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¶ '21 mNCAA Dec: Karel Tilga (Georgia) 8261

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  • #61
    Tilga gave the CR a good run, but unfortunately, his PV did him in... only jumping 4.51 / 14-9 1/2.

    TilgaCollegeRecordPace.jpg

    Comment


    • #62
      Originally posted by miketandf View Post
      I was curious, so I watched the replay, and they did give Vollmer his 'second' first attempt, in the middle of the first round, out of order. After that, he went back to his original place, which was first in the flight. The officials made it right by giving him that extra throw after his initial foul, which was due to incorrect placement of the safety net.
      Thanks for the clarification.

      Comment


      • #63
        Update after pole vault (Hylton and Spejcher NH):

        Projected
        Rank
        Athlete
        Projected
        Score
        Difference from
        Initial Projection
        1
        Tilga
        8368
        +110
        2
        Owens
        8121
        +83
        3
        Ballengee
        7818
        -19
        4
        Neugebauer
        7646
        -199
        5
        Booth
        7639
        +227
        6
        Martin
        7601
        +78
        7
        Daniels
        7599
        -23
        8
        Spyridonidis
        7564
        +43
        9
        Vollmer
        7551
        -83
        10
        Baldwin
        7543
        +152
        11
        Walder
        7471
        -9
        12
        Keys
        7467
        +12
        13
        Swaby
        7433
        -56
        14
        Frid
        7417
        -161

        Comment


        • #64
          Update after javelin throw:

          Projected
          Rank
          Athlete
          Projected
          Score
          Difference from
          Initial Projection
          1
          Tilga
          8319
          +61
          2
          Owens
          8081
          +43
          3
          Ballengee
          7864
          +27
          4
          Booth
          7628
          +216
          5
          Neugebauer
          7620
          -225
          6
          Spyridonidis
          7588
          +67
          7
          Daniels
          7572
          -50
          8
          Vollmer
          7567
          -67
          9
          Walder
          7530
          +50
          10
          Martin
          7512
          -11
          11
          Baldwin
          7504
          +113
          12
          Keys
          7455
          0
          13
          Swaby
          7396
          -93
          14
          Frid
          7337
          -241

          Comment


          • #65
            Agree with David on top 3 for sure... the remaining point-earning spots will depend who wants it more.

            Comment


            • #66
              Final Results:
              Tilga 8261
              Owens 8114
              Ballengee 7861
              Neugebauer 7697
              Spyridonidis 7665
              Booth 7644
              Daniels 7635
              Vollmer 7633
              Walder 7565
              Martin 7542
              Baldwin 7522
              Keys 7479
              Swaby 7428
              Frid 7330
              Rogers 7233
              Farmer 7206
              Vorkink 6388
              Torney 6230

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by Davidokun View Post
                My two cents:
                Projected
                Rank
                Athlete
                Projected
                Score
                1
                Tilga
                8258
                2
                Owens
                8038
                3
                Neugebauer
                7845
                4
                Ballengee
                7837
                5
                Vollmer
                7634
                6
                Daniels
                7622
                7
                West
                7596
                8
                Frid
                7578
                9
                Spejcher
                7554
                10
                Martin
                7523
                11
                Spyridonidis
                7521

                Originally posted by miketandf View Post
                Final Results:
                Tilga 8261
                Owens 8114
                Ballengee 7861
                Neugebauer 7697
                Spyridonidis 7665
                Booth 7644
                Daniels 7635
                Vollmer 7633
                Walder 7565
                Martin 7542
                Baldwin 7522
                Keys 7479
                Swaby 7428
                Frid 7330
                Rogers 7233
                Farmer 7206
                Vorkink 6388
                Torney 6230
                Not bad!!

