Zürich DL 2021

[bad hammy]

I could see McL starting to look at other events (100H, 400, LJ?, 200?).

Following in the footsteps of that well-known long jumper Edwin Moses . . .

[Atticus]

Warholm has Benjamin right on his heels in that other worldly territory. Muhammad was already being Olympic/World Champion and 2x World record holder yet found motivation to run what she did this year.

You're right, everyone is motivated by different goals.
Staying ahead of Benjamin seems like a negative goal - don't lose. Do you think he will run sub-46 again?
Muhammad, as you mentioned, was 'chasing' Sydney, even as she was beating her.
Do you think SMcL will PR before the Paris Olympics?

People like Mondo will always have the motivation, because he can best the WR by 1cm and always think he can go one more.
Karsten and Rai and Sydney and Dalilah have put themselves a long way away from another PR.

[ATK]

Human nature.
All 3 (KW, SM, DM) worked super hard to win global titles and run impossible times. They have. Bol has not.
I really hope you're right and they still have unfinished business (more titles), but the times that ran are, paradoxically, . . . discouraging.

I see times as only part of the motivation. McLaughlin has yet to win World Gold. Muhammad has always been put in the shadow of McLaughlin (even before and after USA's in 2019!) and could become the first woman to defend their world title. Warholm has Benjamin right on his heels in that other worldly territory. Muhammad was already Olympic/World Champion and 2x World record holder yet found motivation to run what she did this year.

Also, despite the improvement in the events, I still look at sub 52.8-ish (women) and sub 47.2-ish (men) as other worldly (so Bol and Benjamin are in the conversation IMO)

[Atticus]

How so?

Human nature.
All 3 (KW, SM, DM) worked super hard to win global titles and run impossible times. They have. Bol has not.
I really hope you're right and they still have unfinished business (more titles), but the times that ran are, paradoxically, . . . discouraging.

[ATK]

Ill make an outlandish statement here, Bol wont ever beat a healthy SM in a final. Muhammed now is a different story and I very much think she'll retain her title in Eugene.

2nd statement is not really outlandish considering what we have seen this year with her barely losing to McLaughlin in Tokyo despite coming off a hamstring injury and early training setbacks due to having covid.

[jazzcyclist]

Prodigies tend to fizzle out younger than others.

And speaking of struggling to break 56, guess who couldn't break 56 at age 22? Dalilah Muhammad.

Yep, Candace Hill and Kaylin Whitney were prodigies, not to mention Mary Cain and all the other distance prodigies.

[Mr Lover Lover]

Ill make an outlandish statement here, Bol wont ever beat a healthy SM in a final. Muhammed now is a different story and I very much think she'll retain her title in Eugene.

[ATK]

Bol is the hungriest now and that's important.

How so? There is an argument to be made that all 3 (+1 with Little) are equally if not more hungry than the others for various reasons.

[Atticus]

McL and Muh have the same problem that Warholm is now facing - having run TOO good a time. Bol is the hungriest now and that's important.
I could see McL starting to look at other events (100H, 400, LJ?, 200?). That said, I can't see Bol beating McL in a 400H Championship.

[ATK]

I'm even 50/50 on Bol surpassing Muhammad next year, or even McLaughlin certainly winning Gold in Eugene

[18.99s]

Bol is terrific but she doesn't have more potential than McLaughlin. Not even close. Prodigies own the advantage. Never make the mistake of assigning stepladder types to overcome the prodigies. For every time it plays out that way there are exponentially more examples the other way. The true prodigies right now are Duplantis and Mu and McLaughlin and Jakob and Mahuchikh. Probably a few I am forgetting. Benefit of a doubt always has to tilt in that direction. McLaughlin made the American Olympic team at 16. Bol was struggling to break 56 at 19.

Prodigies tend to fizzle out younger than others.

And speaking of struggling to break 56, guess who couldn't break 56 at age 22? Dalilah Muhammad.

McLaughlin is just 6 months older than Bol, but in training years she's more like 2 years ahead of Bol if you compare the duration and intensity of training and competition they had in their teens. From where they are now, Bol will almost surely improve more than McLaughlin will; I'd say it's 50/50 on whether she'll actually surpass McLaughlin.

[Wiederganger]

Expecting such a straight line progression would in my opinion be ludicrous.

Even so, I think this is a bit besides the point. Anything is possible, but we do agree that Bol is more likely to improve than regress? We also agree that she is likely to improve more than Little? If not, it would be good to learn why not....

I agree ^^
She will now obviously only be able to improve in smaller increments - and may not run faster that this years PB, who knows - but neither may McLaughlin never beat hers.

There is plenty for Bol to work on and improve, and surely she is more likely to improve than Little.

