¶ '21 mOT 1500: Cole Hocker 3:35.28

[booond]

Yeah, I hope we can give that a rest now.
Hocker&Nuguse here.
JuVaughn and Athing did OK.
Plus Ross, Jewett, Sullivan, Battle, Cockrell, Davis, Moore, Aquilla.

There is probably a nugget of truth in the old wive's tale about NCAA competitors but too many examples, as you outlined, which show that it is more anecdotal than factual.

Too many collegians, like Ross, Jewett, and Cockrell ran multiple heats, doubled, and ran relays, in conference championships, NCAA prelims, NCAA champs, and the OT and succeeded in all. Time to bury this narrative.

[18.99s]

Too many collegians, like Ross, Jewett, and Cockrell ran multiple heats, doubled, and ran relays, in conference championships, NCAA prelims, NCAA champs, and the OT and succeeded in all. Time to bury this narrative.

Not just yet. There may still be something to it; it could be event-dependent or coach-dependent.

For example, Cockrell and Jewett of USC both ran big PBs in the trials finals, while Sturgis, Stewart and Ross of NC A&T were all off their bests (albeit the latter two not badly enough to be left off the team). We all remember what happened at the trials with Sha'Carri Richardson in 2019, and now we have Laird also from LSU with a sub-par (for him) result at the trials. On the other hand, Harrison of LSU won his events, but jumping is a different thing.

If all the collegians at the trials were listed by event, school, season's best, and their results at the trials, a correlation may emerge with some schools and/or events having a significantly greater tendency to show a post-NCAA performance decline than others.

[booond]

For example, Cockrell and Jewett of USC both ran big PBs in the trials finals, while Sturgis, Stewart and Ross of NC A&T were all off their bests (albeit the latter two not badly enough to be left off the team). We all remember what happened at the trials with Sha'Carri Richardson in 2019, and now we have Laird also from LSU with a sub-par (for him) result at the trials. On the other hand, Harrison of LSU won his events, but jumping is a different thing.

As I said, anecdotal. You're even trying to set up differences between events - jumping easier than sprinting.

But, please, go off and find the magic thread that ties all these results - the good and the bad - together. We'll wait here for the years of study.

[cigar95]

If we rewind things a few decades the discussion would have been about how many *non*-collegians were on the team. I remember back in the 70s there was a frequent mention of the "critical first post-collegiate year" that would be a major factor in who could continue to thrive after college.

[18.99s]

As I said, anecdotal.

Yes, it's anecdotal, hence my mention of a larger study to take it beyond anecdotal.

You're even trying to set up differences between events - jumping easier than sprinting.

Nothing to do with what is easier. It's about finding where there is a greater post-peak decline after the NCAA season, or a shorter sustained peak.

[steve]

I would guess that peaking for both the NCAA’s and the Trials is not impossible due to the fact that they were only a week-ish apart. Continuing to churn out times later in the season may be difficult and the probability of injury increases with an increased number of all out efforts. Clearly the non-collegian pros choose to start their seasons later and run fewer meets than the excellent collegians who can extend the season beyond the NCAAs. I’m sure the pros do that for a good reason.

[Atticus]

I would guess that peaking for both the NCAA’s and the Trials is not impossible due to the fact that they were only a week-ish apart. Continuing to churn out times later in the season may be difficult and the probability of injury increases with an increased number of all out efforts. Clearly the non-collegian pros choose to start their seasons later and run fewer meets than the excellent collegians who can extend the season beyond the NCAAs. I’m sure the pros do that for a good reason.

Sorry, not buying any of it. Pros start later because they want to stay in 'heavy training'. The collegians STAY in pretty heavy training from the Fall on. That is ALSO a viable model (till you're about 28).

[gm]

If mile times were considered for their equivalent 1500m value, Hocker would have a qualifying time rather easily. Hocker's 3:50.55 is worth 3:33.48 using the TFN formula, or 3:33 something using World Athletics' own tables (which score an indoor 3:50.55 as equivalent to 3:33.13).

Hocker ran 3:35.63 en route in that mile.

[cigar95]

Seems like the easiest solution for IAAF (yeah, I know) is to simply publish a specific qualifying standard for mile times. It might be the "equivalent" of the 1500 standard, or maybe they make it a little tougher if they want to encourage more races at the metric distance.

[SoCal45]

So when will the world know if Hocker has made the team?

[gh]

So when will the world know if Hocker has made the team?

qualifying window closes today; final rankings due out on Thursday

[Atticus]

qualifying window closes today; final rankings due out on Thursday

If we were waiting for something to happen today to keep him from the quota, I'm pretty certain it won't.

[18.99s]

Seems like the easiest solution for IAAF (yeah, I know) is to simply publish a specific qualifying standard for mile times.

They actually did that for 2019.... 3:53.10 for men and 4:25:20 for women. Why not this year?

https://www.worldathletics.org/compe...standards/2019

mile-1500-standards2019.png

[TN1965]

I would guess that peaking for both the NCAA’s and the Trials is not impossible due to the fact that they were only a week-ish apart. Continuing to churn out times later in the season may be difficult and the probability of injury increases with an increased number of all out efforts. Clearly the non-collegian pros choose to start their seasons later and run fewer meets than the excellent collegians who can extend the season beyond the NCAAs. I’m sure the pros do that for a good reason.

I remember reading this about Oregon's Robert Johnson some time ago. He let each athlete decide whether to peak for the NCAA or the Trial. So the Oregon athletes with realistic chances to qualify for the Olympics have their coach's permission not to peak for the NCAA. I know nothing about college coaching, so I have no idea how many other coaches do the same thing.

[Atticus]

If we were waiting for something to happen today to keep him from the quota, I'm pretty certain it won't.

Just saw this on Twitter

@FloTrack FINAL UPDATE: Spain's 1500 resulted in no new Olympic standards, and with a Canadian only 1500 later tonight. It is impossible now for 6 athletes to pass Hocker. Cole Hocker's Olympic status is now a 100% lock.