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Miller Uibo to ONLY run 200m in Tokyo

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  • #31
    I think she should try for the double, it's the Olympics and who knows what the landscape will be like at the next games. The path to 400m gold is clearly easier and I think she can win gold there whether she doubles or not. However, there is a loaded field in the w200 and if she does indeed double, she will see the negative effects of it in the final. I think the choice for her comes down to try and get a w200 gold and that's it (and that is far from guaranteed) or aim for a 200 medal + 400 gold. Even if the schedule was more conducive, this is a difficult double to attain considering the level of competition in the shorter sprint. 25 years ago, MJP pulled off this double (and coincidentally was also the defending 400m champ from the prior cycle) but that w200 in 96 was not strong at all.

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    • #32
      Is Miller-Uibo ready to go 21.4x? It may take such a performance to win, given the closer that Gabby Thomas put on in Eugene (10.4).

      With Shaunae committing only to the 200, and Salwa Eid Naser benched until 2023, and the Namibians forbidden (the only word that fits at the moment 🤨) to run the 400, this opens the door wide open for Allyson Felix to make another last-straightaway mad dash for a medal and easily become the oldest ever to break 50.00...

      ...Nonetheless, I still expect Wadeline Jonathas to be the big surprise here. That is, unless Allyson empties the tank and goes entirely for broke here. How close does she come to 49.26 (her open PR from 2015, as she ran 50.02 last month)? Does she dare try and go faster (it is literally deep space out there between her flat 49.26 and her relay 47.72)?

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      • #33
        I hope SMU goes for the double.

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        • #34
          If Shaunae doesn't run the 400, some would believe this a golden opportunity missed for Mu. But then again, were her chances greater for sub-48.50 than for sub-1:55.0 (I'm thinking she could break 1:54.0 now)?

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          • #35
            Originally posted by AFelixFan View Post
            While I can fully understand why, given her consistency and history of success in the event, I have to say that I'm not totally convinced Miller-Uibo is in 49-low shape over the 400. Yes, she ran 49.08 this year, but that was way back in April. Since then, her best time was at the Bahamian nationals where she ran a very easy 50.48. One could argue that she was taking it super easy as she did double up at nationals, running her 200 heat and 400 final the same day, but the 200 heat was run in a pedestrian jog, 24.06.

            I went back to see the last time Miller-Uibo ran a non-sub-50 400 final and, if we dispose of 2020 as a throwaway pandemic year, we have to go back to the last Olympic year, 2016, where she cruised to a 52.17 win at the Bahamian nationals.

            It could be that she's just running a bit cautiously, given her niggles this year in training and what with it being an Olympic year, but her last two 200 performances haven't inspired much confidence that she's medal-ready for that event either.

            I could be way off-base and she could arrive in Tokyo in superlative form, ready and capable to run whatever's necessary to win the 400 and also put in a spirited 200 run to fight for a medal there. I just know it's been a weird year for her. She went missing from competition for a month and returned with races below her usual exemplary standard. I say if she does run the 400 it's still a toss-up for the gold, but I've been wrong before and wouldn't be surprised to be wrong again.
            As you noted, she went missing because of some niggles after her April races. Her race at nationals was pretty controlled, though it's obviously impossible to tell how hard she was pushing: https://youtu.be/rCGBbNpKw80
            But it was basically a solo time trial of 50.48

            One important thing to note is, though she ran Bahamian nationals, she really only had one thing to train for which was Tokyo (as opposed to the US and Jamaican ladies with serious trials). Her 200m times in Hungary and Monaco weren't anything to scream about, but neither were any of the other ladies relative to the flying times they ran before (specifically SAFP and Jackson).

            For the 400m, Felix, Jonathas McLeod and McGregor have not run faster than SMU's 50.48 outside of their trials. Paulino, Hayes and McPherson have run sub 50 during the season, but all their PBs are still more than half a second slower than SMUs SB. It's possible she's not in 49.0 form, but unless injured, you'll have to do a lot to convince me she's not in at least 49.5 shape at the one meet she has been training for all year.

