Tokyo women's 4x4 [split]

[booond]

Don't forget, one of the reasons the USSR ran a WR was because there was another team that pushed them all the way. The US don't have that.

That was my next point.

In 2019, Jonathas ran 50.2 on the anchor because she could. She could've run 52.2 and won. The USA has no competition at 3:15. Even if you assume McLaughlin and Mu can run 49.0 from the blocks (a large assumption) and Jonathas can repeat her 49.6 from 2019 - she's only 23 so her prime might still be in the future - you not only need another 49.6 (it's possible) but you need a dance partner. Which nation can run 3:15 to push the USA?

***I'm using the Atticus 49.3 average from the blocks as the measure***

[ATK]

To add to the competition point, Felix ran her 2 fastest splits (47.7 in Beijing & 48.0 in Osaka) when chasing Jamaica from behind.

[dpasv]

This was my point previously...no company to share the multiple intensity required.

For those that remember, I would also add the ‘93 Stuttgart quartet that ran 3:16 (+1.2s) that day. After Torrence opened with 49.0x, they were essentially in time trial mode. They even admitted such in post-race interview.

[_Jay]

the 2012 women's 4x4 team was the most recent chance for a serious shot at the WR, but even then all 4 of them "underperformed" what they were capable of.

McLaughlin and Mu are a good 1-2 punch as they can split 48.x but they would need 48 low. After that it's pretty impossible as there aren't 2 other athletes capable of 49 low/48 high on the relay right now.

I disagree. Felix showed she’s in basically high 49 shape in the open. Based on her relay carry history….a 49 low split is probably a safe bet IMO. By the time we get to Tokyo, she may be able to dip under 49.

To the earlier point, I agree….the WR seems out of reach at the moment, with everyone needing to produce their best at the same time, which is unlikely.

[1.609]

Even in 2024, when we should have McLaughlin and Mu in top shape in their early/mid 20s, we would still have to come up with 2 other amazing runners. And I don't see any 400 runners in high school or college right now that I think will be able to run fast enough by 2024 to break the world record.

Not so fast. The US team that was a close second to that USSR record squad in 3:15.51 had 2 runners with personal bests of 49.87 and 49.84. Both ran almost precisely to what you could want in that race from those PBs - Denean Howard 49.82 from the blocks, and Diane Dixon 49.17 second leg. I can easily see the US having 2 49.8-ish runners who run to form the first 2 legs, to go with McLaughlin and Mu in 3 years . Then all you have to do is imagine the 2 heavyweights, 3 years from now, averaging 48.13 between them. I can see Mu being at least a second better than her NCAA split 3 years from now. That would mean Syd would need a 48.51 carry to break the WR. None of this is remotely unreasonable to me, based on their youth and potential. 2 49.8 athletes plus the Mu and McLaughlin of 3 years hence....could well happen.

[_Jay]

To add to the competition point, Felix ran her 2 fastest splits (47.7 in Beijing & 48.0 in Osaka) when chasing Jamaica from behind.

She also has a 48.8 leg from 2017 where she finished her leg 20m in front of the competition.

[_Jay]

Just some quick math for reference.

1st - Hayes 49.7
2nd - Felix 48.8
3rd - McLaughlin 48.6
4th - Mu 48.8

= 3:15.9

This is probably a best case scenario assuming they will be running alone from halfway through the second leg. But definitely something they are capable of, IMO. 3:16 high seems very doable…

[1.609]

Just some quick math for reference.

1st - Hayes 49.7
2nd - Felix 48.8
3rd - McLaughlin 48.6
4th - Mu 48.8

= 3:15.9

This is probably a best case scenario assuming they will be running alone from halfway through the second leg. But definitely something they are capable of, IMO. 3:16 high seems very doable…

You could actually tweak that just a tad and go 49.7/48.6/48.3/48.56 for a WR.

[RunningInCircles]

Not so fast. The US team that was a close second to that USSR record squad in 3:15.51 had 2 runners with personal bests of 49.87 and 49.84. Both ran almost precisely to what you could want in that race from those PBs - Denean Howard 49.82 from the blocks, and Diane Dixon 49.17 second leg. I can easily see the US having 2 49.8-ish runners to go with McLaughlin and Mu in 3 years. Then all you have to do is imagine the 2 heavyweights, 3 years from now, averaging 48.09 between them. I can see Mu being at least a second better than her NCAA split 3 years from now. That would mean Syd would need a 48.32 carry to break the WR. None of this is remotely unreasonable to me, based on their youth and potential. 2 49.8 athletes plus the Mu and McLaughlin of 3 years hence....could well happen.

