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Benjamin vs. Warholm, when? .... not Monaco

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  • Originally posted by gh View Post

    there are also hardcore statisticians who consider the Moses streak to have ended at the '84 TAC Championships, where he won his semi then pulled out of the final.
    They probably also ding him for other races they felt he should have entered but didn't. That said I don't think one needs to surpass his win streak or longevity just to surpass his GOAT status. There are other ways to take the event to new heights and places where others couldn't. For me that would involve involve world records and major championships against tough competition that could edge someone ahead of Moses. Karsten Warholm could be on his way, and definitely can't count out Rai Benjamin, but to me surpassing Moses will be harder than breaking the record that Warholm just broke.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by steve View Post
      surpassing Moses will be harder than breaking the record that Warholm just broke.
      Tafny for Understatement of the Year!

      Comment


      • Originally posted by 26mi235 View Post
        ... Also, the US blocks were creating problems ....
        no, skittish athletes were causing problems

        Comment


        • Code:
           RT H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 H10 Final
          0.163 5.708 9.216 12.820 16.475 *20.241 24.166 *28.271 *32.521 *36.926 41.600 46.70
          S-H1 H1-2 H2-3 H3-4 H4-5 H5-6 H6-7 H7-8 H8-9 H9-10 H10-F Final
          5.708 3.508 3.604 3.655 *3.766 *3.925 *4.105 *4.250 *4.405 *4.675 5.100 46.70
          Code:
           RT H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 H10 Final
          0.163 5.72 9.24 12.82 16.50 *20.24 *24.16 *28.26 32.52 36.92 41.60 46.70
          S-H1 H1-2 H2-3 H3-4 H4-5 H5-6 H6-7 H7-8 H8-9 H9-10 H10-F Final
          5.72 3.52 3.58 3.68 *3.74 3.92 4.10 *4.26 4.40 4.68 5.10 46.70
          Times marked with a * have been updated.
          Made some boo-boos on the slomo at H8 and H9, don't know how that happened, fixed. Looked at some spots again, adjusted 1 frame.
          Have a hypothesis, from the slomo data, that the far-side camera in the TV feed is lagged two 25Hz frames or 0.08seconds, this would affect times at H5 H6 and H7, adjusted.
          KW went out even faster than the previous data said, if you want to entertain that thought.
          And both lines of times agree, mostly. Hooray!
          Last edited by Rack; 07-04-2021, 12:44 AM.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Rack View Post
            Code:
             RT H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 H10 Final
            0.163 5.708 9.216 12.820 16.475 *20.241 24.166 *28.271 *32.521 *36.926 41.600 46.70
            S-H1 H1-2 H2-3 H3-4 H4-5 H5-6 H6-7 H7-8 H8-9 H9-10 H10-F Final
            5.708 3.508 3.604 3.655 *3.766 *3.925 *4.105 *4.250 *4.405 *4.675 5.100 46.70
            Code:
             RT H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 H10 Final
            0.163 5.72 9.24 12.82 16.50 *20.24 *24.16 *28.26 32.52 36.92 41.60 46.70
            S-H1 H1-2 H2-3 H3-4 H4-5 H5-6 H6-7 H7-8 H8-9 H9-10 H10-F Final
            5.72 3.52 3.58 3.68 *3.74 3.92 4.10 *4.26 4.40 4.68 5.10 46.70
            Times marked with a * have been updated.
            Made some boo-boos on the slomo at H8 and H9, don't know how that happened, fixed. Looked at some spots again, adjusted 1 frame.
            Have a hypothesis, from the slomo data, that the far-side camera in the TV feed is lagged two 25Hz frames or 0.08seconds, this would affect times at H5 H6 and H7, adjusted.
            KW went out even faster than the previous data said, if you want to entertain that thought.
            And both lines of times agree, mostly. Hooray!
            Very nice! I got 157 tot.steps (20 to first hurdle, then all 13 to 9, then15 from 9-10, then 18 to finish and then counted the landing leg after each hurdle tot.10). For funsies!

            Question: Is H5 set right at 200m? And how many tot. did Mo take?