            I would be more likely to think she is "only" now back at 49.0 form as opposed to the 48 sec form she was likely headed after her April races.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by Tuariki View Post
              I hope SMU goes for the double.
              Same. As long as she's doing the 400 thats all that matters to me. So if she's doing the double, great, go for it. The schedule is setup that she gets the longer distance out of the way 1st. If she was only doing the 200 I'd be annoyed, practically giving the gold away.

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Weights&Shoes View Post
                The schedule is setup that she gets the longer distance out of the way 1st.
                200m is before the 400m

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by ATK View Post
                  As you noted, she went missing because of some niggles after her April races. Her race at nationals was pretty controlled, though it's obviously impossible to tell how hard she was pushing: https://youtu.be/rCGBbNpKw80
                  But it was basically a solo time trial of 50.48

                  One important thing to note is, though she ran Bahamian nationals, she really only had one thing to train for which was Tokyo (as opposed to the US and Jamaican ladies with serious trials). Her 200m times in Hungary and Monaco weren't anything to scream about, but neither were any of the other ladies relative to the flying times they ran before (specifically SAFP and Jackson).

                  For the 400m, Felix, Jonathas McLeod and McGregor have not run faster than SMU's 50.48 outside of their trials. Paulino, Hayes and McPherson have run sub 50 during the season, but all their PBs are still more than half a second slower than SMUs SB. It's possible she's not in 49.0 form, but unless injured, you'll have to do a lot to convince me she's not in at least 49.5 shape at the one meet she has been training for all year.

                  I would be more likely to think she is "only" now back at 49.0 form as opposed to the 48 sec form she was likely headed after her April races.
                  Just looking at her final pre-championship 200/400 races in championship years past (where it's always been the case that she didn't have serious national trials):

                  2015: 22.14/49.92 (I'm discounting the 28.08 she ran in Monaco that year after Okagbare veered into her lane)
                  2016: 22.38/49.55
                  2017: 22.21/49.80
                  2019: 21.74/49.59
                  2021: 22.23/50.48

                  It just seems like a weaker scorecard this time 'round than I'm accustomed to seeing from her. Could totally just be her being at a different place in training than before and I do think she'll probably be in at least 49.5 shape if she's at least 80% fit, but 49.5 puts her in the way of traffic.

                  As for the 200, if the Americans and Jamaicans show up in the same form as they were in at their nationals, nothing Miller-Uibo has done this year suggests she has a response there.

                  I guess I'm just nervous about Miller-Uibo because the last time I remember her having niggles in training was in 2015, which was why she'd gone out so conservatively in that first 200 that year.

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                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Weights&Shoes View Post

                    Same. As long as she's doing the 400 thats all that matters to me. So if she's doing the double, great, go for it. The schedule is setup that she gets the longer distance out of the way 1st. If she was only doing the 200 I'd be annoyed, practically giving the gold away.
                    200m heats and semi Aug 2

                    400m heats and 200m final Aug 3.

                    Both days split morning and evening.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by CookyMonzta View Post
                      Is Miller-Uibo ready to go 21.4x? It may take such a performance to win, given the closer that Gabby Thomas put on in Eugene (10.4).

                      With Shaunae committing only to the 200, and Salwa Eid Naser benched until 2023, and the Namibians forbidden (the only word that fits at the moment 🤨) to run the 400, this opens the door wide open for Allyson Felix to make another last-straightaway mad dash for a medal and easily become the oldest ever to break 50.00...

                      ...Nonetheless, I still expect Wadeline Jonathas to be the big surprise here. That is, unless Allyson empties the tank and goes entirely for broke here. How close does she come to 49.26 (her open PR from 2015, as she ran 50.02 last month)? Does she dare try and go faster (it is literally deep space out there between her flat 49.26 and her relay 47.72)?
                      I dont see Gabby or anyone needing to run 21.4 to win, sorry. Don't even think GT will be running faster than she did at trials.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by AFelixFan View Post

                        Just looking at her final pre-championship 200/400 races in championship years past (where it's always been the case that she didn't have serious national trials):

                        2015: 22.14/49.92 (I'm discounting the 28.08 she ran in Monaco that year after Okagbare veered into her lane)
                        2016: 22.38/49.55
                        2017: 22.21/49.80
                        2019: 21.74/49.59
                        2021: 22.23/50.48

                        It just seems like a weaker scorecard this time 'round than I'm accustomed to seeing from her. Could totally just be her being at a different place in training than before and I do think she'll probably be in at least 49.5 shape if she's at least 80% fit, but 49.5 puts her in the way of traffic.

