Tokyo women's 4x4 [split]

[booond]

Pacing lights please.

That can work, too. As the psychology is to try and stay with the lights though there is also a shaming of the runner/team when they fall off. A competitor is more do or die for a place, which should have more value than a time. I know, heresy.

[spikes007]

Would take the following splits..

1. Hayes - 49.8
2. Mu - 48.9 (could be lower but think her very long season will end up catching up to her, even though she's a freak athlete)
3. Felix - 49.2
4. McLaughlin - 48.0

[booond]

Would take the following splits..

1. Hayes - 49.8
2. Mu - 48.9 (could be lower but think her very long season will end up catching up to her, even though she's a freak athlete)
3. Felix - 49.2
4. McLaughlin - 48.0

This is why I mentioned the 1993 team as they are a super team that ran to their PBs.

While this team may end up with three great performers, one of them is no longer great and one of them may be a year or two from greatness. In 2024 you would have two great performers and hopefully you find a third to give you a shot at a record.

BTW, I'd cut off my arm before placing Mu as second leg.

[jazzcyclist]

So, this is all made up in your head without any facts... because you can't really have facts in a case like this. Better to use the word fierce a couple times and beat your chest about great American relay teams.

In 1993 the Men's 4x400 team ran to their combined 400 PBs. Nothing more than that. No time-trialing heroics, no fierceness (that word makes me laugh) they just ran what they were capable of. At that moment in time they were a great team (possibly the greatest set of 400 meter runners in history) - Johnson, Reynolds, and Watts all ended up with PBs below 43.5 - and ran to their greatness but not beyond their greatness.

The WC 2019 Women's team ran one second faster than their combined PBs. They were a good/solid team with the exception of possibly one runner who may be great. They did better than the 1993 Men's WR team for whatever reason that we can't quantify. Were they fierce, too?

I didn't say humans were incapable of time-trialing just like I didn't say women's teams were in capable of time-trialing. I said that having a competitor forces a team or individual to attempt to go beyond their means.

How silly must you be to get caught up on the word "fierce"? Choose your own word. What you and everyone else was talking about is a competitive race in which the outcome remained in doubt until the very end. And you know that you can't estimate the potential of a 4x400 team by simply calculating the sum of the PR's or SB's. You're not that stupid. Everyone knows that with good exchanges a a 4x400 can up to 2.0s faster than the sum of their open times if not faster. Next you're going to tell me that you can estimate 4x100 times by calculating the sum of 100 PR's.

When you show the blind the facts as plain as day,
They say "Where?", "What?", and look the other way.

[ATK]

but I also think that if the runners know or believe in real time that they are chasing history, they can dig as deep as they can against fierce competition, especially an anchor leg who knows that the his/her teammates have done the work to break a record and now it's all up to him/her to close the deal.

Just on this note because we actually have a recent example. The 2012 women's 4x4 team said they had set a goal of trying to break the American record because of the form they knew they were in. They all had run times that made it realistic (I posted the splits earlier in the thread). But they all "fell short". SRR "only" ran 49.10 on anchor, when a year ago she ran 49.3 from the 4x4 blocks and in 2009 she ran 48.4 on anchor.

They still ran 3:16 though which is insane, but I think that will hold as the millenium WR for a while (I would love to be wrong though!).

[TN1965]

What's ridiculous is saying that humans are incapable of doing this despite ample evidence to the contrary.

EDIT: The 7 fastest American men relay teams won by an average margin of more than 4 seconds. I differ with the theory that 4x400 records can only be broken when there's fierce competition. Of course fierce competition is one circumstance that pushes 4 runners to rise to occasion, but I also think that if the runners know or believe in real time that they are chasing history, they can dig as deep as they can against fierce competition, especially an anchor leg who knows that the his/her teammates have done the work to break a record and now it's all up to him/her to close the deal. That was the case for those great American men relay teams. For elite runners, especially American runners who've gone the collegiate system and have a history of running relays for conference championships, a big motivator is not letting down your teammates.

This is "evidence"?

These examples show only two things. (a) Team USA ran fast, and (b) their winning margin was large. It does not show anything about how close they ran to their potential. It does not snow how deep they dug when the record was on the line.

