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Benjamin vs. Warholm, when? .... not Monaco

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  • #76
    Originally posted by Fortius19 View Post
    hahaha, RB is ducking KW. He was all set to travel before KW set the WR. lol
    Well…good thing there is kind of a big meet in three and a half weeks that they both signed up for. 😉

    Comment


    • #77
      Originally posted by Atticus View Post
      Late to the show, but Grasshopper covered it perfectly.
      I also noticed that while previously, KW had been overstriding to the first hurdle, he didn't do that here, so fixing the first and last hurdle is a huge advantage to running even faster.
      My other comment is that KW makes himself vulnerable by going out so fast. All RB has to do is be with 5m of KW at the 300 mark and he can run him down. I assume KW knows that and will try even harder to be too far ahead to get caught, which further weakens him at the end. But if he 'paces' himself better in the first 300, then RB will be with him at 300m, and we're back with the original problem: RB has the better finish.
      It's a great puzzle to solve, and I have no idea who will win in Tokyo - they are both ultra-awesome runners. Whoever wins is on his way to GOATship.
      400IH-GOAT.JPG

      From the above table, RB is a long, long way from even beginning to talk about GOAT. He hasn't won anything yet of note, or set a WR. And if he wins in Tokyo with a WR, he will still be behind KW, and the proverbial country mile from Moses.

      If KW, wins in Tokyo and sets a WR, he is definitely on his way to becoming GOAT, although I still believe, based on the table above, Moses will still be the GOAT, although KW will be breathing down his neck.

      Going undefeated (122 times) for nearly 10 years, is crazy incredible. And if it hadn't been for Jimmy Cater, Moses would have had 3 Olympic golds. And if the WC's had started in 1977, he probably would have had 5 WC golds.

      KW is incredible, and my favourite to win in Tokyo, but he has some way to go to be GOAT.

      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by Atticus View Post
        I think it will be celebrated in America .......
        No it won't. Probably most Americans don't even know where Norway is, let alone have any idea who Warholm is.

        Originally posted by Atticus View Post
        I, for one, am THRILLED by both equally.
        And on that, I am in complete agreement with you.

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        • #79
          Code:
           RT    H1   H2    H3    H4    H5    H6    H7    H8    H9    H10 Final
          0.235 5.90 9.63 13.50 17.38 21.23 25.23 29.20 33.33 37.63 42.00 46.83
          0.163 5.72 9.24 12.82 16.50 20.32 24.24 28.34 32.52 36.92 41.60 46.70
          
          S-H1 H1-2 H2-3 H3-4 H4-5 H5-6 H6-7 H7-8 H8-9 H9-10 H10-F Final
          5.90 3.73 3.87 3.88 3.85 4.00 3.97 4.13 4.30 4.37 4.83 46.83
          5.72 3.52 3.58 3.68 3.82 3.92 4.10 4.18 4.40 4.68 5.10 46.70
          I did the 10 hurdle splits for Rai and compared them to Vinc_Guyot's splits for KW. It really is a tale of two strategies! Where can Rai find .14 seconds? Reaction time and between H5 and H6 look like prime candidates. His run-in is ridiculous, he must have some gas left in the tank to be able to do that.
          And KW, how would you optimize his race? It seems he can 13 step and hit between 4.2 and 4.4 second splits between hurdles even as deep as to the 9th hurdle. When he flips to 15, you see 4.5 and 4.6 splits. Can KW not spend a tenth early on to get back two tenths between H9 and 10 13-stepping it? It definitely is captivating, I'll tell you that much!

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by proofs in the pudd'in View Post

            Warhorse has an incredible opportunity here. With OGs and WCs in the next 3 years he could come out with 2 OG Golds and 4 WC Golds and the WR by the time he is 28. And if he can do that with this comp. then that GOAT status is his in my view. Is there a WC in 2023?
            2 OG golds (should have been 3) and an OG bronze. 2 WC golds. 4 WRs. 107 finals victories in a row over 10 years. Edwin Moses isn't moving over anytime soon.

            Granted, KW is amazing, as is RB. But when it comes to 400H GOAT, he has a long way to go. If, as you say, in 2025, he has 2 OG golds, another 3 WRs, and an unbeaten streak still going, then we can consider putting him in Moses territory.
            Last edited by bobguild76; 07-03-2021, 03:35 PM.

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            • #81
              Originally posted by Rack View Post
              Code:
               RT H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 H10 Final
              0.235 5.90 9.63 13.50 17.38 21.23 25.23 29.20 33.33 37.63 42.00 46.83
              0.163 5.72 9.24 12.82 16.50 20.32 24.24 28.34 32.52 36.92 41.60 46.70
              
              S-H1 H1-2 H2-3 H3-4 H4-5 H5-6 H6-7 H7-8 H8-9 H9-10 H10-F Final
              5.90 3.73 3.87 3.88 3.85 4.00 3.97 4.13 4.30 4.37 4.83 46.83
              5.72 3.52 3.58 3.68 3.82 3.92 4.10 4.18 4.40 4.68 5.10 46.70
              I did the 10 hurdle splits for Rai and compared them to Vinc_Guyot's splits for KW. It really is a tale of two strategies! Where can Rai find .14 seconds? Reaction time and between H5 and H6 look like prime candidates. His run-in is ridiculous, he must have some gas left in the tank to be able to do that.
              And KW, how would you optimize his race? It seems he can 13 step and hit between 4.2 and 4.4 second splits between hurdles even as deep as to the 9th hurdle. When he flips to 15, you see 4.5 and 4.6 splits. Can KW not spend a tenth early on to get back two tenths between H9 and 10 13-stepping it? It definitely is captivating, I'll tell you that much!

