Overwhelming Favorite For Olympic Gold

[ralmcg]

This topic is about track-and-field athletes who people would consider a lock for Olympic gold medal. Of course, in sports, there is really no such thing as a true lock. Having said that my choice for Olympic gold lock is Yulimar Rojas of the women's triple jump. She is very close to breaking the world record set in 1995. I don't see any other woman who can jump as far as she does on a good day.

What are your locks for Olympic gold?

[SoCal45]

Sha'Carri Richardson...w100m......just kidding😀😀

[Powell]

I don't see any other woman who can jump as far as she does on a good day.

To me, a lock is someone who, even on a sub-par day, is still better than everyone else, but that still holds true for Rojas. At this point, I'm not sure I'd put anyone else in that category. Crouser, as great as he is, has top-quality opposition, so he can't really afford an off day. Vetter has had a fantastic streak this season, but the JT is just too unpredictable in general. Mayer could be a lock, if only he wasn't so injury-prone.

[AFelixFan]

I feel like Miller-Uibo is pretty close to being a lock for gold in that w200m.

[Powell]

I feel like Miller-Uibo is pretty close to being a lock for gold in that w200m.

Not enough data points yet this season. Too early to have any idea as to what DAS or ETH are capable of, and S'CR, while being a question mark, might also do something crazy.

[beebee]

Believe the US 4x400(both) are locks.

[Tuariki]

I agree that Yulimar Rojas looks to be the closest thing to a Gold lock as there is no other jumper even close to her. She is 3.35% ahead of the next jumper, Povea.
Crouser an obvious favourite but there are several who could cause an upset, most notably of course Kovacs and Walsh.
Sha'Carri not even close to being a lock or even the outright favourite, especially after being trounced last night by Asher-Smith.
I would have Miller-Uibo equal favourite with Asher-Smith
I think Mondo would be the next closest thing to a lock after Rojas - but on the day, as we saw last night

[18.99s]

Believe the US 4x400(both) are locks.

Not both ... three of them. There's also the mixed.

[Powell]

Sha'Carri not even close to being a lock or even the outright favourite, especially after being trounced last night by Asher-Smith.

To me, she wouldn't be a lock even if she had trounced DAS. To be in that category, you need to have an established track record at the global championship level.

[gh]

To me, she wouldn't be a lock even if she had trounced DAS. To be in that category, you need to have an established track record at the global championship level.

bingo!

[Atticus]

To me, she wouldn't be a lock even if she had trounced DAS. To be in that category, you need to have an established track record at the global championship level.

Yeah, Andrejczyk's non-medal performance in Rio and her zero World Championships Finals have me doubting her chances . . . not.
Florida is closing in on legalizing sports betting and a wanna get a Jackson on her before anyone finds out how good she might become!

[Powell]

Yeah, Andrejczyk's non-medal performance in Rio and her zero World Championships Finals have me doubting her chances . . . not.

Andrejczyk overperformed in Rio vis-a-vis pre-Olympic expectations, but yeah, I totally don't consider her a lock, and wouldn't even if she had a couple more 70m+ throws.

[Atticus]

Andrejczyk overperformed in Rio vis-a-vis pre-Olympic expectations, but yeah, I totally don't consider her a lock, and wouldn't even if she had a couple more 70m+ throws.

Oh ye of little faith!

[El Toro]

To me, a lock is someone who, even on a sub-par day, is still better than everyone else, but that still holds true for Rojas. At this point, I'm not sure I'd put anyone else in that category. Crouser, as great as he is, has top-quality opposition, so he can't really afford an off day. Vetter has had a fantastic streak this season, but the JT is just too unpredictable in general. Mayer could be a lock, if only he wasn't so injury-prone.

I think you are right on Rojas and we can't even say, "let's just wait until X starts her season"! There's just nobody waiting in the wings likely to beat her.

Crouser was at the top of his game in 2019 and was beaten, so not a lock, but I'd happily place money on him to win as he's clearly the most likely candidate.

Vetter threw 90+ just before Doha WC then just under 90 in Q but only finished third in the final to lesser throws. However, he's having a golden year and not just producing the occasional big throw. He doesn't seem to be managing any injuries, so I'd cross my fingers and bet on him to win knowing he's an 80% chance compared to Crouser's 98+.

Will Mayer even start and if he does, will he finish? I'll keep my money in my pocket on this event.

[aaronk]

If Jorinde van Klinken keeps improving the way she has, I'd pick her!
Definitely a lock for A medal now!

And surprised no one's mentioned Noah Lyles in the 200 yet!!
Or Holloway in the 110H!

I agree somewhat on Rojas as a lock!
Mondo is pretty close to a lock!