And I don't think anyone made an argument that 4x400 records can only be broken when there's fierce competition. It can be broken if the previous record is soft. In 1988, they broke a record that was 20 years old. In both 1992 and 1993, they broke an existing record that was set without fierce competition. But the current women's WR was set under fierce competition. It is so much harder to break that record.

[Tuariki]

This is "evidence"?
..........
But the current women's WR was set under fierce competition. It is so much harder to break that record.

That's not evidence.
That's just your opinion.

All WRs are hard to beat.

[TN1965]

That's not evidence.
That's just your opinion.

All WRs are hard to beat.

Where did I write it was evidence?
As for all WRs hard to beat, ask Desi Linden how hard it was to beat the 50k record.

[ATK]

Nigeria with an outside shot at making noise in the final. In Lagos today: 3:26.83 (Nse Uko - Knowledge Omovoh - Favour Ofili - Patience George)

[1.609]

In 2024 you would have two great performers and hopefully you find a third to give you a shot at a record.

.

No, you do NOT have to find a third great performer. As I've already detailed, 2 49.8 runners plus Mu running a second better than she did at NCAA (3 years from now) and Syd running 48.51, gives you a brand new world record. 49.8 is not great, it's 2 decent barely sub 50 runners. Anyone who doubts that Mu will be a second better 3 years hence is not dwelling in reality.

[ATK]

Anyone who doubts that Mu will be a second better 3 years hence is not dwelling in reality.

Mu can very well be a second faster in 3 years, but the chances of her running it at the exact same time 3 other runners are hitting their necessary splits as well is very unlikely.

[booond]

No, you do NOT have to find a third great performer. As I've already detailed, 2 49.8 runners plus Mu running a second better than she did at NCAA (3 years from now) and Syd running 48.51, gives you a brand new world record. 49.8 is not great, it's 2 decent barely sub 50 runners. Anyone who doubts that Mu will be a second better 3 years hence is not dwelling in reality.

You don't have to shout or be fierce.

Why I say you need three greats is that to do this with two greats and two very goods you need the stars aligned (as does getting three greats together). In 2019 if Francis runs 49.6 and Jonathas anchors in 49.0 (both possible coming off their 400 times) they run 3:16.3. That would be peak for that quartet.

The American women had two greats - Felix and SRR - for multiple 4x400 races and never got close. And it isn't like they had poor runners with them. It wasn't possible because you needed perfection or close to perfection.

If you go by the Atticus theory that you need 4 runners who can run 49.3 out of the blocks (basically 4 Felixes) then you add Felix to 48.8 SRR to a 48.5 Mu (wishful thinking) and then a 50.6 might get you there if they are all on their game but you likely need a 49.5 to 50.0 to insure against any backsliding or poor passing (yeah passing can screw this up, too).

[booond]

As for all WRs hard to beat, ask Desi Linden how hard it was to beat the 50k record.

Tuariki overstates but he's basically correct and Linden beat a record in a race that is rarely contested. Most long time track and field records aren't soft unless the event is new or newish. Many are near impossible due to... won't say it.

[1.609]

You don't have to shout or be fierce.

Why I say you need three greats is that to do this with two greats and two very goods you need the stars aligned (as does getting three greats together). In 2019 if Francis runs 49.6 and Jonathas anchors in 49.0 (both possible coming off their 400 times) they run 3:16.3. That would be peak for that quartet.

The American women had two greats - Felix and SRR - for multiple 4x400 races and never got close. And it isn't like they had poor runners with them. It wasn't possible because you needed perfection or close to perfection.

If you go by the Atticus theory that you need 4 runners who can run 49.3 out of the blocks (basically 4 Felixes) then you add Felix to 48.8 SRR to a 48.5 Mu (wishful thinking) and then a 50.6 might get you there if they are all on their game but you likely need a 49.5 to 50.0 to insure against any backsliding or poor passing (yeah passing can screw this up, too).

Chill dude.

[Tuariki]

Many are near impossible due to... won't say it.

Extra long legs?

Just thinking of Usain 😁😁😁