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  • KevinR
    replied
    Pretty cool stuff, here. Feeds the monkey for those of us who delight in statistics.

    Leave a comment:


  • noone
    replied
    Very interesting. Intuitively, I would have pretty much guessed the order correctly. Before the 400, I tell myself “who cares, they’ll all run between 48 and 50 seconds”.
    So the last four events are the most important ones! This explains the Niklaus Kaul effect!

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  • bambam1729
    replied
    Originally posted by olorin View Post
    Technical notes and full results:

    Until today there were 1,060 performances above 8,200 points. This is the data I will use to all my analyses.
    To answer this question, I divided these performances to 10 groups in each event and compared the score of the best and worst group. For example, in the 100m the top 10% ran 10.55 or faster and scored on average 994 points. The slowest group ran above 11.19 and score on average 800 points. This suggests that a good 100m runner will outscore a bad one by 194 points.
    The table below presents these differences across the 10 events

    Events Difference
    PV 287
    JT 284
    1500* 264
    DT 228
    HJ 223
    LJ 216
    100 194
    110 173
    400 166
    * relatively large part of the difference is because some decathletes have really bad results. Probably because they lost interest and decided to jog.
    What about the shot put?

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  • lonewolf
    replied
    Thank you, olorin, fascinating stuff.
    Now, if I could just back up seventy years, learn to PV, grow half a foot, gain 50 pounds (without losing sprint, jump, and 1500 ability) I could have been a "contendah."
    Assuming, I was not DQed for illicit gym sweeping and consumption of uncastrated hog meat.

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  • olorin
    replied
    Technical notes and full results:

    Until today there were 1,060 performances above 8,200 points. This is the data I will use to all my analyses.
    To answer this question, I divided these performances to 10 even groups (decile) in each event and compared the score of the best and worst group. For example, in the 100m the top 10% ran 10.55 or faster and scored on average 994 points. The slowest group ran above 11.19 and score on average 800 points. This suggests that a good 100m runner will outscore a bad one by 194 points.
    The table below presents these differences across the 10 events
    Events Difference
    PV 287
    JT 284
    1500* 264
    DT 228
    HJ 223
    LJ 216
    100 194
    SP 190
    110 173
    400 166
    * relatively large part of the difference is because some decathletes have really bad results. Probably because they lost interest and decided to jog.
    Last edited by olorin; 07-20-2021, 12:01 AM.

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  • olorin
    replied
    Do all decathlon events have the same importance?

    The question of whether points are awarded equally among the 10 events is typically asked in relation that to the total number of points in each event. Even a casual look in the results show that the three throws and the 1,500 give on average less points then the other six events in the decathlon. This observation led to the erroneous conclusion that decathletes that are better in the throwing events (or the 1500) are in disadvantage compared with other decathletes. The following (hypothetical) table illustrates why it is not the case.
    Bad Average Good
    100 800 900 1000
    JT 600 750 900
    As you can see from the table even though in all levels the 100 gives more points than the JT, it is more important to be good in the JT than in the 100. For example, a decathlete that is good in the 100 & average on the JT will score 1,750 points comparted with 1,800 points for a decathlete that is good in the JT and average in the 100.
    In short, it is not the absolute number of points that is important but rather the relative points in each event (aka the slope).

    So, consistent with this idea I calculated the difference between good and bad decathletes across the ten events.

    The bottom line – all events are not equal. The two technical events PV & JT offer the highest rewards for those that are good on them while the 400 & 100h the smallest.
    Last edited by olorin; 07-20-2021, 12:00 AM.

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  • olorin
    started a topic Decathlon statistics

    Decathlon statistics

    Since I have spare time until the Olympics and no competition to follow, I decided to use my decathlon database to answer several questions that I never had the time (or motivation) to answer before.
    While I know that this is not most people cup of tea, I hope that at least some of you (PJM?) will find it interesting. I will try to keep the technical part as simple as possible, but the sad truth is that if you do not like numbers and statistics then you shouldn’t read past the bottom line (which conveniently will be usually at the beginning).


    So, without further ado let’s start with the first question
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