              Excellent analysis! You also have to add in the intangibles. Will the presence of Warholm in the race force Benjamin to make technical mistakes? Will Warholm go out too fast because Benjamin is in the race? Who will relax better in the last 50m of the race? I can't wait to see the big race. And I hope they don't race each other until the Olympic Final!

              Comment


              • #82
                Originally posted by Atticus View Post

                It's a great puzzle to solve, and I have no idea who will win in Tokyo - they are both ultra-awesome runners. Whoever wins is on his way to GOATship.
                No.

                Times/Distances always improve. It is possible with today's training methods, facility improvements, and shoe upgrades that Moses would have broken 46.

                A long stretch of victories would help along with OG golds but Moses is far in front of everyone to think that merely a WR has put someone on the path to GOATship.

                Comment


                • #83
                  Originally posted by bobguild76 View Post

                  Lemme see ... 2 OG golds (should have been 3) and an OG bronze. 2 WC golds. 4 WRs. 107 finals victories in a row over 10 years. Edwin Moses isn't moving over anytime soon.

                  Granted, KW is amazing, as is RB. But when it comes to 400H GOAT, he has a long way to go. If, in 2025, he has 2 OG golds, another 3 WRs, and an unbeaten streak still going, then we can put him in Moses territory.
                  Of course he has a long way to go, I'm mot saying he is or is near being GOAT yet. And we should do away with would haves and could haves. The unbeaten streak is certainly a factor but I'm not sure it is top 3 in my estimation of the standards for GOAT particularly depending on the competition during many of those 10 years. It is very unique but one unique factor does not = GOAT nor does it trump other factors in this case IMHO! In fact I don't expect KW to have such a win streak given how close some of his comp. has been over the last few years - losing here and there is just expected with such close comp. But he has so far avoided it over 2 years and is generating such talk. It's all fun to speculate right now because frankly he has a long way to go and it would be nearly a miracle if he were to accomplish becoming GOAT - what Moses did is beyond exceptional and rare it was nearly impossible and as such can hardly be expected to be passed. If KW does that he's an alien.
                  Last edited by proofs in the pudd'in; 07-03-2021, 04:35 PM.

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                  • #84
                    Well said, proof. One of the things I look forward to is a KW-RB rivalry that drives both of them to excel. And I wonder if Samba will re-enter the fray.

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Originally posted by Tuariki View Post

                      400IH-GOAT.JPG

                      From the above table, RB is a long, long way from even beginning to talk about GOAT. He hasn't won anything yet of note, or set a WR. And if he wins in Tokyo with a WR, he will still be behind KW, and the proverbial country mile from Moses.

                      If KW, wins in Tokyo and sets a WR, he is definitely on his way to becoming GOAT, although I still believe, based on the table above, Moses will still be the GOAT, although KW will be breathing down his neck.

                      Going undefeated (122 times) for nearly 10 years, is crazy incredible. And if it hadn't been for Jimmy Cater, Moses would have had 3 Olympic golds. And if the WC's had started in 1977, he probably would have had 5 WC golds.

                      KW is incredible, and my favourite to win in Tokyo, but he has some way to go to be GOAT.
                      In the chart you have KW as having a win streak of 2y 11m and 363d. Is this correct because I see that his win streak started May 30th 2019 which would be a little over 2y 1m. Am I missing something?
                      Last edited by proofs in the pudd'in; 07-03-2021, 04:22 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by bobguild76 View Post
                        Well said, proof. One of the things I look forward to is a KW-RB rivalry that drives both of them to excel. And I wonder if Samba will re-enter the fray.
                        Yes, right now you have 3 other guys, possibly 4 (if Samba can get back in shape) getting to low 47s - that's just crazy and on any given day, if 1 or more are off just a little could lose or win with a time between 47.00 and 47.50. That's some tight comp. The final in the OG is going to be great but it's not a forgone conclusion for either KW or RB and if one of those is off and one of the other 3/4 athletes are on one of these two could get Bronze. Tight margins of error here at this level.

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Originally posted by proofs in the pudd'in View Post

                          Yes, right now you have 3 other guys, possibly 4 (if Samba can get back in shape) getting to low 47s - that's just crazy and on any given day, if 1 or more are off just a little could lose or win with a time between 47.00 and 47.50. That's some tight comp. The final in the OG is going to be great but it's not a forgone conclusion for either KW or RB and if one of those is off and one of the other 3/4 athletes are on one of these two could get Bronze. Tight margins of error here at this level.
                          It should be one of the highlights go the Games!

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by proofs in the pudd'in View Post

                            Yes, right now you have 3 other guys, possibly 4 (if Samba can get back in shape) getting to low 47s - that's just crazy and on any given day, if 1 or more are off just a little could lose or win with a time between 47.00 and 47.50. That's some tight comp. The final in the OG is going to be great but it's not a forgone conclusion for either KW or RB and if one of those is off and one of the other 3/4 athletes are on one of these two could get Bronze. Tight margins of error here at this level.
                            Rome 1987 with Moses, Harris, and Schmid between 47.46 and 47.48. Hopefully it gets that close.

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by Fortius19 View Post
                              hahaha, RB is ducking KW. He was all set to travel before KW set the WR. lol
                              Ducking? I doubt it. More likely realizing that he can maximize his Olympic performance with the structure and consistency of training at home rather than traveling and racing in Europe. In my opinion it’s a wise decision with only about a month to go.

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Originally posted by steve View Post

                                Ducking? I doubt it. More likely realizing that he can maximize his Olympic performance with the structure and consistency of training at home rather than traveling and racing in Europe. In my opinion it’s a wise decision with only about a month to go.
                                Yes, it may be a wise decision for Benjamin. But he certainly could have made that decision any time after the Olympic Trails.
                                Instead, the decision was made after Warholm's WR. So that does make it seem that he is ducking Warholm.

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