T&FN OG Picks

[booond]

My thought, Ta Lou or Pandini winning would be a huge long shot, but if those 8 make up the final, I wouldn't be surprised at any of them finishing last.

If those are the 8, Prandini is close to a 100-1 shot to win and Ta Lou maybe 30-1. Everyone else is 10-1 or lower. People finish last for mulitiple reasons but they win for a single reason - best on that day.

No one cares who finishes last.

[Bruce Kritzler]

Agree, although I'm not sure Obiri even makes the podium. Can she hang in low 14s territory?

Won't be a low 14 race. too hot/humid.

[LopenUupunut]

Hassan is the Cheruiyot of the 1500, has to hammer early to break from Kipyegon. It's the DL on steriods, just like Doha.

Coming into Doha no one really knew what shape Kipyegon was in, but she had a 3:59 SB, so hammering early to drop her made sense.

Kipyegon is coming to Tokyo with a 3:51 SB; which need not mean Hassan won't try the same strategy (it worked last time, and should serve well to drop everybody else), but she'd better be really, really confident of her ability. Hassan isn't a bad kicker, so it's not the only approach she can try. That said, she did tend to have awkward tactics earlier in her career when she didn't front-run.

[ATK]

Prandini... no. Ta Lou medalist maybe, but she's not running down all six of the top six.

My thought, Ta Lou or Pandini winning would be a huge long shot, but if those 8 make up the final, I wouldn't be surprised at any of them finishing last.

[Steele]

Linden Hall (AUS) will be top 5 in the W1500m (and beat her compatriate Hull)

Who is she going to beat? You have Kipyegon, Hassan, Muir, GDS, PSP, plus whichever Ethiopians to go through. Top ten, why not. Top five, super tough.

Hassan is the Cheruiyot of the 1500, has to hammer early to break from Kipyegon. It's the DL on steriods, just like Doha.

[cigar95]

A few days ago I was looking at my T&FN Olympic Preview from 1972. Back in the day when the printed magazine was the only game in town, what a fabulous compilation that was. I miss that level of detail but it's now spread out over the T&FN web site.
I really wish the A-D categories were still part of the preview. Especially seeing who got to be an "A". But I think Faina Myelnik was a class A in '76, so there are always huge surprises..

[Steele]

Hassan will win the 5000 over obiri. She has lost 5 times to obiri, but 3:51 and 29.06 is so much better than Obiri.

Hassan, obiri, tsegay.

Agree, although I'm not sure Obiri even makes the podium. Can she hang in low 14s territory?

[Steele]

Purrier St Pierre will medal--which I don't know.

+1

[aaronk]

Purrier St Pierre will medal--which I don't know.

[booond]

Six or Eight?

Thomas, SAFP, Jackson, Prandini, ETH, SMU, DAS, Ta Lou (longest shot)

Prandini... no. Ta Lou medalist maybe, but she's not running down all six of the top six.

[ATK]

Six women can win the w200. You have to pick one of them.

Six or Eight?

Thomas, SAFP, Jackson, Prandini, ETH, SMU, DAS, Ta Lou (longest shot)

[LopenUupunut]

Men's HJ wasn't that difficult for me.

We'll see how many of the big 5 T&FN's formchart puts in the same order you did. I could pull their names out of a hat at random and make a solid case that whatever came up was the right order And the bookies seem equally mystified.

Not to mention it's the one event known for total shockers happening...

Agreeing with everybody (except T&FN) on Jackson.

[AFelixFan]

Agreed. I'm actually picking her for 200m gold

Same here. I have her down for 100m bronze, too.

[TWalsh]

Still more pickable than the mHJ's going to be...

Men's HJ wasn't that difficult for me. I'm pulling my hair out trying to pick the W-200 and M-5000!

[ATK]

I think Jackson's 100/200 chances are being severely underrated. Unless injured, she's not leaving Tokyo without an individual sprint medal.

Agreed. I'm actually picking her for 200m gold