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2021 wOG 4x4:

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    ATK
    Senior Member

  • ATK
    replied
    Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post
    The point is, the US doesn't need to run her. They're not POL or GBR who would risk it because they don't have the depth, the US does and do not need to, they can run someone fresh.

    Imagine if they ran her on 4th, and the US only had a 10m lead on JAM, and she ends up running a tired 50+ split and the JAM anchor pips her...
    This hypothetical was discussed in that long Tokyo 4x4 thread before the Olympics. The idea of traffic at the 1st exchange, Jamaica and Poland potentially challenging the US etc. Yet despite McLaughlin and Kaczmarek (POL) handing off together and Felix "underperforming" expectations, it was still a blow out. Unless something drastic happens, or maybe if McLaughlin & Muhammad dont run, the US will almost certainly win. A perfect situation of both a team over performing and the US underperforming would have to happen, which in the past 10, years, we have only seen in 2015.

    As noted above, splitting 49.5 or better is very exclusive for US women in the past decade. Thats over a second slower than what she ran in Tokyo and I think she can do that after a 1:55/1:54
    ATK
    Senior Member
    Last edited by ATK; 09-25-2021, 02:46 PM.

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  • NotDutra5
    Senior Member

  • NotDutra5
    replied
    Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post
    The point is, the US doesn't need to run her. They're not POL or GBR who would risk it because they don't have the depth, the US does and do not need to, they can run someone fresh.

    Imagine if they ran her on 4th, and the US only had a 10m lead on JAM, and she ends up running a tired 50+ split and the JAM anchor pips her...
    Imagine if the US had a 10m lead on JAM and need a 49.3 from someone or they are behind JAM because they needed a quicker leg somewhere and Mu's 49 flat is not run which I think she can run coming back from a 1:54 800m. It works both ways.

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  • Wiederganger
    Senior Member

  • Wiederganger
    replied
    The point is, the US doesn't need to run her. They're not POL or GBR who would risk it because they don't have the depth, the US does and do not need to, they can run someone fresh.

    Imagine if they ran her on 4th, and the US only had a 10m lead on JAM, and she ends up running a tired 50+ split and the JAM anchor pips her...

    Leave a comment:

  • Mr Lover Lover
    Senior Member

  • Mr Lover Lover
    replied
    Originally posted by ATK View Post

    Yes, Im saying similar turn around time of an hour between the 400m and 4x4 final in NCAAs.
    I think if she's running 1:54 anything she wont be running that 4x4. Given how tired she looked after she ran that time after Prefontaine. In another breath, the US maybe so far ahead she could run anchor and run 50. Depends on who the 800m competition is.

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  • ATK
    Senior Member

  • ATK
    replied
    Originally posted by jazzcyclist View Post
    Mu didn't run the 800 at NCAA's, she ran the 400, both indoors and outdoors.
    Yes, Im saying similar turn around time of an hour between the 400m and 4x4 final in NCAAs.

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  • jazzcyclist
    Senior Member

  • jazzcyclist
    replied
    Originally posted by ATK View Post

    One thing on Mu's side is that she already knows the USA wants her on the relay (proven this year in Tokyo) and she is still super young. I would give her the benefit of the doubt to be able to run the 800m final in 1:54.xx, then come back an hour later and split at least 49.30 in a similar turn around time to NCAA's this year. Raevyn Rogers also didn't have much issue in 2017 (ran slower 2:00 & 49.7 times though)
    Mu didn't run the 800 at NCAA's, she ran the 400, both indoors and outdoors.

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  • Davidokun
    Senior Member

  • Davidokun
    replied
    Originally posted by ATK View Post
    And sure we can predict what Shamire Little can possibly do, but she needs to make the team first as well.
    Making the team should be less difficult, given Muhammad's wild card.

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  • ATK
    Senior Member

  • ATK
    replied
    Originally posted by NotDutra5 View Post
    She either runs the final or not at all. Question will be if a less fresh Mu would still be better than the 4th choice for the relay. It's possible that the answer is yes. We'll have to see.
    This is what I'm looking at. Lets say Mu splits 49.52 (1.2 seconds slower than her Tokyo split), here are the US 400m women who have faster global championship splits the past 10 years:

    McLaughlin (likely on the relay)
    Muhammad (likely on the relay)
    Felix (needs to make the team)
    Richards-Ross (retired)
    McCorrory (retired)
    Hastings (retired)

    That includes names like Beard, Wimbley, Hayes, Francis, Ellis, Spencer, Jonathas etc. And sure we can predict what Shamire Little can possibly do, but she needs to make the team first as well.

    One thing on Mu's side is that she already knows the USA wants her on the relay (proven this year in Tokyo) and she is still super young. I would give her the benefit of the doubt to be able to run the 800m final in 1:54.xx, then come back an hour later and split at least 49.30 in a similar turn around time to NCAA's this year. Raevyn Rogers also didn't have much issue in 2017 (ran slower 2:00 & 49.7 times though)
    ATK
    Senior Member
    Last edited by ATK; 09-24-2021, 06:21 PM.

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  • NotDutra5
    Senior Member

  • NotDutra5
    replied
    She either runs the final or not at all. Question will be if a less fresh Mu would still be better than the 4th choice for the relay. It's possible that the answer is yes. We'll have to see.

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  • jazzcyclist
    Senior Member

  • jazzcyclist
    replied
    Mu could anchor the 4x400 in the heats. If she runs barely fast enough to qualify that shouldn't hurt her 800 performance the next day.

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  • Trickstat
    Senior Member

  • Trickstat
    replied
    Also, if she runs the 800 and wins it she won't have anytime to enjoy it in front of a home crowd as she'll need to dash off to meet up with the rest of the 4x400 team. Why would you use her in the 4x400 if running the 800m beforehand means she isn't actually quicker than the next choice?

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  • Mr Lover Lover
    Senior Member

  • Mr Lover Lover
    replied
    Originally posted by ATK View Post
    Well luckily next year's schedule doesn't have the 400m and 4x4 overlap so all 400m finalists will be able to at minimum run the 4x4 heats.

    One question I'm sure will come up is if Mu will be put on the 4x4 final team again.

    Eugene 2022
    Day 10 Afternoon Session
    18:35 W800 Meters Final
    19:50 W 4x400 Meters Relay Final

    I think she should be fine though
    She should be fine? Im sure she wont be running the 4x4m relay if she's running the 800m. I don't think she's even going to be doing the 400m because she is not ready to beat Shaunae Miller Uibo because she will have to rub sub 48.5.

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  • Wiederganger
    Senior Member

  • Wiederganger
    replied
    Originally posted by ATK View Post
    Well luckily next year's schedule doesn't have the 400m and 4x4 overlap so all 400m finalists will be able to at minimum run the 4x4 heats.

    One question I'm sure will come up is if Mu will be put on the 4x4 final team again.

    Eugene 2022
    Day 10 Afternoon Session
    18:35 W800 Meters Final
    19:50 W 4x400 Meters Relay Final

    I think she should be fine though
    Eh? They'd be absolutely mad to run her in the 4x4 final, just over 1 hour after the 800m Final. No way should she run the 4x4F.

    Leave a comment:

  • Juicy News
    Senior Member

  • Juicy News
    replied
    Originally posted by jazzcyclist View Post
    I wonder what the coaches would have done if Hayes and Felix had won silver and bronze respectively. That would have been their nightmare scenario.
    My guess is Muhammad gets the boot.

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  • jazzcyclist
    Senior Member

  • jazzcyclist
    replied
    I wonder what the coaches would have done if Hayes and Felix had won silver and bronze respectively. That would have been their nightmare scenario.

    Leave a comment:

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