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Overwhelming Favorite For Olympic Gold

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  • #16
    I guess it's cool to debate but its personally to early to even consider anyone a lock.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Powell View Post

      Mayer could be a lock, if only he wasn't so injury-prone.
      While Mayer is clearly the best decathlete in the world right now, decathlon with it's various events is way to unpredictable for anyone to be a lock on anything. Mayer wasn't injured 2018 in Berlin and he still failed the long jump. Anything can happen in decathlon, even to the best one.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by aaronk View Post
        If Jorinde van Klinken keeps improving the way she has, I'd pick her!
        Definitely a lock for A medal now!
        Because she threw 70 meters in a hurricane? Let's see her take on Perkovic and the Cubans on the circuit first. If there's one event where the SB is no indication of medal chances, it's the DT.
        Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

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        • #19
          Originally posted by aaronk View Post
          Or Holloway in the 110H!
          He's the favorite, but not a lock. At the global championship level, and national championships in some countries like the USA and Jamaica, nobody is ever a lock in the 100h or 110h. Chances of the favorite having their race derailed by clipping a hurdle or being clipped by another hurdler or hurdle are too high.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by 18.99s View Post

            He's the favorite, but not a lock. At the global championship level, and national championships in some countries like the USA and Jamaica, nobody is ever a lock in the 100h or 110h. Chances of the favorite having their race derailed by clipping a hurdle or being clipped by another hurdler or hurdle are too high.
            I'm not sure I'd even consider him a favourite just yet. I want to see how he does against the top Jamaicans first. His top times are in line with theirs but not superior.

            Rojas is perhaps the strongest favourite for me right now of all. However, she only managed 14.74 for 2nd in the DL final in 2019, which was won by Ricketts in a 14.93 PB. Rojas had cleared 15m several times already that year and a week after that loss jumped her 15.41 PB, so it's not like she wasn't in form. She just had a subpar day im Zurich while Ricketts had a great one.

            Hard to say how people will look in July, obviously, but I can still envision a scenario where Rojas has a bad day and fails to clear 15m, while someone like Ricketts manages to take the win in a PB. Unlikely but plausible enough to stop Rojas being a lock for me.

            Nobody else qualifies either. Mondo just lost and the pole vault is too unpredictable anyway. Same with the decathlon. Vetter comes close but his subpar performance in Doha 2019 holds significance here. Crouser comes even closer but the results from Doha 2019 also hold significance - the event is too competitive when everyone gets going.

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            • #21
              I need to see Holloway's last 5 hurdles against someone pressing him. That his Achilles Heel. He said that's what he's working on, so my fingers are crossed that he's figured it out (it's all about shufflin'!). His first 5 hurdles are by far the best.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by aaronk View Post
                And surprised no one's mentioned Noah Lyles in the 200 yet!!
                Im getting close to a point where I feel Bednarek could have as good a chance at gold as Lyles does.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Weights&Shoes View Post
                  I guess it's cool to debate but its personally to early to even consider anyone a lock.
                  My sentiments exactly.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by ATK View Post
                    Im getting close to a point where I feel Bednarek could have as good a chance at gold as Lyles does.
                    I get the impression that Bed is pretty close to top form and NL is still 'getting in shape'. NL's 19.90-19.94 win over Bed was on sheer will.
                    I wondering about Laird in the USA and if Oduduru fulfills his promise.

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                    • #25
                      I’d be shocked to see either Duplantis or Crouser with anything other than gold should Tokyo happen. Of course stuff happens, but the spotlight is off everyone else in those two events.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                        I get the impression that Bed is pretty close to top form and NL is still 'getting in shape'. NL's 19.90-19.94 win over Bed was on sheer will.
                        I wondering about Laird in the USA and if Oduduru fulfills his promise.
                        Though I dont think Bednarek is capable of 19.4/19.3 yet, which I think Lyles is in a one off, he could very well hit 19.7x which is gold medal territory for now. Laird needs to make the team first. Oduduru, DeGrasse and a few others (essentially) dont have to worry about trials so what they do now is not as much of a factor yet. Oduduru already has 19.88 under his belt this year though.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Dave View Post
                          I’d be shocked to see either Duplantis or Crouser with anything other than gold should Tokyo happen. Of course stuff happens, but the spotlight is off everyone else in those two events.
                          Well . . . Sam proved he's a gamer in Gateshead and Joe turned the trick in Doha.

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by ATK View Post
                            Though I dont think Bednarek is capable of 19.4/19.3 yet, which I think Lyles is in a one off, he could very well hit 19.7x which is gold medal territory for now. Laird needs to make the team first. Oduduru, DeGrasse and a few others (essentially) dont have to worry about trials so what they do now is not as much of a factor yet. Oduduru already has 19.88 under his belt this year though.
                            Lyles is nowhere close to that now.
                            Laird is consistently fast.
                            DeG isn't there.
                            Odu has the talent, consistency has been a problem.
                            Unless Qnz pops a fast one, a USA sweep could be in the cards.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                              Lyles is nowhere close to that now.
                              Not talking about now, talking about later in the summer. Lyles could run 19.4 in Monaco or after Tokyo in Lausanne yet have a close 19.8/19.7 battle for Gold with everyone at the Olympics, as was the case in Doha.

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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                                Well . . . Sam proved he's a gamer in Gateshead and Joe turned the trick in Doha.
                                I can easily imagine someone else getting a 22.80+ in the Tokyo and beating Crouser.
                                Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

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