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  • Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post

    Mboma's first 100 has certainly improved and she was nowhere near last place coming off the bend.

    Whilst she has been amazing this season, let's not forget another athlete with DSD, Seyni, only did so-so in Tokyo. She was unable to race this year, so rustiness is a real factor, but some were thinking she should do amazing things over 200m but hasn't yet. Masilingi was very good, but does she have the same potential as Mboma? No. So we shouldn't over do the DSD argument, when Seyni's not on the same level, despite having run amazing times over 400m
    The DSD debate should go beyond how successful the athlete(s) perform.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post

      ​Why are you comparing her to Bol?
      Little is 26 and has been hurdling for a decade, since she was 16.
      Bol is 21 and this is just her 3rd year hurdling.

      A more appropriate comparison for her potential would be Muhammad, who is 31. At 26 she had been competing in the hurdles for a decade too. Little is faster than Muhammad at that age. Maybe Little can match Muhammad's latter part of her caterer.

      There's been so much talk by some posters these last couple of seasons on McLaughlin's potential to dominate the event and be AOTD. Yet she's been hurdling herself for many, many years, is technically sound, yet Bol, 6 months younger, only her 3rd year into the event, is snapping at her heels. Let's see how they both develop, because at the moment , Bol's potential is by far the greatest of the top women hurdles.



      The comparison to Bol struck me as odd as well and even as I agree that when Little executes her race she has tremendous potential, I am far from sure that I agree that this will be enough to match Bol. Maybe Little executing perfectly could be enough to beat Bol this year, but what about next year?

      Femke Bol has come on leaps and bounds. She never seems to have a bad race. Personally she is one of the athletes I most look forward to following next year. I won't be surprised if she would progress enough to beat even McLaughlin. To me it seems that Bol has more upside as she really has not worked with hurdles all that long.

      I think it makes sense for Little to stay with the hurdles, but I suspect she has at least as a good a chance of beating Muhammed as she has of beating Bol in Eugene next year. I suspect she won't beat any of the Tokyo medalists. My guess for the Eugene2022 podium would be; McLaughlin gold, Bol silver and Mohammad bronze...

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      • I was referring to this year, as they’ve had close races and the topic was about SL getting a medal, so compared to the bronze medallist, rather than projecting too far forward - but I agree Bol seems to have more future upside at this point

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        • I understand, jimbojames. Little and Bol had a couple of cracking races, with the best one likely being the Stockholm DL.It was close 2 days later in Hungary as well, but not in Gateshead, Lausanne or Zurich. Little have yet to beat Bol I think. Regarding Little's chances of getting a medal, I think it makes better sense to try predict what the situation will be next year rather than to focus on 2021.

          No matter what I think we agree that Little is likely to have better chances in the hurdles than the flat as well as that she has great potential.

          6 years ago after the Beijing World Championships I thought Shamier Little would have a very bright future. I was impressed by her race in the final where she got a silver, after she had looked shaky in both the heat and semi and I also had the impression she was carrying an injury.I expected her to develop into a clutch performer able to deliver her best under pressure, but it seems I was woefully wrong about that.I hope she will be able to execute her races more often going forward.

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          • How does the Zurich mPV stack up in marks for place? 3rd place 5.93/19-5 1/4? 6th (and last) place 5.83/19-1 1/2?

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            • Originally posted by Grazerite View Post
              How does the Zurich mPV stack up in marks for place? 3rd place 5.93/19-5 1/4? 6th (and last) place 5.83/19-1 1/2?
              1 6.18i 20-3¼ Mondo Duplantis (Sweden) Glasgow 20
              2 6.02 19-9 Sam Kendricks (US) Lausanne 20
              3 5.95 19-6¼ Dmitri Markov (Australia) Athens 99
              Jeff Hartwig (US) Monaco 99
              Renaud Lavillenie (France) EC 18
              4 5.95 19-6¼ Tim Lobinger (Germany) Athens 99
              5 5.88i 19-3½ ————Duplantis Clermont-Ferrand 18
              6 5.88i 19-3½ Piotr Lisek (Poland) Clermont-Ferrand 18
              7 5.88i 19-3½ Kévin Menaldo (France) Clermont-Ferrand 18

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              • Originally posted by IloveFelix View Post

                The comparison to Bol struck me as odd as well and even as I agree that when Little executes her race she has tremendous potential, I am far from sure that I agree that this will be enough to match Bol. Maybe Little executing perfectly could be enough to beat Bol this year, but what about next year?

