Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

What's going on with Shelby Houlihan? [can run in OT... back out]

Collapse

Unconfigured Ad Widget

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Originally posted by booond View Post
    I agree the progression argument is weak but not because you bring up what you consider similar athletes who made similar progress (some under possibly darker clouds than Houlihan) but because there are too many variables in which to draw a conclusion. It is quite hard to compare any athletes in any sport let alone a sport where we might need a constant set of blood tests to understand what helped them take a huge forward step.
    I think we're basically agreeing. I wasn't comparing the women, I was making the point that saying a broad statement like "she progressed so much no wonder she tested positive" is weak because it implies most athletes will improve drastically when cheating and those not cheating will have a more steady progression. But every athlete being different and all different kinds of variables doesn't always make that the case.

    It just so happened, by coincidence, that these women I mentioned in the same event have had similar progressions. Doesn't mean anything though.
    Last edited by ATK; 06-15-2021, 09:30 PM.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by ATK View Post

      I think we're basically agreeing. I wasn't comparing the women, I was making the point that saying a broad statement like "she progressed so much no wonder she tested positive" is weak because it implies most athletes will improve drastically when cheating and those not cheating will have a more steady progression. But every athlete being different and all different kinds of variables doesn't always make that the case.

      It just so happened, by coincidence, that these women I mentioned in the same event have had similar progressions. Doesn't mean anything though.
      Except they might be guilty too....to compare the progression of athletes with someone who tested positive is something I doubt those athletes would want.
      Last edited by Conor Dary; 06-15-2021, 09:41 PM.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by ATK View Post

        I think we're basically agreeing. I wasn't comparing the women, I was making the point that saying a broad statement like "she progressed so much no wonder she tested positive" is weak because it implies most athletes will improve when cheating and those not cheating will have a more steady progression. But every athlete being different and all different kinds of variables doesn't always make that the case.

        It just so happened, by coincidence, that these women I mentioned in the same event have had similar progressions. Doesn't mean anything though.
        Yes, and it is why I don't like using that on either side of the argument.

        Way too many variables.

        Jenny Simpson made a huge jump in the 1500 and steeple her senior year in college. It was likely a combination of hard work and natural progress but also competition. Both her new PRs came against pros, not the college kids who were easily dismissed. She has made some progress since but timewise really peaked as a college senior. It looks crazy on a graph but isn't that crazy when you see who forced those improvements.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post

          Except they might be guilty too....
          By your logic, pick any athlete and they might be guilty

          Comment


          • Originally posted by booond View Post
            I agree the progression argument is weak . . . . because there are too many variables in which to draw a conclusion.
            Thank you; that was my point as well.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by ralmcg View Post

              Never mind. It's Nike Olympic Project.
              No, it's Nike Oregon Project!
              Or was!
              It ended its reign of abuse toward teenage girls when Salazar was banned!

              Comment


              • Originally posted by ATK View Post
                By your logic, pick any athlete and they might be guilty
                Exactly....you haven't figured that out by now? Sad state of the sport but is the way it is...

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                  Thank you; that was my point as well.
                  The way you were attempting to prove it was weak as well.

                  The data point is stark sitting next to all others. He went from 17.4 to 18.3 in a leap.

                  I assume we wouldn't find similar improvement in similar athletes. Taylor, as an example, made his big jump when he was twenty-one. Big improvements at a young age are expected, not as a seasoned veteran, like Edwards. We'd have to do far more work to see when field athletes peak. Taylor did improve from there but he was more or less wobbling around 17.9-18.0.

                  If you wanted to point to an athlete with a strange progression that raises questions, Edwards would be an obvious one.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post

                    Exactly....you haven't figured that out by now? Sad state of the sport but is the way it is...
                    Glass half full vs Glass half empty.

                    I enjoy watching this sport without assuming the worst.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by aaronk View Post

                      So huge and quick improvements, or having monster kicks make an athlete suspicious??
                      Wow!
                      So I guess all those Africans who run a 10K in 26:50 or low 27's out of nowhere are all guilty!
                      Jorinde van Klinken MUST be guilty!!
                      I mean, Chula Vista may aid DT'ers, but 230??
                      Guilty, guilty, guilty!!

                      Oh yes, didn't Gabby Stafford suddenly run all those amazing PR's at every distance from 800 to 5000?
                      And Vashti!!
                      Why did she suddenly jump 2.02??

                      Hassan, Gidey, Cheptegei?
                      Absolutely guilty as sin!!

                      Athing Mu?
                      Jenny Simpson running 3:59 as a Collegiate athlete?

                      Line 'em up!
                      Lock 'em up!
                      Throw away the key!!
                      As usual you assume you knew what I was saying. Even though I did not clarify it you went ahead and jumped the gun. Let me explain. When I see someone relatively unknown suddenly burst past top runners in a fast race and pull away easily I wonder. G.H. had every right to cut me off, but my thoughts seem to have been possibly accurate. Distance runners on PED's seem to have energy at the end of a fast race that looks suspicious.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by ATK View Post
                        Glass half full vs Glass half empty.

                        I enjoy watching this sport without assuming the worst.
                        I don't assume the worse ....because I basically don't care... a drug free sport is something I don't think much of or is possible...but you want some limits...

                        The present system for all its faults is far better than 30+ years ago when it was essentially anything goes...there was no out of competition testing...there was barely a limit on what you could get away with. Which is dangerous....

                        I had lots of top runners as friends in the 80s and knew them well enough they weren't doing anything...but that was because they actually cared about their health...meanwhile we would shake our heads at some dubious short term methods some were using...

                        My attitude these days is knowing elite athletes from the past and up to now most are clean but it doesn't surprise me when someone tests positive. The stakes are relatively high and dealing with competitive athletes some don't understand boundaries...
                        Last edited by Conor Dary; 06-15-2021, 10:52 PM.

                        Comment


                        • As of a half hour ago, the USATF entries list still had Houlihan declared in the 1500 and 5000!
                          Maybe they just haven't gotten around to erasing her from the roster!

                          Comment


                          • Initial CAS press release. No real details.
                            https://www.tas-cas.org/en/general-i...violation.html

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                              Jonathan Edwards would like a word with you.

                              Age Mark
                              22 15.88
                              23 17.28
                              24 16.41
                              25 17.43
                              26 17.34
                              27 17.44
                              28 17.39
                              29 18.29

                              Whatever the reason, Edwards' progression certainly WAS highly unusual.
                              Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...

                              Comment


                              • A possible way to tell if Shelby( and her coaches) is innocent or guilty will be to see if she keeps fighting this so it doesn't happen to other athletes. Her Career is toast, but if we see a fight to protect other athletes from this that will really tell you something.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X