Miller Uibo to ONLY run 200m in Tokyo

[AFelixFan]

While I can fully understand why, given her consistency and history of success in the event, I have to say that I'm not totally convinced Miller-Uibo is in 49-low shape over the 400. Yes, she ran 49.08 this year, but that was way back in April. Since then, her best time was at the Bahamian nationals where she ran a very easy 50.48. One could argue that she was taking it super easy as she did double up at nationals, running her 200 heat and 400 final the same day, but the 200 heat was run in a pedestrian jog, 24.06.

I went back to see the last time Miller-Uibo ran a non-sub-50 400 final and, if we dispose of 2020 as a throwaway pandemic year, we have to go back to the last Olympic year, 2016, where she cruised to a 52.17 win at the Bahamian nationals.

It could be that she's just running a bit cautiously, given her niggles this year in training and what with it being an Olympic year, but her last two 200 performances haven't inspired much confidence that she's medal-ready for that event either.

I could be way off-base and she could arrive in Tokyo in superlative form, ready and capable to run whatever's necessary to win the 400 and also put in a spirited 200 run to fight for a medal there. I just know it's been a weird year for her. She went missing from competition for a month and returned with races below her usual exemplary standard. I say if she does run the 400 it's still a toss-up for the gold, but I've been wrong before and wouldn't be surprised to be wrong again.

[1.609]

I'll be very surprised to see SMU higher than 4th, and it could be as low as 5th. If she does not double, could be a regrettable choice.

[Atticus]

Felix will be in 49-high form in the individual, so that does seem to translate to a 48.x relay split for her. She's in; Mu's in, McL's in, so Hayes seems to fill the bill.

[ATK]

Felix is not that far behind, especially if you look at her 47.x relay; not in that form now, of course

Yes .18 is not that far, but considering SMU's flat PB is closer to Felix's best relay split than her best flat time, there really isn't much discussion.

Plus Felix's best flat performances (49.26, 49.51, 49.59) are barely in line with what she can do on the relay (47.72, 48.0, 48.2) even if you use various flat-to-relay conversions. And as you note, that is her form of 5+ years ago while SMU's bests (48.37, 48.97, 49.05) are all within the past 3 years.

[26mi235]

True, but if my PB was 48.3 and SB was 49.0, times no one in the field has scratched at their entire career? I know what I would be doing.

Felix is not that far behind, especially if you look at her 47.x relay; not in that form now, of course

[ATK]

Says the guy who doesn't have to do it at . . . the O-effin-lympics!!

True, but if my PB was 48.3 and SB was 49.0, times no one in the field has scratched at their entire career? I know what I would be doing.

[Atticus]

There really isn't much down side to the double.

Says the guy who doesn't have to do it at . . . the O-effin-lympics!!

[scottmitchell74]

in Doha, 52.23,, but the problem with not having a preferred lane for the semis can lead to not getting one for the final either

WVN

[18.99s]

She's super talented, but I just don't think she can pull off the double.
The 400 is less competitive, but she's already got that gold.
The 200 would be a bigger prize, so I'll guess she sticks to her original plan.

The 400 is a bigger prize now because successfully defending an Olympic title is more highly respected and remembered than winning gold in a different but closely related event (unless the gold in the other event was part of double-gold in the same Games).

Repeating her 400 gold also sets up the possibility of an unprecedented three-peat in the 400m in 2024.

[ATK]

Given the fact that she already has an Olympic 400 gold medal, that's a chance I would be willing to take if I were her. Assuming, Thomas, Prandini, Fraser, Thompson and Smith all come out of the 200 semis unscathed, she can't afford to go into the 200 final at less than 100% and with 12 hours to recover a 52.00 shouldn't take anything out of her.

I agree. I think the gap between her and the field in the 400m cant be closed if she ends up with a "bad" lane (anything other than 1-2 seems perfectly fine). Also note, if she cruises the heat and ends up a bad lane in the semi, she can push a bit harder for a good lane in the final since there is a full days rest between the 400m semis and finals.

There really isn't much down side to the double. Regardless of what happens in the 200m, injury and strange happenings aside, does anyone really think she can loose 400m gold in a clean race?

[jazzcyclist]

I think you're underestimating how much energy 'only' a 52 takes, when every ounce counts.

Maybe so, but won't the other 200 finalists get up that morning and do a shakeout anyway? I understand that a 52s 400 heat is a lot more intense than a shakeout but it's not like she'll be missing out on her beauty sleep.

[Atticus]

How fast would she have to run the 400 to get out of the heats? Would 52.00 do it? Forget trying to get a preferred lane for the semifinals, just run barely fast enough to advance?

I think you're underestimating how much energy 'only' a 52 takes, when every ounce counts.

[jazzcyclist]

in Doha, 52.23,, but the problem with not having a preferred lane for the semis can lead to not getting one for the final either

Given the fact that she already has an Olympic 400 gold medal, that's a chance I would be willing to take if I were her. Assuming, Thomas, Prandini, Fraser, Thompson and Smith all come out of the 200 semis unscathed, she can't afford to go into the 200 final at less than 100% and with 12 hours to recover a 52.00 shouldn't take anything out of her.

[gh]

How fast would she have to run the 400 to get out of the heats? Would 52.00 do it? Forget trying to get a preferred lane for the semifinals, just run barely fast enough to advance?

in Doha, 52.23,, but the problem with not having a preferred lane for the semis can lead to not getting one for the final either

[Wiederganger]

How fast would she have to run the 400 to get out of the heats? Would 52.00 do it? Forget trying to get a preferred lane for the semifinals, just run barely fast enough to advance?

But as we've said before, it's not so much the exertion of a 52+, it's the whole having to get up so many hours before the race, warm up, use all that nervous energy, try and focus on the 400m, run the race, warm down, back to her room, try and sleep, then mentally switch to the 200m final.

The 400m hts are 9:45am. She will need to be at the track, what, an hour before? At least 1 hour of warm up, possibly more, breakfast etc., and get to the track, so she has to get up at the very latest 6:45am, probably before 6. Then she wont be back in her room relaxing until midday.

It is all doable, and she has the ability and talent, but it's all of the above before the tougher and more competitive event final. A 200m ht in the morning of the 400m final I think wouldn't be as bad.