T&FN OG Picks

[Powell]

Someone didn't bother to check the entry lists... Katir is picked for 3rd in the 1500, but he was never entered in that event; he opted for the 5000.

[_Jay]

I think Jackson's 100/200 chances are being severely underrated. Unless injured, she's not leaving Tokyo without an individual sprint medal.

Kinda agree. But I can also understand why. She has a shot to medal in both.

But you also don’t have to work very hard to have a very possible medal prediction, that leaves her out of the top 3. It’s what makes this whole thing interesting.

[Big Tusk]

They have 52s? ITN.

Will they need 52s? Going back to London 2012 (so 2 Olympic 10ks and 4 WC 10ks) the winner has run under 54.0 for his last lap exactly once (Farah's 53.48 in London after a derisory first 24 laps). More often the winner closes in the 55.0-56.0 range. I don't think anyone in the field has shown the ability to close a 10k in sub 55, of course none of them has run a championship 10k in the super shoes AFAIK so maybe this all goes out the window in 18 hrs.

Edit: nevermind. Apparently Barega and Kejelcha close their Ethiopian trials race this year in sub 53.

F'real?!! I did not know that!

And when he ran 7:26 to beat Jakob last year in Rome his last 200 was 27.9; last K was 2:27.1

[Atticus]

Yep, when Kiplimo beat Barega in Ostrava last year, he finished the 12:48 with a 27.3 last 200m. His 26:33 this spring was not aided by the super shoes.

F'real?!! I did not know that!

[Big Tusk]

For that matter, Kiplimo has a kick, though it hasn't been tested in a championship meet yet.

Yep, when Kiplimo beat Barega in Ostrava last year, he finished the 12:48 with a 27.3 last 200m. His 26:33 this spring was not aided by the super shoes. Don't sleep on him.

[CPorts75]

Deadline is tomorrow.

The contests close for your last mutations Thursday July 29th 2021 24:00 (CEST Time - GMT +2:00)
That is about 2 hours before the start of the first athletics event.

https://www.atstat.org/contest/

Thank-you!

[Atticus]

Cheptegei has a kick
For that matter, Kiplimo has a kick.

They have 52s? ITN.

[LopenUupunut]

Cheptegei has a kick, too. He won in Doha by outkicking Kejelcha at the end, and pushed Mo pretty hard in '17.

For that matter, Kiplimo has a kick, though it hasn't been tested in a championship meet yet.

[Atticus]

Normally your theory would be true. But others would say, "When in doubt, go with the 26:11 PB." Cheptegei has had seven weeks since his Golden Gala race to get his fitness level up. Both sides have good points.

I think K and B can with a hot pace and still have A kick. With the heat in Tokyo, the pace can't be too fast.

[TWalsh]

Do we know Cheptegei's fitness? He and Kiplimo have the pace; Barega and Kejelcha have the finish. When in doubt, go with the kickers.

Normally your theory would be true. But others would say, "When in doubt, go with the 26:11 PB." Cheptegei has had seven weeks since his Golden Gala race to get his fitness level up. Both sides have good points.

[Jnathletics]

Do we know Cheptegei's fitness? He and Kiplimo have the pace; Barega and Kejelcha have the finish. When in doubt, go with the kickers.

Didn't you watch the Triathlon? It's the Grinders that have the advantage in Tokyo.

[Atticus]

In the first track final. Barega is great, but I think Kiplimo will win.

Do we know Cheptegei's fitness? He and Kiplimo have the pace; Barega and Kejelcha have the finish. When in doubt, go with the kickers.

[catson52]

In the first track final. Barega is great, but I think Kiplimo will win.

[LopenUupunut]

According to an Ethiopian poster on letsrun, there is a fight going on between Ethiopian track federation and Ethiopian olympic committee. Olympic committee appears to be winning as they are in control on who gets on planes to Tokyo. Girma was an add by the EOC and the 2nd and 3rd placers at the E trials were told to go home. Wale is the ??? on what he is running. Thought he just Q in 5k but is on start list for 5k and SC?????? But Ethiopians have 4 listed in both events

And rumor that EOC is trying to get Bekele in the marathon.

Clear as mud per usual.

Wale and Girma are both on the start list for the SC heats, so that part's a little less muddy now.

[Jnathletics]

Why do the TFN picks say Girma is not in the 3000St? He's on the start list.

According to an Ethiopian poster on letsrun, there is a fight going on between Ethiopian track federation and Ethiopian olympic committee. Olympic committee appears to be winning as they are in control on who gets on planes to Tokyo. Girma was an add by the EOC and the 2nd and 3rd placers at the E trials were told to go home. Wale is the ??? on what he is running. Thought he just Q in 5k but is on start list for 5k and SC?????? But Ethiopians have 4 listed in both events

And rumor that EOC is trying to get Bekele in the marathon.

Clear as mud per usual.