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  • IloveFelix
    replied
    Originally posted by ATK View Post
    I dont think you or Wiederganger (or anyone on the McLaughlin side) are wrong or raising false flags or anything, but I think everyone is just approaching it from different perspectives, with a bit of bias/preference sprinkled in as someone noted earlier.

    McLaughlin and Bol are both very young and very fast. There are good arguments for Bol having more upside (a few months younger, less time in the event, not as technically sound over the hurdles, can improve flat speed, no global golds yet, etc.) but there are good arguments for McLaughlin as well (can improve on hurdle technique, no world championship gold, still very young, already half a second faster than Bol at the "same age", etc.).

    Sure some arguments may produce more improvement and may mean more to others, but we have to acknowledge we really don't know, so making a sure fire prediction is just guess work. Remember in 2019, McLaughlin was basically handed the Doha gold by many because she was so young and fast. Not only before USAs, but even after USAs when Muhammad broke the world record. Also remember Little won world silver at the age of 20 and has won nothing since.

    My bias though will continue to pick Muhammad in Eugene. Bol and McLaughlin can duke it out for silver next year.
    This mirrors my thoughts rather well. I don't think Bol is a favorite to beat McLaughlin next year. My guess for the podium is:

    McLaughlin
    Bol
    Muhammad

    However I am far from sure about my GUESS. I can clearly see the case for Muhammad winning. Amazing results this year after illness and she has delivered in Championship settings so many times. Neither will I be surprised if another athlete occupies a place on the podium.

    I won't be at all shocked if Atticus is right and Bol never beats a healthy and motivated McLaughlin. Neither will I be very surprised if Mr Lover Lover is right and Bol never beats McLaughlin in a final. What I fail to grasp is how sure they seem to be even as it for me is impossible to gauge the potential of Bol, as she is still to raw.

    I have McLaughlin as the favourire myself, the reason my questions are directed towards the McLaughlin camp is not that I disagree with them about who is the favourite next year, it is just that the bulk of the surefire statements seem to originate with that camp.

    Leave a comment:


  • ATK
    replied
    Originally posted by IloveFelix View Post
    If I have raised a false flag I will be the first to apologize. It has not been my intention.
    I dont think you or Wiederganger (or anyone on the McLaughlin side) are wrong or raising false flags or anything, but I think everyone is just approaching it from different perspectives, with a bit of bias/preference sprinkled in as someone noted earlier.

    McLaughlin and Bol are both very young and very fast. There are good arguments for Bol having more upside (a few months younger, less time in the event, not as technically sound over the hurdles, can improve flat speed, no global golds yet, etc.) but there are good arguments for McLaughlin as well (can improve on hurdle technique, no world championship gold, still very young, already half a second faster than Bol at the "same age", etc.).

    Sure some arguments may produce more improvement and may mean more to others, but we have to acknowledge we really don't know, so making a sure fire prediction is just guess work. Remember in 2019, McLaughlin was basically handed the Doha gold by many because she was so young and fast. Not only before USAs, but even after USAs when Muhammad broke the world record. Also remember Little won world silver at the age of 20 and has won nothing since.

    My bias though will continue to pick Muhammad in Eugene. Bol and McLaughlin can duke it out for silver next year.

    Leave a comment:


  • IloveFelix
    replied
    Originally posted by NotDutra5 View Post

    Is anyone saying that Bol can't potentially beat anyone or are we flying a false flag here?
    Unsure, as always it is possible that I have misunderstood and am unintentionally flying a false flag. However I think there have been many statements in the thread severely underestimating Bol's achievement, talent, potential etc.


    Some examples below:

    Atticus:

    "If SM stays highly motivated.
    If SM just sticks to the 4H.
    If SM stays healthy.

    Then . . . I don't..."



    (Written about Anyones chances of beating McLaughlin for some time)




    Mr Lover Lover:

    "Ill make an outlandish statement here, Bol wont ever beat a healthy SM in a final"



    Fair chance Atticus and Mr Lover Lover are right as McLaughlin definitely was better than Bol this season. Still I am curious what they base their statements on. Hence I asked...




    Awsi Dogger:

    "Bol is terrific but she doesn't have more potential than McLaughlin. Not even close"

    "Bol may look great on that long striding run to the wire alongside aching Shamier Little. But substitute Sydney McLaughlin and the pecking order is reversed.

    I really don't see this changing."



    Awsi Dooger IMO has made several good posts, and I don't think he has shut the door completely for Bol to improve past a motivated and healthy McLaughlin, but he did shut the door ireversibly, it seems, regarding who has the most potential, which for me is weird. IMO it is just impossible to gauge the potential of Bol at this stage.

