olympic/World Championship relay prelims & finals since Sydney 2000, excluding Felix and SRR, this is the list of sub 49.50 splits by American women.
                              1. Allyson Felix: 6 times
                              2. Sanya Richards-Ross: 5 times
                              3. Sydney McLaughlin: 48.8 (2nd leg Doha 2019)
                              4. Natasha Hastings: 49.2 (2nd leg Rio 2016)
                              5. Francena McCorory:
                                • 49.25 (anchor leg Moscow 2013)
                                • 49.39 (3rd leg London 2012)
                              6. Shakima Wimbley: 49.41 (3rd leg London 2017)
                              7. Dalilah Muhammad: 49.43 (3rd leg Doha 2019)
                              So even with the active names of Beard, Okolo, Francis, or retired names like Trotter, Henderson, and Hennagan, who have all run multiple major relays, Dalilah Muhammad still finds herself in the top 5 after Felix and SRR.

                              The reason I cant justify counting the equivalent flat time is because most women (and men) dont replicate that on the relay, especially not at major champs. Of the 25 women who have run sub 50.30 (Ashely Spencer: 50.28) in the flat 400m since 2000, 21 have run on major championship relays, but only 4 women have run .50 or faster than their PR on any relay split (so I'm giving leeway on the conversion): Allyson Felix, Sydney McLaughlin, Monique Henderson and Natasha Hastings (+ Miles-Clark did it in the 90's).

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