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A new golden wave for the US 400m?...

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Atticus View Post
    I like the phase they're in now anyway, so I won't be fazed either!
    The Word Police are at it again....thank God!!
    LOL

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    • #17
      Originally posted by aaronk View Post
      The Word Police are at it again....thank God!!LOL
      I just like word-play; sue me!

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Atticus View Post
        I just like word-play; sue me!
        I can do better than sue you, and I quote from Board Guidelines:

        <<15. Critiquing of other posters' choice of words, spelling or grammar is not tolerated. English is not always everyone's first language and not everybody has the same level of education. If you wish to be a pedant, please do it elsewhere.>>

        laboring under the misconception that you're being funny isn't an accepted rationale.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by gh View Post
          laboring under the misconception that you're being funny isn't an accepted rationale.
          Ah yes, I remember your 'rank hath its privileges' post in a similar circumstance.
          It's on my mental bulletin board with 'if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen'.

          Noted. I shall endeavor to keep my linguistic humor (sic) within bounds.
          Last edited by Atticus; 05-04-2021, 11:35 PM.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by 79 View Post
            I see Noah Williams set a sub-44"00 soon. After his very brilliant indoors, his 44"30 looks like an extremely promising performance!
            I like Noah going under 44.00 as well and expect him to make the Olympic squad. This is indeed a new golden era for the US in the 400! I wont rule out a US sweep of the 400 in Tokyo, although I wont go as far as PREDICTING that.
            Last edited by Psyclone; 05-05-2021, 07:05 AM.

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            • #21
              To some this may sound a little too optimistic, and I am not predicting it, but, I wouldn't be surprised if it took sub 44S to make the Olympic final.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by Retread View Post
                To some this may sound a little too optimistic, and I am not predicting it, but, I wouldn't be surprised if it took sub 44S to make the Olympic final.
                To make the Olympic final? We're not at that point yet. I think Quincy Watts was the only person to ever run 43 seconds in any Olympic round. Last qualifiers from the previous 8 games:

                2016 - 44.49
                2012 - 44.99
                2008 - 44.91
                2004 - 45.27
                2000 - 45.53
                1996 - 45.04
                1992 - 45.09
                1988 - 44.74

                So it's maybe trending closer there. Here are the active sub 44 guys:
                Van Niekerk
                Norman
                Gardiner
                Kerley
                Merritt
                Makwala
                K James
                McDonald
                Bloomfield

                Remove Merritt, Makwala and McDonald and your left with 6 guys. 2 are American so you only get 1 more on the team to get 7. Assuming they all run sub 44 in the semis, you still need one more person to run a PB this year. Which is possible, but stars would have to align for that to happen. Maybe in LA or 2032, but doubt we'll see that in Tokyo or even Paris.

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                • #23
                  Very nice analysis ATK. It seems not unreasonable to me for 2 more PB's below 44 in Tokyo, though I wouldn't bet the house on it. The season is just beginning, especially outside the US!.

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                  • #24
                    Last major meet - WC 2019 - there was only one mark under 44.0 and that was Gardiner in the final.

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                    • #25
                      And then there were the infamous HEATS in the 2015 WCs:

                      Heat 1
                      Verburg 44.43
                      Cedenio 44.54
                      J Borlee 44.67
                      Matthews 44.69

                      Heat 2
                      Al-Masrahi 43.93
                      McDonald 43.93

                      Makwala 44.19
                      Rooney 44.45
                      Bonevacia 44.72

                      Heat 3
                      Merritt 44.51
                      Francis 44.83

                      Heat 4
                      James 44.56
                      Santos 44.62
                      Gordon 44.97

                      Heat 6
                      van Niekirk 44.42
                      Quow 44.54
                      Nellum 44.65
                      Brown 44.68


                      44.70 in the semis did not make the Final

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                        And then there were the infamous HEATS in the 2015 WCs:
                        2 guys running 43 in the heats, Makwala doing pushups in the semi-final, 3 guys under 44 in the final for the first time ever and WVN taken away on a stretcher. That meet was insane.

                        If they hold 2032 Olympics in Beijing, I'd be willing to bet we see 44.00 miss the finals.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by ATK View Post
                          2 guys running 43 in the heats, Makwala doing pushups in the semi-final, 3 guys under 44 in the final for the first time ever and WVN taken away on a stretcher. That meet was insane.

                          If they hold 2032 Olympics in Beijing, I'd be willing to bet we see 44.00 miss the finals.
                          Beijing is unlikely to get the 2032 Summer Games. The IOC has already named Brisbane, Australia as the preferred host for
                          2032.
                          But that isnt likely to reduce the chance of having 44.00 miss the 2032 final of the 400. Brisbane is almost certain to
                          have the most advanced running surface available 10 years from now.
                          https://www.theguardian.com/sport/20...scott-morrison

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                          • #28
                            The real question should be, how many will be under 43 by 2032? I predict at least 2.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by highjumpfan View Post
                              The real question should be, how many will be under 43 by 2032? I predict at least 2.
                              If the shoes keep getting better, it'll be a lot more than that!

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                                44.70 in the semis did not make the Final
                                44.51 is the non-Q record, and that could certainly be in jeopardy with good conditions. (Though the 3+2 format makes non-q records tougher to achieve. Too lazy to look up what the format was when Davis set the record in '99.)

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