                Femke Bol has come on leaps and bounds. She never seems to have a bad race. Personally she is one of the athletes I most look forward to following next year. I won't be surprised if she would progress enough to beat even McLaughlin. To me it seems that Bol has more upside as she really has not worked with hurdles all that long.

                I think it makes sense for Little to stay with the hurdles, but I suspect she has at least as a good a chance of beating Muhammed as she has of beating Bol in Eugene next year. I suspect she won't beat any of the Tokyo medalists. My guess for the Eugene2022 podium would be; McLaughlin gold, Bol silver and Mohammad bronze...
                We have to also acknowledge that progression is not a straight line up at the pace we expect it to go.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post

                  ​There's been so much talk by some posters these last couple of seasons on McLaughlin's potential to dominate the event and be AOTD. Yet she's been hurdling herself for many, many years, is technically sound, yet Bol, 6 months younger, only her 3rd year into the event, is snapping at her heels. Let's see how they both develop, because at the moment , Bol's potential is by far the greatest of the top women hurdles.
                  Bol is terrific but she doesn't have more potential than McLaughlin. Not even close. Prodigies own the advantage. Never make the mistake of assigning stepladder types to overcome the prodigies. For every time it plays out that way there are exponentially more examples the other way. The true prodigies right now are Duplantis and Mu and McLaughlin and Jakob and Mahuchikh. Probably a few I am forgetting. Benefit of a doubt always has to tilt in that direction. McLaughlin made the American Olympic team at 16. Bol was struggling to break 56 at 19.

                  McLaughlin is a superior athlete than Bol. That is the decisive edge. It is the reason Sydney has so much more bounce and finishing speed during the run to the wire. I detailed this in the track and field forum on Reddit about a month prior to Tokyo. Bol and McLaughlin have remarkably similar splits over the first 8 barriers. This was hardly evident in the Tokyo final alone. I was studying one race after another and shocked at the parallels. Bol and McLaughlin are virtually even splitting over 1-7. Sydney takes a one tenth lead hurdling 8, it doubles over 9, but by far the greatest difference is the dash to the wire. The cumulative margin more than doubles. Sydney uses the more natural athletic ability to get her foot down quicker and then bursts away. Bol may look great on that long striding run to the wire alongside aching Shamier Little. But substitute Sydney McLaughlin and the pecking order is reversed.

                  I really don't see this changing. Bol has made remarkable progress but you can't continue to assign exponential growth. She is extremely smart and dedicated and consistent with great endurance. She persisted until she could sustain 15 steps between every hurdle, meaning she uses her superior left lead every time. That allowed her to quickly enter medal territory. But it also means the ceiling is closer than it appears. Only two years experience is overrated.

                  Lack of ideal foot speed is the issue. Bol's longtime coach Bram Peters concedes that over history the majority of 400 races are won by flyers not diesels. Bol is a diesel. During the final hurdles and sprint phase Sydney has greater reservoir of quick twitch turnover rate.

                  There are several areas Bol can work on. Seemingly she takes too many steps before the first hurdle, which is 45 meters from the starting line. Bol never seems to start aggressively enough to begin with. She concedes she has that issue at 400 flat, not knowing how to handle the opening 100 meters. It also shows up in hurdles. Only in the Olympic final did Bol admittedly and admirably go for it.

                  Sydney now uses 14 steps between hurdles for the first half of the race. I'm not sure enough emphasis is placed on that. At her 5-9 height it requires surreal stride length and speed, along with ability to seamlessly alternate the lead leg. Bol has a weak right lead right now. At her 6-0 height 14 steps early is certainly available but it would require lots of work especially on that right lead.

                  Bol needs to take more risks. At the end of the race she is always fresher than everyone else. That is not ideal. You're supposed to all but die at 400m, whether flat or hurdles. She is also very high above each hurdle, seemingly 10cm clearance. I have seen interviews in which she emphasizes that problem. But she says it is difficult to fix because she has dual issues...the left lead is too high simultaneous with the right trail leg too low. If she could level that out she'd land quicker and maintain momentum.

