Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Decathlon statistics

Collapse

Unconfigured Ad Widget

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #31
    GH: my posts are keep being flag as potential spam and get delay, which is very annoying. I think that it is because I use word and then copy it to the board (which I assume is the way spammer work) but surely you can tell the system that those with more than 500 posts should be off the suspect list.

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by Davidokun View Post


      Typo here. The latter event should be the 110 hurdles, not the 400. Alternatively, if the latter event remains the 400, then the difference should be 72, not 96.
      Thanks David will be corrected (when the system will be convinced that I am not a spammer).

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by olorin View Post

        Thanks David will be corrected (when the system will be convinced that I am not a spammer).
        it's almost a guarantee that a long/tabled post with edits will trigger the system

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by cigar95 View Post
          Stones used to say that high jumpers tended to be good javelin throwers. (Maybe he still does, though I haven't seen him cover a deca in a long time.) Any evidence of that?
          One of the thing that you learn while working with data is not to trust your impression, but wait for the data to tell its story.

          I believe that the root of the problem is something that I learned many years ago called confirmation bias which can be summarized by Simon and Garfunkel immortal line "A man hear what he wants to hear and disregards the rest".

          Before I started this exercise, I was sure that the correlation between the 400 & 1500 is much stronger than it actually is. In my mind I had Eaton's first WR, Curtis Beach, the bad performances of Scantlings (pre-2016) in both events, as consistent with this observation and tend to look at opposite examples as flukes. Turnout that the flukes happen in reality much more than I thought. I don't think that this mistake suggests that Stones is not knowledgeable, I have no idea (I am not American so I hardly heard his commentary). I think that he made a mistake that if often done by people (including coaches, athletes, experts and statisticians) because we are human.
          Last edited by olorin; 07-22-2021, 09:14 AM.

          Comment


          • #35
            For what it's worth, I have also encountered this "feature" of vBulletin. Two possible workarounds:
            • Edit the post directly, using BBCode.
            • Make a new post with the corrections, and then delete the original post, if desired.

            I recommend the former for minor corrections.

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by olorin View Post
              GH: my posts are keep being flag as potential spam and get delay, which is very annoying. I think that it is because I use word and then copy it to the board (which I assume is the way spammer work) but surely you can tell the system that those with more than 500 posts should be off the suspect list.
              I found the same in my "CIF alumni records" post, and I assumed it was because I pasted in part of an Excel spreadsheet which goes into the message as a table. Things got approved by the moderator after a few hours, but I noticed that it couldn't be edited while it was awaiting moderation.

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by trailrun View Post
                Olorin, do your calculations include pre 1984 performances? Any incite on how modern decathletes compare with the guys from the 80s and 90s would be appreciated. With my untrained eye it looks like the guys filling the top spots on the all-time lists, your Ashton Eaton’s, Damian Warner’s and Kevin Mayer’s are all speed based athletes and therefore it’s becoming harder to be truly world class as an all-rounder or throwing specialist. Pappas, Harder and Clay were exceptional, but it was Eatons extra speed that took him to the world record
                One of the question I plan to ask is whether decathletes changed through the years.
                The problem is that the number of observation before 1984 is relatively small (roughly 100).
                I'm trying to increase the number by collecting the data for lower marks (the ultimate goal is 8000). If anyone has the data and not mind to share it, then I promise a quick answer.
                I assume that you choose 1984 because of the table change. I think that another potential reason is the demise of the East-European decathletes that use to be the non-sprinter type. May take sometime, but I am planning to answer you.
                Last edited by olorin; 07-22-2021, 12:40 AM.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by olorin View Post
                  . . . . . . Turnout that the flukes happen in reality much more than I thought. I don't think that this mistake suggests that Stones is not knowledgeable, I have no idea (I an not American so I hardly heard his commentary). I think that he made a mistake that if often done by people (including, coaches, athletes, experts and statisticians) because we are human.
                  My guess is that Dwight remembered some examples of good HJ / JT combinations, and perhaps a couple bad pairs, and extrapolated based on a small data set in his memory.

