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  • olorin
    replied
    Originally posted by trailrun View Post
    Olorin, do your calculations include pre 1984 performances? Any incite on how modern decathletes compare with the guys from the 80s and 90s would be appreciated. With my untrained eye it looks like the guys filling the top spots on the all-time lists, your Ashton Eaton’s, Damian Warner’s and Kevin Mayer’s are all speed based athletes and therefore it’s becoming harder to be truly world class as an all-rounder or throwing specialist. Pappas, Harder and Clay were exceptional, but it was Eatons extra speed that took him to the world record
    One of the question I plan to ask is whether decathletes changed through the years.
    The problem is that the number of observation before 1984 is relatively small (roughly 100).
    I'm trying to increase the number by collecting the data for lower marks (the ultimate goal is 8000). If anyone has the data and not mind to share it, then I promise a quick answer.
    I assume that you choose 1984 because of the table change. I think that another potential reason is the demise of the East-European decathletes that use to be the non-sprinter type. May take sometime, but I am planning to answer you.
    Last edited by olorin; 07-22-2021, 12:40 AM.

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  • cigar95
    replied
    Originally posted by olorin View Post
    GH: my posts are keep being flag as potential spam and get delay, which is very annoying. I think that it is because I use word and then copy it to the board (which I assume is the way spammer work) but surely you can tell the system that those with more than 500 posts should be off the suspect list.
    I found the same in my "CIF alumni records" post, and I assumed it was because I pasted in part of an Excel spreadsheet which goes into the message as a table. Things got approved by the moderator after a few hours, but I noticed that it couldn't be edited while it was awaiting moderation.

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  • Davidokun
    replied
    For what it's worth, I have also encountered this "feature" of vBulletin. Two possible workarounds:
    • Edit the post directly, using BBCode.
    • Make a new post with the corrections, and then delete the original post, if desired.

    I recommend the former for minor corrections.

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  • olorin
    replied
    Originally posted by cigar95 View Post
    Stones used to say that high jumpers tended to be good javelin throwers. (Maybe he still does, though I haven't seen him cover a deca in a long time.) Any evidence of that?
    One of the thing that you learn while working with data is not to trust your impression, but wait for the data to tell its story.

    I believe that the root of the problem is something that I learned many years ago called confirmation bias which can be summarized by Simon and Garfunkel immortal line "A man hear what he wants to hear and disregards the rest".

    Before I started this exercise, I was sure that the correlation between the 400 & 1500 is much stronger than it actually is. In my mind I had Eaton's first WR, Curtis Beach, the bad performances of Scantlings (pre-2016) in both events, as consistent with this observation and tend to look at opposite examples as flukes. Turnout that the flukes happen in reality much more than I thought. I don't think that this mistake suggests that Stones is not knowledgeable, I have no idea (I am not American so I hardly heard his commentary). I think that he made a mistake that if often done by people (including coaches, athletes, experts and statisticians) because we are human.
    Last edited by olorin; 07-22-2021, 09:14 AM.

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  • gh
    replied
    Originally posted by olorin View Post

    Thanks David will be corrected (when the system will be convinced that I am not a spammer).
    it's almost a guarantee that a long/tabled post with edits will trigger the system

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  • olorin
    replied
    Originally posted by Davidokun View Post


    Typo here. The latter event should be the 110 hurdles, not the 400. Alternatively, if the latter event remains the 400, then the difference should be 72, not 96.
    Thanks David will be corrected (when the system will be convinced that I am not a spammer).

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  • olorin
    replied
    GH: my posts are keep being flag as potential spam and get delay, which is very annoying. I think that it is because I use word and then copy it to the board (which I assume is the way spammer work) but surely you can tell the system that those with more than 500 posts should be off the suspect list.

    Leave a comment:


  • Davidokun
    replied
    Originally posted by cigar95 View Post
    Stones used to say that high jumpers tended to be good javelin throwers. (Maybe he still does, though I haven't seen him cover a deca in a long time.) Any evidence of that?
    olorin's data suggests the opposite:

    Those that are good in the high jump score 40 points less in the javelin throw compared with those that are bad in the high jump.

    Those that are good in the javelin throw score 23 points less in the high jump compared with those that are bad in the javelin throw.

    Leave a comment:


  • Davidokun
    replied
    Originally posted by olorin View Post
    Those that are good in the 100 score 96 points more in the 400 compared with those that are bad in the 100.

    Typo here. The latter event should be the 110 hurdles, not the 400. Alternatively, if the latter event remains the 400, then the difference should be 72, not 96.

    Leave a comment:


  • trailrun
    replied
    Hardee* excuse me

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  • trailrun
    replied
    Olorin, do your calculations include pre 1984 performances? Any incite on how modern decathletes compare with the guys from the 80s and 90s would be appreciated. With my untrained eye it looks like the guys filling the top spots on the all-time lists, your Ashton Eaton’s, Damian Warner’s and Kevin Mayer’s are all speed based athletes and therefore it’s becoming harder to be truly world class as an all-rounder or throwing specialist. Pappas, Harder and Clay were exceptional, but it was Eatons extra speed that took him to the world record

    Leave a comment:


  • Atticus
    replied
    Originally posted by cigar95 View Post
    Stones used to say that high jumpers tended to be good javelin throwers. (Maybe he still does, though I haven't seen him cover a deca in a long time.) Any evidence of that?
    Well. they do tend to have long levers and good limb speed. It's the 'arm/shoulder' strength they may be lacking.

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  • cigar95
    replied
    Stones used to say that high jumpers tended to be good javelin throwers. (Maybe he still does, though I haven't seen him cover a deca in a long time.) Any evidence of that?

    Leave a comment:


  • Atticus
    replied
    Originally posted by olorin View Post
    There is only a low correlation between the HJ and the LJ
    That certainly is surprising, esp. given that all 8200 Decathletes can run fast. JuVaughn Harrison is looking better all the time!

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  • olorin
    replied
    Warning: if you enjoy this post then go look in the mirror and know that you are looking at a stat-geek.

    I had a hard time deciding how to present the results.
    Eventually, I decided on the full version of the table. The rows represent the event (good vs. bad) and the columns the difference between the highest and lowest decile in each of the decathlon events. Blue and red are positive and negative relation and the number along the diagonal are the same numbers as the previous post (question 1).

    Few examples:
    Those that are good in the 100 score 96 points more in the 110h compared with those that are bad in the 100.

    Those that are good in the LJ score 40 points less in the DT compared with those that are bad in the LJ.
    Those that are good in the DT score the same in the JT compared with those that are bad in the DT.
    100 LJ SP HJ 400 110h DT PV JT 1500
    100 194 74 -2 -45 72 96 4 -5 -48 -93
    LJ 71 216 -21 14 36 28 -40 8 -23 -29
    SP 3 -22 190 -19 -21 -1 110 -51 29 -82
    HJ -26 21 -11 223 -23 -26 -14 -12 -40 -10
    400 95 48 -41 -42 166 55 -73 8 -30 23
    110h 110 43 5 -52 66 173 -3 6 -31 -44
    DT -2 -39 89 -6 -37 -8 228 -67 0 -68
    PV 8 10 -60 -21 2 2 -64 287 -23 -22
    JT -39 -27 20 -23 -22 -22 2 -24 284 -8
    1500 -71 -29 -59 -16 23 -40 -55 -27 3 264
    Disclaimer: I am oversimplifying here (yes, I know!) but the results are similar when I did the exact calculations.
    Last edited by olorin; 07-21-2021, 11:16 PM.

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