                  Improving foot speed will be interesting. I'm sure they'll work on that during the offseason. Probably more emphasis on 200. I have to say Bol was faster than I realized during the relay splits. She logically held a bit back during the mixed final, since she still had rounds of 400 hurdles. In both rounds of the women's 4 x 400 she was receiving the baton basically stalled out in lane 5 then forced to hesitate and dodge all the surrounding traffic. Consequently those splits were probably a few tenths better than they looked on paper.






                  Last edited by Awsi Dooger; 09-13-2021, 03:00 AM.

                  Comment


                  • One other aspect Bol can work on is cheating toward the inside of the lane line. That will come with more experience. Edwin Moses said he always ran 8 inches from the left line and it saved 3 meters compared to running in the center. If you look at the Tokyo final, around the bend after hurdles 7 and 8 Muhammad and McLaughlin were running in the left center of the lane while Bol was often in the right center. Early in her career I often noticed Muhammad making that mistake herself, especially while at USC. McLaughlin has been left biased since the first race I watched.

                    I also should have mentioned that only recently has Bol managed to sustain 15 steps throughout, as opposed to dropping to 16 steps on 9 and 10. She is still adjusting to what it feels like to use 15 throughout. That was evident in the Tokyo final when the adrenaline caused her to get closer to the barrier than typical on 9. John Anderson on the streaming coverage did the live call and immediately said that Bol chopped her steps on 9. She actually did not chop steps. It was the prescribed 15. But this was precisely as Sydney immediately to Bol's left began to inch in front. Bol sensed that and instinctively lengthened her stride to keep pace. But it actually caused her to get too close to 9 during the final few strides. That situation did not change the outcome but it did expand the final margin and caused Bol to finish slightly above 52 seconds instead of slightly below.

                    Fascinating race. I've watched both 400 hurdles races many times. Warholm takes 13 strides throughout but often requires more over the final hurdle or two. He is accustomed to it and makes the adjustment smoothly. In Tokyo he was still long striding and using 13 through 9 barriers. Midway between 9 and 10 Warholm recognized that he needed to extend to 15. But instead of using late short chop steps he figured it out early enough that the transition was perfect and he accelerated over 10. It was like a high jumper with ideal launch distance and angle from the bar.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post
                      Whilst she has been amazing this season, let's not forget another athlete with DSD, Seyni, only did so-so in Tokyo. She was unable to race this year, so rustiness is a real factor, but some were thinking she should do amazing things over 200m but hasn't yet. Masilingi was very good, but does she have the same potential as Mboma? No. So we shouldn't over do the DSD argument, when Seyni's not on the same level, despite having run amazing times over 400m
                      Seyni's unremarkable performance this year shouldn't be taken as an indicator of anything. Seyni took time off, thinking the 200m wasn't going to be an option this year then jumped back into training in May or June upon learning otherwise. We'll have to wait until next year to find out what Seyni is capable of in the 200m (if the women's 200m remains open to DSD athletes).

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by ATK View Post

                        We have to also acknowledge that progression is not a straight line up at the pace we expect it to go.
                        For sure, ATK. progression tends to be far from a straight line. I won't be very surprised if Bol should regress next year. Her development has been truly spectacular. It would be shocking if the pace would be sustainable and if she would keep making progress at the same speed.

                        If we take a look at her development in the 400hurdles, and project progress in a straight line, we would expect her to run around 50.40 next year. Beating McLaughlin WR by about a second:

                        2019 55.32
                        2020 53.79 (An inprovment of 1.53)
                        2021 52.03 (An improvment of 1.76)

                        2022 50.40ish???

                        Expecting such a straight line progression would in my opinion be ludicrous.

                        Even so, I think this is a bit besides the point. Anything is possible, but we do agree that Bol is more likely to improve than regress? We also agree that she is likely to improve more than Little? If not, it would be good to learn why not.

                        If yes, I am not sure what your comment about progression is not a straight line really changes for the matter at hand (Little's medal chances in Eugene 400 flat vs hurdles and Little's potential vs Bol's)...

                        It is entirely plausible that I am too optimistic on behalf of Bol, when I predict she is likely to beat Muhammad but not McLaughlin next year. I am really looking forward to the 400hurdles next year, but oddly I am even more keen on the women's 400hurdles than the men's ATM...
                        Last edited by IloveFelix; 09-13-2021, 09:10 AM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post

                          Bol is terrific but she doesn't have more potential than McLaughlin. Not even close. Prodigies own the advantage. Never make the mistake of assigning stepladder types to overcome the prodigies.
                          I disagree with this statement. In fact the opposite is true: most child prodigies never go on to fulfil their perceived potential. The majority of Olympic & World Champions were not child prodigies.