    For me Bol's situation now is somewhat similar to Warholm's late 2017. They both have experienced success after working the event seriously for just 2 years and I remember several people were somewhat disrespectful both towards Warholm's achievement and for sure his potential in the event.

    To me it seems precisely the same is happening now, just that the athlete is no longer Warholm but another Northern European coming from a country with not a ton of recent success in the event.Warholm's hurdling technique was borderline laughable in Rio2016. Much improved when he became world champion in London2017, but it should have been obvious that he had a decent chance of improving it substantially considering how little time he had seriously worked on the event. The same is true about Bol today.

    As I see it differently from the above posters, it makes me curious and I want to learn more about why people think there is no way Bol has; the most room for improvement, the best potenital in the event and no chance of beating a healthy and highly motivated McLaughlin.




    JimboJames:

    "She certainly has the talent to match Bol…putting it together will come, I’m sure."

    (Above was written about Shamier Little)

    Again a statement which does not really align with the facts as I see them. Bol has beaten Little everytime they have raced, even if Little has waaaaay more experience in the event. I cannot understand what the claim that Little's talent can match Bol's it is based on?


    If I have raised a false flag I will be the first to apologize. It has not been my intention.

    Leave a comment:


  • Conor Dary
    replied
    Originally posted by NotDutra5 View Post

    Is anyone saying that Bol can't potentially beat anyone or are we flying a false flag here?
    I think you nailed it...

    Leave a comment:


  • NotDutra5
    replied
    Originally posted by IloveFelix View Post


    What confuses me is that if we agree that Bol has a ton of issues she possibly can improve, why does that mean she cannot improve during the off-season and potentially beat McLaughlin at some point soon?
    Is anyone saying that Bol can't potentially beat anyone or are we flying a false flag here?

    Leave a comment:


  • JMysterio
    replied
    Originally posted by ATK View Post
    I'm not sure what the point is in connection to Bol and McLaughlin's potential improvement. Neither Bol or McLaughlin are 55,54 or 53 second hurdlers. They are all time greats and as fast as they are running, they will have to improve upon something if they want to either remain ahead (McLaughlin) or surpass (Bol) each other.

    One-off races are great sure, maybe form wont matter there per-say. But in the big races that matter and in this current era, unless you are far and above the rest, which neither of these current 3 ladies are from each other, form matters. McLaughlin lost in Doha 2019 because of poor form. She won in Tokyo 2021 because of slightly improved form. Dalilah Muhammad is by far the slowest of the 3 (over 400m and 200m) yet she makes up for it with her form and efficiency over the hurdles.
    I see nothing wrong with Bol's or SM's hurdling. The women's hurdles are only two and half feet high. Have you noticed how the men always have guys clipping the hurdles, sometimes to the point of tripping and falling but women do not at anywhere near the frequency? For women, it's get your steps down and run fast, hurdle form is probably the least of things to correct because the hurdles are so low.

    Looking at the Tokyo race it's obvious SM won because she had the fastest leg turnover down the stretch. DM went out very fast, SM and Bol were even until right before the 9th hurdle and were trailing DM and that's when SM started making up ground, pulling away from Bol and running down a struggling DM. I don't think form played into this race at all. It was speed that won.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdjBR_LeZCM

    Leave a comment:


  • ATK
    replied
    Originally posted by JMysterio View Post
    I acknowledge that but my point is there are days when your form doesn't matter. It's possible a 55 second hurdler has perfect form but is just slow. I mean there's a reason Sage Watson is just a field filler and I don't think it's her form.
    I'm not sure what the point is in connection to Bol and McLaughlin's potential improvement. Neither Bol or McLaughlin are 55,54 or 53 second hurdlers. They are all time greats and as fast as they are running, they will have to improve upon something if they want to either remain ahead (McLaughlin) or surpass (Bol) each other.

    One-off races are great sure, maybe form wont matter there per-say. But in the big races that matter and in this current era, unless you are far and above the rest, which neither of these current 3 ladies are from each other, form matters. McLaughlin lost in Doha 2019 because of poor form. She won in Tokyo 2021 because of slightly improved form. Dalilah Muhammad is by far the slowest of the 3 (over 400m and 200m) yet she makes up for it with her form and efficiency over the hurdles.