[Wiederganger]

Bol is terrific but she doesn't have more potential than McLaughlin. Not even close. Prodigies own the advantage. Never make the mistake of assigning stepladder types to overcome the prodigies.

I disagree with this statement. In fact the opposite is true: most child prodigies never go on to fulfil their perceived potential. The majority of Olympic & World Champions were not child prodigies.

McLaughlin made the American Olympic team at 16. Bol was struggling to break 56 at 19.

Disingenuous, as you well know. That was Bol's first year at trying the 400mh....and she ended that season as the European U20 Champion, as well as making the SF in Doha - pretty impressive for her first year in the event, most would think.

Bol and McLaughlin have remarkably similar splits over the first 8 barriers. This was hardly evident in the Tokyo final alone. I was studying one race after another and shocked at the parallels. Bol and McLaughlin are virtually even splitting over 1-7.

Not quite. Bol is slow to the first hurdle, McLaughlin has already touched down whilst Bol is still in the air. Bol surges at around 80m in all her races.

Her first 2 hurdles were something Meuwly recognised as a weakness and one of the things they worked on in 2020, however, her first hurdle is still under par.

Sydney uses the more natural athletic ability to get her foot down quicker and then bursts away.

That isn't down to 'more natural athletic ability', that's her superior hurdling technique, which she has been working on, and why she was doing 100mh, to get her foot down quicker, amongst other things.

Bol has made remarkable progress but you can't continue to assign exponential growth.

I don't think anyone expects exponential growth.

Only two years experience is overrated.

I disagree, especially in such a technical event.

There are several areas Bol can work on.

Ah, so you do agree there is room for improvement?

Bol has a weak right lead right now. At her 6-0 height 14 steps early is certainly available but it would require lots of work especially on that right lead.

Bol needs to take more risks. At the end of the race she is always fresher than everyone else. That is not ideal. You're supposed to all but die at 400m, whether flat or hurdles. She is also very high above each hurdle, seemingly 10cm clearance. I have seen interviews in which she emphasizes that problem. But she says it is difficult to fix because she has dual issues...the left lead is too high simultaneous with the right trail leg too low. If she could level that out she'd land quicker and maintain momentum.

Improving foot speed will be interesting. I'm sure they'll work on that during the offseason. Probably more emphasis on 200. I have to say Bol was faster than I realized during the relay splits. She logically held a bit back during the mixed final, since she still had rounds of 400 hurdles. In both rounds of the women's 4 x 400 she was receiving the baton basically stalled out in lane 5 then forced to hesitate and dodge all the surrounding traffic. Consequently those splits were probably a few tenths better than they looked on paper.

You've listed some of the things she can work on, yet don't appear to agree her potential for improvement is greater than McLaughlin's?

[IloveFelix]

We have to also acknowledge that progression is not a straight line up at the pace we expect it to go.

For sure, ATK. progression tends to be far from a straight line. I won't be very surprised if Bol should regress next year. Her development has been truly spectacular. It would be shocking if the pace would be sustainable and if she would keep making progress at the same speed.

If we take a look at her development in the 400hurdles, and project progress in a straight line, we would expect her to run around 50.40 next year. Beating McLaughlin WR by about a second:

2019 55.32
2020 53.79 (An inprovment of 1.53)
2021 52.03 (An improvment of 1.76)

2022 50.40ish???

Expecting such a straight line progression would in my opinion be ludicrous.

Even so, I think this is a bit besides the point. Anything is possible, but we do agree that Bol is more likely to improve than regress? We also agree that she is likely to improve more than Little? If not, it would be good to learn why not.

If yes, I am not sure what your comment about progression is not a straight line really changes for the matter at hand (Little's medal chances in Eugene 400 flat vs hurdles and Little's potential vs Bol's)...

It is entirely plausible that I am too optimistic on behalf of Bol, when I predict she is likely to beat Muhammad but not McLaughlin next year. I am really looking forward to the 400hurdles next year, but oddly I am even more keen on the women's 400hurdles than the men's ATM...

[18.99s]

Whilst she has been amazing this season, let's not forget another athlete with DSD, Seyni, only did so-so in Tokyo. She was unable to race this year, so rustiness is a real factor, but some were thinking she should do amazing things over 200m but hasn't yet. Masilingi was very good, but does she have the same potential as Mboma? No. So we shouldn't over do the DSD argument, when Seyni's not on the same level, despite having run amazing times over 400m

Seyni's unremarkable performance this year shouldn't be taken as an indicator of anything. Seyni took time off, thinking the 200m wasn't going to be an option this year then jumped back into training in May or June upon learning otherwise. We'll have to wait until next year to find out what Seyni is capable of in the 200m (if the women's 200m remains open to DSD athletes).