Keep in mind that at any future Olympics/World Championships Mu and McLaughlin would have at least 3 races in their legs the week of the 4x400. (Maybe even more if McLaughlin did the 400/400H double and Mu did the 400/800 double. Or if either ran in the prelims of the 4x400.)

And then you would have to get a little lucky and hope that all four runners ran at, or very close to, their PBs. How often do all four do that? Very rarely. There's almost always one or two runners in a relay that have an off day.

If the top four 400 runners were banned from running anything except for the 4x400 final (which obviously won't ever happen) they would have a much better chance of breaking the world record in the 4x400 because they would be fresh.

You would also need all 3 baton passes to be great, which sounds doable, except for the fact that they often don't actually pull it off.

On top of all that, you would need all four of them to actually care about breaking the world record, and push to the max. But in reality, some of them would probably be happy with "just" the gold medal.

Do you know why the 4x400 record has lasted since 1988? Because it's a really HARD record to break. To break it a lot of things would have to go right all at the same time.

Having said all that, I hope you're right, because that's a record that I'd like to see broken.

[ATK]

She also has a 48.8 leg from 2017 where she finished her leg 20m in front of the competition.

Yes there are Ofcourse exceptions. SRR's fastest split, 48.43 from Berlin 2009, she got the baton 20-30m in the lead and they ran (at the time) the 6th fastest race in history. But in general as others have noted, competition will breed fast times. Its very tough to have 4 legs run their best by themselves on the same day.

The relay era of SRR/Felix was the greatest since the 80s/90s. Thoes two really uplifted the other ladies on the team. Notice once SRR's career went downhill and was essentially over (2015) no 4x4 team has run faster than any of the 5 championship times from 2007-2012.

Maybe Mu and McLaughlin will replace them, but I would be shocked to see sub 3:18 in Tokyo this year.

[1.609]

Do you know why the 4x400 record has lasted since 1988? Because it's a really HARD record to break. To break it a lot of things would have to go right all at the same time.

Having said all that, I hope you're right, because that's a record that I'd like to see broken.

Yes I know what year it is, I also think the US just may have a couple of runners who are set to show the world things it hasn't yet seen, all in good time.
The record is hard to beat, and runners like Mu and McLaughlin, likewise, are not a dime a dozen.

[TN1965]

She also has a 48.8 leg from 2017 where she finished her leg 20m in front of the competition.

1.1 second slower than 2015. (Her SB in 2017 was 0.41 slower than 2015.)

If another team cannot push the USA, we need pacing lights to see the WR.

[jazzcyclist]

That was my next point.

In 2019, Jonathas ran 50.2 on the anchor because she could. She could've run 52.2 and won. The USA has no competition at 3:15. Even if you assume McLaughlin and Mu can run 49.0 from the blocks (a large assumption) and Jonathas can repeat her 49.6 from 2019 - she's only 23 so her prime might still be in the future - you not only need another 49.6 (it's possible) but you need a dance partner. Which nation can run 3:15 to push the USA?

***I'm using the Atticus 49.3 average from the blocks as the measure***

The implication of all this is that American women quartermilers can't time trial which has never been a problem for American men quartermilers when they were chasing history.

[booond]

The implication of all this is that American women quartermilers can't time trial which has never been a problem for American men quartermilers when they were chasing history.

You're reading this as sexist? What a ridiculous take.

[Wiederganger]

It's worth noting that Felix's 'slowest' leg in recent years was from 2016, a 49.66 leg...on anchor. So even though she was in better form that in 2017, where she ran a 48.7 leg, and even though she took that baton on anchor only just ahead of Jamaica, she still didn't run as fast as previous years or the following year. Is the leg she runs on significant? She has always tended to run 2nd leg, and that is where she has run her fastest times (even when way below form in 2019, she still ran 49.8 on leg 2 in the heats).

So it might be safe to keep Felix on leg 2 if you want her absolute best/fastest run - if you are going for a fast time - or else give her the glory leg 4 and get the win, but not as fast!

Whilst a line-up and order of 1st - Hayes; 2nd - Felix; 3rd - McLaughlin; 4th - Mu makes some sense on paper, one would expect Jonathas would get a run as a top 3 in the 400m. I know they didn't include Ellis in 2019 but she was clearly out of shape, but surely if Jonathas is in form - and all 3 Americans make the final - they will use Hayes, Felix and Jonathas + AN Other? Otherwise, if one of the top 3 in the Trials doesn't make the individual final, then they are out of the 4x4 final, which leaves room for both Syd and Mu.