2021 Gateshead DL2

[ATK]

I am wondering whether all the big names will even start in the 200m. SMU is an obvious 'will she wont she' but I would not be surprised if SAFP or Thompson withdrew before the 200m. I just have a feeling.

Though I'm less inclined to think women will pull out of the 200m during an Olympic year compared to a World Championship year, there are parts of me that also wouldn't be surprised if she pulled out of the 200m. But the thought process might not make as much sense. As you explained the 200m field is very very wide open and imagine SAFP wins the 100m, in what will almost certainly have to be a fast time (at least sub 10.80) then she already beat out everyone in the 200m field except Thomas and SMU and must like her chances to at least contend for a medal in the 200m. On the flip side, if she finishes 3rd in the 100m, she may want to make up for that in the 200m somehow, even if her chances aren't as great.

She's also noted (I think in the Monaco press conference) that she wont be running in Paris 2024, so what's there to loose at your last Olympics when you are literally in the best form of your life in both events?

Aside from her and SMU, I would actually be surprised if the others (including ETH) didn't attempt the 200m since for most of them (DAS, Prandini, Thomas, Jackson) thats probably their "better" event.

[Wiederganger]

I don't think your assessment is far off the reality of the situation. I think ETH is currently in 22.2x shape. The adrenaline, importance of the occasion etc. will take her to around a 22.0x in the Olympic final. Anything can happen though. A good performance in the 100m final may give her the extra edge over her competitors (mentally) in the 200m.

I am wondering whether all the big names will even start in the 200m. SMU is an obvious 'will she wont she' but I would not be surprised if SAFP or Thompson withdrew before the 200m. I just have a feeling.

I agree she is probably in 22.2 shape. Whether that's due to now being in heavy training, or just not as fit over the longer distance (more likely) I don't know. She does look to have prioritised the 100m event this season. But her races over 200m this year are comparable to what she did in 2016, time wise, and we know what happened in Rio!

SMU, Jackson, Thompson, SAFP & Ta Lou having raced during the last 2 weeks has given us an indication of their form and ability to win or lose. On the other hand, DAS, Thomas & Prandini have not, and are much harder to assess. (I'm not currently counting Anavia Battle in the top echelon - nothing personal, I just think come Tokyo she'll be flat).

Ta Lou running into really good form makes the top 8 finalists - in order on the world lists as they appear now - likely to be:

Thomas
SAFP
Jackson
Prandini
Thompson-Herah
SMU
DAS
Ta Lou

With Battle missing out IMO. Big names/repeat finalists Okagbare, Schippers & Kambundji would have to lift their game. Historically, 22.4 - 22.5 gets you into the final, a time those 3 can run in Tokyo, so this might be the fastest & most competitive SF's we've seen in a long time and 22.4 - 22.5 might not make the cut.

[aaronk]

LR is lit up on him. All pure speculation.

L-R gets "lit up" on almost everything--it's their M.O!
All pure bullshit!
(Unless they agree with me!)
LOL

[Zelex]

I still can't make my mind up whether Thompson-Herah is going to be a threat over 200m or not. Some suggested she was cruising, but she was still sweating and out of breath in her post race interview like someone that had run hard. If she had won the JAM trials in the same time she ran, I would probably say she is a contender for gold, but as she was beaten into 3rd, looked to struggle with form at the end, suggesting a lack of fitness over the longer distance, I don't know. I think I'm putting her down as a medal contender but gold favourite is at this point, between Jackson, DAS and SMU.

I reserve the right to change my mind on a whim with no back up evidence whatsoever. 😀

I don't think your assessment is far off the reality of the situation. I think ETH is currently in 22.2x shape. The adrenaline, importance of the occasion etc. will take her to around a 22.0x in the Olympic final. Anything can happen though. A good performance in the 100m final may give her the extra edge over her competitors (mentally) in the 200m.

[Wiederganger]

Johannes Vetter was scathing in his instagram post on the meet. He said the runway was too slippy and dangerous, and that the organisers were not concerned or made any attempt to dry it. He also said the wait for the 'final 3' was way too long, just to please the TV audience. He said he wont be back unless things drastically change.

[Wiederganger]

Mihmabo is continuing to struggle with getting on the board She lost 18cm on her last jump, which would have won. The Tokyo track should benefit her as a speed jumper, so we'll see.

[Wiederganger]

I still can't make my mind up whether Thompson-Herah is going to be a threat over 200m or not. Some suggested she was cruising, but she was still sweating and out of breath in her post race interview like someone that had run hard. If she had won the JAM trials in the same time she ran, I would probably say she is a contender for gold, but as she was beaten into 3rd, looked to struggle with form at the end, suggesting a lack of fitness over the longer distance, I don't know. I think I'm putting her down as a medal contender but gold favourite is at this point, between Jackson, DAS and SMU.

I reserve the right to change my mind on a whim with no back up evidence whatsoever. 😀

[cigar95]

Dave Stephens for the men?

Chico HS 1980, so that should qualify him. Didn't make the high school list in the jav, but I can look back to see if he made the state meet in some other event.

[gm]

And these PRs make her the CIF alumni record holder for 800, supplanting Alysia Montano. That's a list of records I really need to compile. (My guess is the javelins will be the toughest.)

Dave Stephens for the men?

[Atticus]

No comments so far on the 3K? The best performances in Gateshead. What gives with Katir?

LR is lit up on him. All pure speculation.

[booond]

And these PRs make her the CIF alumni record holder for 800, supplanting Alysia Montano. That's a list of records I really need to compile. (My guess is the javelins will be the toughest.)

Nice.

[cigar95]

She's run three 1:57 800s and a 4:27 mile - two wins and two thirds. If she ran like this at the OT Ajee Wilson would be running the circuit. She's a different athlete. Odd to have three PBs at her age.

And these PRs make her the CIF alumni record holder for 800, supplanting Alysia Montano. That's a list of records I really need to compile. (My guess is the javelins will be the toughest.)

[catson52]

No comments so far on the 3K? The best performances in Gateshead. What gives with Katir? Three NRs in two months, taking one from Cacho, all very good times. In the 3K he closed in 55+. not too shabby for 7:27+.

[booond]

Probably running 4:07 - 1500, same as today 4:27 - mile.

She's run three 1:57 800s and a 4:27 mile - two wins and two thirds. If she ran like this at the OT Ajee Wilson would be running the circuit. She's a different athlete. Odd to have three PBs at her age.

[Bruce Kritzler]

Where was this Kate Grace a couple weeks ago?

Probably running 4:07 - 1500, same as today 4:27 - mile.