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  • #31
    Originally posted by LopenUupunut View Post
    Coming into Doha no one really knew what shape Kipyegon was in, but she had a 3:59 SB, so hammering early to drop her made sense.

    Kipyegon is coming to Tokyo with a 3:51 SB; which need not mean Hassan won't try the same strategy (it worked last time, and should serve well to drop everybody else), but she'd better be really, really confident of her ability. Hassan isn't a bad kicker, so it's not the only approach she can try. That said, she did tend to have awkward tactics earlier in her career when she didn't front-run.
    1500 seems like a vanity race for Hassan that will end badly. Kipyegon beat her easily and there is no reason to think she won't again with Muir - if she runs smart - waiting to pick up a cheap silver.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by LopenUupunut View Post
      Coming into Doha no one really knew what shape Kipyegon was in, but she had a 3:59 SB, so hammering early to drop her made sense.

      Kipyegon is coming to Tokyo with a 3:51 SB; which need not mean Hassan won't try the same strategy (it worked last time, and should serve well to drop everybody else), but she'd better be really, really confident of her ability. Hassan isn't a bad kicker, so it's not the only approach she can try. That said, she did tend to have awkward tactics earlier in her career when she didn't front-run.
      No argument here. I just think it's her best shot at either winning or medaling. She is vulnerable in a pure kicker's race.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Bruce Kritzler View Post

        Won't be a low 14 race. too hot/humid.
        But it will feel like one.

        Hassan is at her best when she breaks the field. She can afford to wait until the last 1600 in the 10k like she did in Doha. I don't think it's advisable for her in the 5000.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by Steele View Post

          But it will feel like one.

          Hassan is at her best when she breaks the field. She can afford to wait until the last 1600 in the 10k like she did in Doha. I don't think it's advisable for her in the 5000.
          Gidey is the one took off with 4 laps to go. And my guess is that she need to take off even earlier this time to break Hassan.

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          • #35
            Also in the unpickables category: women's LJ. The jumpers with big marks lack consistency, the consistent jumpers lack big marks, and none of the traditional winners are at their best.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by Juicy News View Post

              Gidey is the one took off with 4 laps to go. And my guess is that she need to take off even earlier this time to break Hassan.
              Agree. And it was Hassan that took off in the 1500.

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              • #37
                My main disagreements:

                w200m - I can see the argument for the top 2, but I would predict Jackson, Thompson & SMU all finishing above SAFP. Jackson is certainly looking like a medal candidate, her win over SMU was not insignificant and points to her beating her in Tokyo. Thompson is always going to be a big ? and whilst stronger over 100m this year, and despite coming 3rd at the NC's, I have her down as beating SAFP in Tokyo.
                I would have Okagbare outside the top ten too, she was beaten by Jodie Williams in Gateshead, and was only 7th in Monaco, beaten by Kambundji & Bryant, amongst others, who Schippers beat in Hungary 3 days before. I would squeeze Schippers in above her, especially as she is now only doing the 200m.

                w400m - the top 3 look reasonable, my disagreement is with lower down the field, I think Felix will beat McLeod and I wouldn't have Azevado in the top 10 at all, there are others with much better sheets this year in terms of head-to-heads and placings.

                w100mh - I would definitely have Nadine Visser as making the final, she has been improving nicely since coming back from injury.

                w4x100m - despite losing a key member, I think GER will still finish ahead of NED, who will be lower down the list.

                wx400m - I don't have Bahamas as making the final at all, and have BEL & UKR finishing ahead of FRA.

                wLJ - a tough one to predict! I don't disagree with the reasoning of the top 3, but I have Spanovic outside the medals.

                wHept - I have Vetter above Krizsán. I agree Bougard will finish the top US woman

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                • #38
                  My main disagreements:

                  w200m - I can see the argument for the top 2, but I would predict Jackson, Thompson & SMU all finishing above SAFP. Jackson is certainly looking like a medal candidate, her win over SMU was not insignificant and points to her beating her in Tokyo. Thompson is always going to be a big ? and whilst stronger over 100m this year, and despite coming 3rd at the NC's, I have her down as beating SAFP in Tokyo.
                  I would have Okagbare outside the top ten too, she was beaten by Jodie Williams in Gateshead, and was only 7th in Monaco, beaten by Kambundji & Bryant, amongst others, who Schippers beat in Hungary 3 days before. I would squeeze Schippers in above her, especially as she is now only doing the 200m.

                  w400m - the top 3 look reasonable, my disagreement is with lower down the field, I think Felix will beat McLeod and I wouldn't have Azevado in the top 10 at all, there are others with much better sheets this year in terms of head-to-heads and placings.

                  w100mh - I would definitely have Nadine Visser as making the final, she has been improving nicely since coming back from injury.

                  w4x100m - despite losing a key member, I think GER will still finish ahead of NED, who will be lower down the list.

                  wx400m - I don't have Bahamas as making the final at all, and have BEL & UKR finishing ahead of FRA.

                  wLJ - a tough one to predict! I don't disagree with the reasoning of the top 3, but I have Spanovic outside the medals.

                  wHept - I have Vetter above Krizsán. I agree Bougard will finish the top US woman

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by booond View Post
                    Six women can win the w200. You have to pick one of them.
                    Not directly related, but I’ve always found it interesting that the 200, far more than the 100, seems to be an event where a runner can have a really good day and blow past their PR by a good margin, never to come close to that time again. I’ve seen this at all levels, from HS to pro. Less likely in a a championship of course, since you have to make it through the rounds, but won’t be too surprised to see someone totally unexpected in the finals.

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                    • #40
                      I also keeping an eye out for Mboma and Masilingi to see if they can sneak in the 200m final.

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                      • #41
                        Anyone else entering Letsrun's Contest?

                        I have a group "Old Timers; We remember mailing contest entries in to TFN"

                        If anyone is interested.


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                        • #42
                          Originally posted by TWalsh View Post

                          Men's Shot Put is the clearest podium. The two Americans and me!
                          But what order? Crouser, Walsh, Kovacs ? is the predictable. But I have a feeling this is going to be a very unpredictable Olympics.



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                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Jnathletics View Post
                            Anyone else entering Letsrun's Contest?

                            I have a group "Old Timers; We remember mailing contest entries in to TFN"

                            If anyone is interested.

                            I'll take a look there .
                            "A beautiful theory killed by an ugly fact."
                            by Thomas Henry Huxley

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                              OK

                              Amos
                              T Cher
                              Korir
                              T Cher? Who is that?

                              Comment


                              • #45

                                One last shout out to Sampsa Lahtonen, known in these parts as LopenUupunut. He's the defending Olympic champion in the Dutch Atstat Olympics prediction contest in 2016. Sampsa beat 396 other track and field gurus from around the world to win the title! He has one more day to enjoy as defending champion! Good luck to everyone!!

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