Tokyo women's 4x4 [split]

[KevinR]

The debate might just be the best leg for Mu in particular.

• Leg 1 - I understand Mu out of the blocks isn't ideal, but at least it keeps her out of trouble. It's an ever so slightly longer leg, so that is also in her favour, and she avoids traffic. She also has the opportunity to give the US a big lead.
• Leg 2 - I get the reasoning on putting her on leg two, a running start and she is used to cutting in at the 100m mark in the 800m. However, her opening 100m in her 400 open PBs has been outside 12 secs (12.1 for her 49.68 and 12.2 for her 49.57). This is relatively 'slow' compared to the other top women who generally run sub 12. It is not unfeasible that a couple of other countries, or at least Jamaica, are in contention at leg 1, so she just has to be careful cutting across at speed. She may potentially be behind someone at the 100m mark, and even though she runs a fast second 100m, she is hitting 200m at around 23.5 and again, depending on the JAM order, she may be behind someone at 200m. This doesn't have to be an issue, but we are trying to keep risks low!
• Leg. 3 - This is usually the 'safe' leg for your slowest runners. The US could already have a big lead by then, depending on JAM running orders, but she can run people down.
• Leg 4 - this could work too, she's used to this leg, and if for some reason JAM are leading, she is used to running others down. She is also the future, and the glory leg would be great for her image.

For me, any leg but leg 2 makes sense, as leg 2 should be reserved for someone with a faster opening 100/200.

Side note: I would like to see the nations just outside medal shots taking more risks in their running order. Don't go for the traditional approach, look to putting your best on leg 1, or leg 2, etc., keep them in contention, meaning the other nations behind you are having to go wide at the exchange, which can get messy and cause them to lose meters. If you're not a definite like the US and JAM, and there is some differential between your 4 runners, go for something different and risk it, ala CZE in 1983.

Your thoughts on Leg 1 are the key point, here. Is the slower start from the blocks for Mu worth keeping her from having to tangle with others? She is still young and does not have the same experience that the others may have to muscle it out with other athletes and not break stride. Putting her on third leg should keep her from having too much traffic, but that exposes her to two baton exchanges. If I were asked to make the decision on order, I would really want to have a look at the team working together, first.

[ATK]

I think there is a bit of overthinking what leg each athlete should run and the idea of traffic. Does having 1 team around (Jamaica) mean there is traffic?

In the past 13 years, the only times there was "traffic" was in 2008 when Mary Wineberg ran a 51.0 first leg, and 2015 when SRR ran 51.5 on the first leg. Even 2013, the first team without SRR or Felix in over a decade at that point were clear and away after early on (running against a team that cheated)

So unless were assuming the 1st leg drastically under performs, I'm not convinced of this idea traffic.

[jazzcyclist]

I think there is a bit of overthinking what leg each athlete should run and the idea of traffic. Does having 1 team around (Jamaica) mean there is traffic?

In the past 13 years, the only times there was "traffic" was in 2008 when Mary Wineberg ran a 51.0 first leg, and 2015 when SRR ran 51.5 on the first leg. Even 2013, the first team without SRR or Felix in over a decade at that point were clear and away after early on (running against a team that cheated)

So unless were assuming the 1st leg drastically under performs, I'm not convinced of this idea traffic.

You may be right but there are 2 things that everyone seems to agree on:

1. Mu must run in the final.
2. No one trusts her in traffic.

[ATK]

Yes, like most others I think Mu must run the final (+McLaughlin).

But there is a strange part of me that can imagine a world where Mu ends up the odd woman out If it came down to it.

[Steele]

Mu running a sub-50 on the opening leg is a giant advantage and removes all the other variables (slow first 100, cutting in, passing in traffic). That's my vote.

[NotDutra5]

Yes, like most others I think Mu must run the final (+McLaughlin).

But there is a strange part of me that can imagine a world where Mu ends up the odd woman out If it came down to it.

If strange means shaking our collective heads in a WTF are they thinking fashion then it definitely is strange.

[ATK]

If strange means shaking our collective heads in a WTF are they thinking fashion then it definitely is strange.

Im still caught in the scenario of the US 400m women sweeping the podium in the final (or finish 2-4 with Felix in 4th).

[NotDutra5]

Im still caught in the scenario of the US 400m women sweeping the podium in the final (or finish 2-4 with Felix in 4th).

I think there's a much bigger chance of no medal over a sweep or even more than one medal. Assuming good health, I think there's next to no chance McLaughlin and Mu are not on the relay.

[1.609]

I'd put Mu on anchor because between the absence of blocks and the extra adrenaline, she's gonna be minimum 0.5 and maybe 0.7 more valuable.

[jazzcyclist]

I think there's a much bigger chance of no medal over a sweep or even more than one medal. Assuming good health, I think there's next to no chance McLaughlin and Mu are not on the relay.

Yep, they're names are carved in granite. Had Little performed at the Trials the way she performed in Stockholm, she might also be a lock.

[ATK]

I think there's a much bigger chance of no medal over a sweep or even more than one medal. Assuming good health, I think there's next to no chance McLaughlin and Mu are not on the relay.

Again I think Mu and McLaughlin are far and above the locks of the team. But crazier things have happened...

[beebee]

You may be right but there are 2 things that everyone seems to agree on:

1. Mu must run in the final.
2. No one trusts her in traffic.

Really? Has Mu ever been in and or screwed up a 4x400 due to traffic?

[gh]

Really? Has Mu ever been in and or screwed up a 4x400 due to traffic?

not a smart-ass response, but has she ever even been in 4x4 traffic? (at the college level)

[ATK]

not a smart-ass response, but has she ever even been in 4x4 traffic? (at the college level)

As I asked earlier, how is traffic defined? At NCAA indoors she got the baton in 2nd place behind USC and barely ahead of Arkansas.

[beebee]

not a smart-ass response, but has she ever even been in 4x4 traffic? (at the college level)

I considered that an honest question...I actually thought it was in reference to her age. Frankly I'd love to see her anchor.