                  Particularly interesting is how little the vault is correlated with much of anything, other than that Ryan Crouser is not going to jump 5.80. (Yeh, I know he's not an 8200 point guy, I'm just hyperbolizing . . . ). I would guess that this speaks to the importance of technique in this event, given that everyone is already very physically talented. (Plus, we see that the JT has only mild correlations to anything else, going back to the earlier discussion in these events.)

                  I was also going to remark on how strongly the matrix correlates with its transpose, but then that almost has to be the case. If good 400 runners are lousy discus throwers, then good discus throwers are going to be lousy 400 runners.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by cigar95 View Post
                    Stones used to say that high jumpers tended to be good javelin throwers. (Maybe he still does, though I haven't seen him cover a deca in a long time.) Any evidence of that?
                    If you watch the pattern of run and take off, the two events align well. Though the great HJers don’t generally throw well, the good Jav throwers HJ relatively well.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by trailrun View Post
                      Olorin, do your calculations include pre 1984 performances? Any incite on how modern decathletes compare with the guys from the 80s and 90s would be appreciated. With my untrained eye it looks like the guys filling the top spots on the all-time lists, your Ashton Eaton’s, Damian Warner’s and Kevin Mayer’s are all speed based athletes and therefore it’s becoming harder to be truly world class as an all-rounder or throwing specialist. Pappas, Harder and Clay were exceptional, but it was Eatons extra speed that took him to the world record
                      or was it Eaton was tough on the long runs. Clay’s PBs on speed events aren’t way off. He just never ran a great 15 and kind of never had to. If he’d run 414 (800) instead of 440 (650 Ish) he would have scared 9k at the OT in 2008. In Dec, it ALWAYS comes down to an event or two. Whether we are lousy guys hoping to get a medal at junior Olympics, or the guys winning gold in the real thing.

                      It is always just about an event or a bar or a day.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by olorin View Post
                        surely you can tell the system that those with more than 500 posts should be off the suspect list.
                        Don't feel so bad; I have a bazillion posts and I get 'suspected' all the time. It's usually due to a link in my post.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by deca View Post

                          If you watch the pattern of run and take off, the two events align well. Though the great HJers don’t generally throw well, the good Jav throwers HJ relatively well.
                          I have two words for you: Rory Kotinek

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by deca View Post

                            If you watch the pattern of run and take off, the two events align well. Though the great HJers don’t generally throw well, the good Jav throwers HJ relatively well.
                            I'm kinda with Dwight. In my experience/observation, back in the olden days, when many/most athletes did as many events as they had some aptitude for, HJers routinely doubled as JTers.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by lonewolf View Post
                              I'm kinda with Dwight. In my experience/observation, back in the olden days, when many/most athletes did as many events as they had some aptitude for, HJers routinely doubled as JTers.
                              A lot of Deca training advice recommends training the two events together on the same day due to similar run-up patterns.


                              This is great stuff Olorin! Thank you. I remember back in early internet days, some random website did a semi-scientific research of the Deca events. They determined the Discus was the #1 key to a good score and gave a descending order of importance. I took notes somewhere and misplaced them. I haven't been able to find the website since. I do believe the PV and JT are key technique wise.
                              Last edited by Fortius19; 07-22-2021, 06:52 AM. Reason: spelling correction

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by lonewolf View Post
                                I'm kinda with Dwight. In my experience/observation, back in the olden days, when many/most athletes did as many events as they had some aptitude for, HJers routinely doubled as JTers.
                                As I said I have a limited data on the "old days".
                                Even, when I limited the data to before 1990 the negative relation between HJ and JT continued.
                                The negative relation reduces a bit when I limit the sample to 1985, but with so little observations it is really hard to tell whether this is a genuine reduction or luck.
                                Last edited by olorin; 07-22-2021, 11:21 AM.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X