                Comment


                • #68
                  Update after 1500:

                  Rank
                  Athlete
                  Score
                  Difference from
                  Initial Projection
                  1
                  Tilga
                  8261
                  +3
                  2
                  Owens
                  8114
                  +76
                  3
                  Ballengee
                  7861
                  +24
                  4
                  Neugebauer
                  7697
                  -148
                  5
                  Spyridonidis
                  7665
                  +144
                  6
                  Booth
                  7644
                  +232
                  7
                  Daniels
                  7635
                  +13
                  8
                  Vollmer
                  7633
                  -1
                  9
                  Walder
                  7565
                  +85
                  10
                  Martin
                  7542
                  +19
                  11
                  Baldwin
                  7522
                  +131
                  12
                  Keys
                  7479
                  +24
                  13
                  Swaby
                  7428
                  -61
                  14
                  Frid
                  7330
                  -248

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    For what it's worth, for the 16 athletes who finished the event—and avoided an initialism along the way—the average difference between the actual scores and my initial projected scores is -3 points, or 0.04%.

                    I should probably quit now...
                    Last edited by Davidokun; 06-11-2021, 01:58 AM. Reason: Added comment in pale red.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      There is certainly a place in forecasting for using averages... thanks for everyone's posts. It's good to look at it from different angles.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by Davidokun View Post
                        For what it's worth, for the 16 athletes who finished the event—and avoided an initialism along the way—the average difference between the actual scores and my initial projected scores is -3 points, or 0.04%.

                        I should probably quit now...
                        That's pretty amazing.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Originally posted by Davidokun View Post
                          For what it's worth, for the 16 athletes who finished the event—and avoided an initialism along the way—the average difference between the actual scores and my initial projected scores is -3 points, or 0.04%.

                          I should probably quit now...
                          How are you with the stock market?

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            As far as the overall level, this is the worst competition I saw since I started to follow collegiate athletics roughly 10 year ago.
                            The table below presents the number of athletes that score 7,700+ during the season (that is all competitions before the trials) and the number of 7700 decathletes in the final. Note, that the number of pre-final is only among athletes that finish the decathlon in the finals. That is, Garland & Wolter are not counted in the eight this season.
                            Year Pre-Final Final Ratio
                            2010 2 3 1.50
                            2011 8 11 1.37
                            2012 9 9 1.00
                            2013 9 14 1.55
                            2014 6 7 1.16
                            2015 3 4 1.33
                            2016 9 10 1.11
                            2017 9 9 1.00
                            2018 7 7 1.00
                            2019 4 5 1.20
                            2021 8 3 0.38
                            What is even sadder is that the Heptathlon after three events seems to be even worse.
                            Really hope that this is not a preview for the American trials, otherwise Mike's analysis about qualification through ranking in the decathlon will come to play.




                            Comment


                            • #74
                              In case you missed it:

                              Originally posted by Davidokun View Post
                              Update after long jump:

                              Projected
                              Rank
                              Athlete
                              Projected
                              Score
                              Difference from
                              Initial Projection
                              5
                              Vollmer
                              7694
                              +60
                              Originally posted by ZazaShoya View Post
                              I feel your projection underestimate the outcome. Vollmer is on a really good pace, maybe 8000+.
                              Originally posted by ZazaShoya View Post
                              ...he's "only" 55 points ahead of his PB so far, and yet on 8000 pace. < 7700 seems a bit low, at this point a projection based on a comparison with his PB Dec seems more accurate.
                              Originally posted by ZazaShoya View Post
                              At the moment he only set a 0.03 LJ PB (which has stood for 4 years), 100m and SP are not even SB ... he's only 23 so that's more like he's putting things together at the right time.
                              Considering his performances this year, all of his best Dec feats seem achievable, so I'd put him over 8000, 8019 if he replicates all of them exactly.

                              Generally speaking, I prefer using a PB-based projection for younger athletes, typically those we find in NCAA, since there are more likely to match their performances, with some highs and lows. Of course this is far from flawless.
                              Originally posted by Davidokun View Post
                              Update after 1500:

                              Rank
                              Athlete
                              Score
                              Difference from
                              Initial Projection
                              8
                              Vollmer
                              7633
                              -1

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Thanks for the input everyone! Is there a consensus on a preference of looking at a Decathletes best score in any competition including OPEN, vs. best result from a Decathlon only?

                                For instance, Damian Warner recently tied his best Deca PV score of 4.80, but if you compare his effort to his overall best of 4.90 (in a Hep actually), it changes the perspective of his accomplishment.

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