            I posted this on your other post but it seems to be stuck in "unapproved" mode.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by proofs in the pudd'in View Post

              Question: Is H5 set right at 200m?
              185 meters.
              They're fast, but not *that* fast.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by cigar95 View Post
                185 meters.
                They're fast, but not *that* fast.
                Thanks! So he is hitting 200m at approx. 23s.?

                Comment


                • Originally posted by proofs in the pudd'in View Post

                  Thanks! So he is hitting 200m at approx. 23s.?
                  Benjamin, yes. Warholm would be low-22s.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by cigar95 View Post

                    Benjamin, yes. Warholm would be low-22s.
                    👍

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by proofs in the pudd'in View Post

                      Question: Is H5 set right at 200m?
                      That's a deep question! The hurdle for H5 is at 185m (35m*5 +10m if you use the virtual 0th hurdle at 45m-35m for counting), but where the foot lands, I guess I'll refer to:
                      http://www.hurdlecentral.com/Docs/Hu...HTheory%20.pdf
                      and Table A. I would call KW "elite" but for rounding I would call H5 at approximately 186.5m. KW's 200m split is from the race pdf, I'm not sure how they got them but I think I see little red Omega cameras dotted around the track in the footage. It seems like the scoreboard time is about 0.2 second behind (visible just before 200m in the slowmo), 21.8 seems solid to me! From the slowmo, the split looks like 21.731 depending on where you put the finish frame.
                      As for RB's ~22.8 200m split, I did my best with the footage. As long as the backside camera for RB isn't lagged a couple of frames like KW's race's TV footage, should be close.
                      Last edited by Rack; 07-04-2021, 11:44 AM.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                        Tafny for Understatement of the Year!
                        Hey! That was one hard record to break! But, yeah…I own the understatement.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Rack View Post
                          That's a deep question! The hurdle for H5 is at 185m (35m*5 +10m if you use the virtual 0th hurdle at 45m-35m for counting), but where the foot lands, I guess I'll refer to:
                          http://www.hurdlecentral.com/Docs/Hu...HTheory%20.pdf
                          and Table A. I would call KW "elite" but for rounding I would call H5 at approximately 186.5m. KW's 200m split is from the race pdf, I'm not sure how they got them but I think I see little red Omega cameras dotted around the track in the footage. It seems like the scoreboard time is about 0.2 second behind (visible just before 200m in the slowmo), 21.8 seems solid to me! From the slowmo, the split looks like 21.731 depending on where you put the finish frame.
                          As for RB's ~22.8 200m split, I did my best with the footage. As long as the backside camera for RB isn't lagged a couple of frames like KW's race's TV footage, should be close.
                          Thanks for this paper: I thoroughly enjoyed it! Some interesting thoughts that pertain to KW and the super slow-mo video.

                          "Although the trail leg may clear the hurdle in a lower plane than in the highs, it must continue driving forward and upward to allow the hurdler to return to good sprinting action."

                          "Complete recovery of the trail leg, continuing the knee drive forward and upward after it passes the hurdle, ensures an active landing of the lead leg and continuation of efficient sprinting."


                          KW seemed to do this particularly well if I'm understanding this.

                          Also, the paper notes that hurdle clearance stride length for runners doing 13 strides between each hurdle is 3.50m/s.And this is what they consider 'elite' since it is an indicator of efficiency of hurdle clearance. KW did this very well in the video.

                          KW had 20 strides to the first hurdle which the paper said was also elite (20-22) which will result in the 13 stride pattern - odd (13, 15, 17, etc.) being most desirable using the left leg as lead which is most desirable on the curve (which is why he chooses and love outside lanes). He goes out pretty fast over that first 45m and seem to hit this pattern perfectly.

                          The article noted that it is quite rare for a hurdler to keep this pattern through the whole race and will eventually need to change to a greater number of strides.

                          "A transition takes place when a hurdler changes down to a shorter stride length (because of fatigue) which results in one or two more steps between hurdles."