                          Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
                          McLaughlin made the American Olympic team at 16. Bol was struggling to break 56 at 19.
                          Disingenuous, as you well know. That was Bol's first year at trying the 400mh....and she ended that season as the European U20 Champion, as well as making the SF in Doha - pretty impressive for her first year in the event, most would think.


                          Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
                          Bol and McLaughlin have remarkably similar splits over the first 8 barriers. This was hardly evident in the Tokyo final alone. I was studying one race after another and shocked at the parallels. Bol and McLaughlin are virtually even splitting over 1-7.
                          Not quite. Bol is slow to the first hurdle, McLaughlin has already touched down whilst Bol is still in the air. Bol surges at around 80m in all her races.

                          Her first 2 hurdles were something Meuwly recognised as a weakness and one of the things they worked on in 2020, however, her first hurdle is still under par.

                          Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
                          Sydney uses the more natural athletic ability to get her foot down quicker and then bursts away.
                          That isn't down to 'more natural athletic ability', that's her superior hurdling technique, which she has been working on, and why she was doing 100mh, to get her foot down quicker, amongst other things.


                          Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
                          Bol has made remarkable progress but you can't continue to assign exponential growth.
                          I don't think anyone expects exponential growth.

                          Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
                          Only two years experience is overrated.
                          I disagree, especially in such a technical event.


                          Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
                          There are several areas Bol can work on.
                          Ah, so you do agree there is room for improvement?

                          Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
                          Bol has a weak right lead right now. At her 6-0 height 14 steps early is certainly available but it would require lots of work especially on that right lead.

                          Bol needs to take more risks. At the end of the race she is always fresher than everyone else. That is not ideal. You're supposed to all but die at 400m, whether flat or hurdles. She is also very high above each hurdle, seemingly 10cm clearance. I have seen interviews in which she emphasizes that problem. But she says it is difficult to fix because she has dual issues...the left lead is too high simultaneous with the right trail leg too low. If she could level that out she'd land quicker and maintain momentum.

                          Improving foot speed will be interesting. I'm sure they'll work on that during the offseason. Probably more emphasis on 200. I have to say Bol was faster than I realized during the relay splits. She logically held a bit back during the mixed final, since she still had rounds of 400 hurdles. In both rounds of the women's 4 x 400 she was receiving the baton basically stalled out in lane 5 then forced to hesitate and dodge all the surrounding traffic. Consequently those splits were probably a few tenths better than they looked on paper.
                          You've listed some of the things she can work on, yet don't appear to agree her potential for improvement is greater than McLaughlin's?







                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by IloveFelix View Post

                            Expecting such a straight line progression would in my opinion be ludicrous.

                            Even so, I think this is a bit besides the point. Anything is possible, but we do agree that Bol is more likely to improve than regress? We also agree that she is likely to improve more than Little? If not, it would be good to learn why not....
                            I agree ^^
                            She will now obviously only be able to improve in smaller increments - and may not run faster that this years PB, who knows - but neither may McLaughlin never beat hers.

                            There is plenty for Bol to work on and improve, and surely she is more likely to improve than Little.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post

                              Bol is terrific but she doesn't have more potential than McLaughlin. Not even close. Prodigies own the advantage. Never make the mistake of assigning stepladder types to overcome the prodigies. For every time it plays out that way there are exponentially more examples the other way. The true prodigies right now are Duplantis and Mu and McLaughlin and Jakob and Mahuchikh. Probably a few I am forgetting. Benefit of a doubt always has to tilt in that direction. McLaughlin made the American Olympic team at 16. Bol was struggling to break 56 at 19.
                              Prodigies tend to fizzle out younger than others.

                              And speaking of struggling to break 56, guess who couldn't break 56 at age 22? Dalilah Muhammad.

                              McLaughlin is just 6 months older than Bol, but in training years she's more like 2 years ahead of Bol if you compare the duration and intensity of training and competition they had in their teens. From where they are now, Bol will almost surely improve more than McLaughlin will; I'd say it's 50/50 on whether she'll actually surpass McLaughlin.

                              Comment


                              • I'm even 50/50 on Bol surpassing Muhammad next year, or even McLaughlin certainly winning Gold in Eugene

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