                        As for the 200, if the Americans and Jamaicans show up in the same form as they were in at their nationals, nothing Miller-Uibo has done this year suggests she has a response there.

                        I guess I'm just nervous about Miller-Uibo because the last time I remember her having niggles in training was in 2015, which was why she'd gone out so conservatively in that first 200 that year.
                        Note, I dont have a real not argument for the 200m. I wouldn't be surprised if SMU finished 1st or 8th (Thomas, SAFP, Jackson, Prandini, ETH, DAS, Ta Lou)

                        A few things need context though.
                        - 2021 is the shortest amount of time between her nationals and the start of the global championships she has ever had.
                        - She has not run a 400 after Nationals this year, so the 50.48 is not comparable. As you said, she pretty much didnt take nationals serious most years.
                        - Her 200m times pretty much line up with previous years except 2019. But 2019 was a long year and she ran that 21.74 at the very last possible meet of the year on August 29th in the DL final. Right before that she ran 22.24.

                        So for the 400m, I dont see it nearly as weaker because its not really comparable, while the 200m seems in line. Also, if she is in 49.5 shape, how would there be traffic? Unless Felix taps into her 2015 form, no one has a PB under 49.6. And If the thought is others will step it up for the Olympics, then why wouldn't SMU as well?

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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Track78 View Post

                          I dont see Gabby or anyone needing to run 21.4 to win, sorry. Don't even think GT will be running faster than she did at trials.
                          We shall see. No one saw Schippers' 21.63 coming in 2015, given her PR of 22.03 beforehand, and I thought she had peaked the year before.

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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by ATK View Post
                            Note, I dont have a real not argument for the 200m. I wouldn't be surprised if SMU finished 1st or 8th (Thomas, SAFP, Jackson, Prandini, ETH, DAS, Ta Lou)

                            A few things need context though.
                            - 2021 is the shortest amount of time between her nationals and the start of the global championships she has ever had.
                            - She has not run a 400 after Nationals this year, so the 50.48 is not comparable. As you said, she pretty much didnt take nationals serious most years.
                            - Her 200m times pretty much line up with previous years except 2019. But 2019 was a long year and she ran that 21.74 at the very last possible meet of the year on August 29th in the DL final. Right before that she ran 22.24.

                            So for the 400m, I dont see it nearly as weaker because its not really comparable, while the 200m seems in line. Also, if she is in 49.5 shape, how would there be traffic? Unless Felix taps into her 2015 form, no one has a PB under 49.6. And If the thought is others will step it up for the Olympics, then why wouldn't SMU as well?
                            I guess my thought process is whether or not she shifted her training to solely focus on the 200 and is now making a last-minute decision to do both due to: (a) the niggles, (b) the big 200m performances from her competitors, or (c) both. It's really conjecture at this point, though, as I have little idea what's going on behind the scenes. I just have this suspicion that she put more eggs in the 200 basket than she would've liked, but we'll just have to wait and see. This is a tough championship to predict.

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by AFelixFan View Post

                              I guess my thought process is whether or not she shifted her training to solely focus on the 200 and is now making a last-minute decision to do both due to: (a) the niggles, (b) the big 200m performances from her competitors, or (c) both. It's really conjecture at this point, though, as I have little idea what's going on behind the scenes. I just have this suspicion that she put more eggs in the 200 basket than she would've liked, but we'll just have to wait and see. This is a tough championship to predict.
                              Got you, I definitely understand that line of thinking.

                              Honestly, it's just so rare we have a world class 200/400 runner with serious medal potential, so it's a great opportunity for her. Even if she were to win 2 lesser medals, that would still be a historical Olympic achievement.

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                              • #45
                                Originally posted by NotDutra5 View Post

                                200m heats and semi Aug 2

                                400m heats and 200m final Aug 3.

                                Both days split morning and evening.
                                I give up lol.

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