                          They noted that the median value for when this takes place was the 7th hurdle and athletes with less conditioning will have to do this earlier. Given that KW does this between 9-10 (changes to 15 strides) it's quite amazing given how fast he goes out. I think he has figured his sweet spot of speed/endurance with this pattern. He is basically allowing the natural and inevitable result of slowing down and the end of the race to dictate his pattern but is able to do it farther than most (between 9 and 10). I think if his endurance can increase a little he will break his own WR this season. He just needs to not slow as much (which is not bad now) at the very end of the race where he does not have to worry about the pattern anymore (except the last hurdle). I think it is going to be hard for RB to beat him if he is on this strategy at his best. RB seems to have to shift gears in the middle to make up for the 1 sec difference and then hope to out do him in the stretch, which given the endurance of KW, might be too much particularly if KW is getting a little stronger as the season goes forward.

                          KW uses what the article calls the Double Cut-down when going from 13 to 15 (and thus still using the left led leg when doing so) and notes that it has some disadvantages. But none of these disadvantages hinder KW given his approach. It is only the last hurdle and is also after a blazing-fast first half of the race (or in KW's case first 3/4ths) and thus the fatigue forces him to a double cut-down from 13 to15 anyway. It's like he gains all the advantage of the fast first part with minimal disadvantage in latter part even though he drop two strides. The paper noted that very few elites use the Double cut-down. The most valuable technique, according to the paper, is learning to alternate legs.

                          The paper also noted that there should not be a differential of 5% between the first and second half of the race. In KW's case he breaks this rule also - 21.8 / 24.9 - a 46.70 should not be more than 2.335s. But KW is 3.1s. Seems to work for him.

                          The more I look at this data the more I think it is KW's to lose. Just some thoughts!

                          Can some of you stat and Tech nerds do a comparison of this type info and chart it for Moses, Young, KW,and RB.
                          Last edited by proofs in the pudd'in; 07-04-2021, 06:16 PM.

                          Comment


                          • I think that RB will not use the exact same strategy for the Games as in the Trials, the situations are different and the strategy should adjust (the most important thing for RB was not a fast time or even winning the race but to make sure that he qualified. He took it easier in the first 200 so that he was less fatigued in the second half, where he could run as a fast as he felt he safely could. KW had different objectives and it was a one-off race, albeit with less help from the weather, I think. I think RB's strategy is better for the rounds because he does not go too hard early and then can gauge what he needs to finish to get the better lanes. RB had Lane 5 (6, on the track), and with his speed being further out is a slight advantage, same as KW.

                            Comment


                            • Based on Bol's run today, and Warholm's standard practice, if you don't go out fast you won't be in the hunt the last 50 meters.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Rack View Post
                                Code:
                                 RT H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 H10 Final
                                0.163 5.708 9.216 12.820 16.475 *20.241 24.166 *28.271 *32.521 *36.926 41.600 46.70
                                S-H1 H1-2 H2-3 H3-4 H4-5 H5-6 H6-7 H7-8 H8-9 H9-10 H10-F Final
                                5.708 3.508 3.604 3.655 *3.766 *3.925 *4.105 *4.250 *4.405 *4.675 5.100 46.70
                                Code:
                                 RT H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8 H9 H10 Final
                                0.163 5.72 9.24 12.82 16.50 *20.24 *24.16 *28.26 32.52 36.92 41.60 46.70
                                S-H1 H1-2 H2-3 H3-4 H4-5 H5-6 H6-7 H7-8 H8-9 H9-10 H10-F Final
                                5.72 3.52 3.58 3.68 *3.74 3.92 4.10 *4.26 4.40 4.68 5.10 46.70
                                Times marked with a * have been updated.
                                Made some boo-boos on the slomo at H8 and H9, don't know how that happened, fixed. Looked at some spots again, adjusted 1 frame.
                                Have a hypothesis, from the slomo data, that the far-side camera in the TV feed is lagged two 25Hz frames or 0.08seconds, this would affect times at H5 H6 and H7, adjusted.
                                KW went out even faster than the previous data said, if you want to entertain that thought.
                                And both lines of times agree, mostly. Hooray!
                                Very good job, thanks !
                                Could you provide us with some hurdle clearance times ? I'd really like to see who's more efficient over the barrier, though, as said earlier, the way you land and how it affects your ability to keep going is maybe more important ...
                                Regarding this matter, I find Dos Santos very impressive, always so smooth ... could he sneak under 47 this year already ?

                                Comment

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