    Leave a comment:


  • JMysterio
    replied
    Originally posted by ATK View Post
    I wasn't talking about either of them vs Muhammad. My point was that both Bol and McLaughlin still have a very long way to go in terms of their hurdle form and efficiency so will have tons to improve on for years to come.
    I acknowledge that but my point is there are days when your form doesn't matter. It's possible a 55 second hurdler has perfect form but is just slow. I mean there's a reason Sage Watson is just a field filler and I don't think it's her form.

    Leave a comment:


  • ATK
    replied
    Originally posted by JMysterio View Post

    Bol did beat DM in Lausanne after the Olympics. As did Little. Certainly an off race for DM, but Bol ran a much tougher schedule in Tokyo and showed no effects. Likely an age factor there, but it shows that anyone is vulnerable.
    I wasn't talking about either of them vs Muhammad. My point was that both Bol and McLaughlin still have a very long way to go in terms of their hurdle form and efficiency so will have tons to improve on for years to come.

    Leave a comment:


  • IloveFelix
    replied
    Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
    Here is a depiction of something I mentioned the other day, that to threaten McLaughlin in forthcoming years Bol needs to improve her hurdling technique and take more risks, with lower clearance on the front foot. Right now Bol launches while McLaughlin skims. Sydney is more balanced with both legs nearer the same level while Bol concedes that her lead left leg gets too high simultaneous with her trailing right leg too low. It is kind of like downhill skiing in which air time over a hill looks spectacular but is costing you time.

    This is Bol from yesterday's race in Bellinzona:

    https://imgur.com/a/gADyzBT

    This is Sydney from the Olympic trials:

    https://imgur.com/a/0zKTFOK

    Not the identical camera angle but as close as I could find, using recent races and the same point of clearance using the same lead leg. Bol right now looks similar to Sydney three years ago at Kentucky, when her clearance was also too high but I'd say slightly lower than current Bol. And Bol herself is noticeably lower and better than one year ago.

    Sydney has used sprint hurdling to flatten out her technique to the point it's like a hybrid of the two events. She is really getting her foot on the ground quickly especially toward the end of the race. The other day I read an account of the Tokyo race from a hurdles expert. He said Muhammad had that race won other than Sydney ran the last three hurdles far superior than she'd ever done before.

    BTW, I hope I can use that upload site here. Strictly convenience for me.
    I posted the below a while ago, when I edited to correct a typo, it got flagged, so I decided to post it again. If that is bad somehow, GH. Let me know I i will obviously not do again.



    I like reading your post, Awsi. IMO you bring a lot of good insights. Still I am always a bit confused, as for me your posts always makes the case that McLaughlin has a superior technique to Bol. I agree even if I think Muhammad is better than both Bol and Mclaughlin with how she clears the hurdles.

    I read your posts as making the case that Bol has so much to work on. So many possible ways to improve and I agree with that. Really she should have many thing to improve in her technique as she has been hurdling a shorter time period than almost all the women she is competing against.

    What confuses me is that if we agree that Bol has a ton of issues she possibly can improve, why does that mean she cannot improve during the off-season and potentially beat McLaughlin at some point soon?

    Leave a comment:


  • IloveFelix
    replied
    Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post
    IloveFelix I think your question regarding why some think Benjamin could beat Warholm, but they don't think Bol will beat McLaughlin is clear. It's the same reason why many posters on here relished Gatlin's return and want/ed him to win: Benjamin and McLaughlin (and Gatlin) are American, and this is an American forum with mainly American posters. People will always favour their own and be subjective. Tis just life.

    As Bol is Dutch, and I have some Dutch ancestry (plus it's the UK's nearest neighbour) I'm a fan boy of Bol. I'm probably very subjective too. But one thing I could never do is boldly state "X athlete will never be beaten!" because I think that's pretty ridiculous in this day and age (no offence to anyone!)

    I genuinely cannot get my head round why some cannot see Bol's potential upside is greater than McLaughlins, though, when one considers their hurdling experience and Bol's much poorer technique. That's just common sense to me. That's where I feel bias & favouritism comes in.
    Your points are well taken, Wiederganger. Maybe you are right, however I am not ready to conclude the same way as you yet regarding "murkan bias" going against Bol, even if I see it as a clear possibility that posters can have national biases wherever they hail from. I know I can get affected by such a bias at times.

    Regarding the 400 hurdles women, I am not really sure who I like the best. Honestly I am probably a proper fanboi of all of them.

    I am so sick impressed by Dalilah Muhammad. The way she came back from illness to first perform outstandingly at the US Trials and than to step it up even more at the Tokyo Games. Just like Benjamin in the men's race it is unreal to produce such a time and yet have to walk away with the silver. Yes, I am aware maybe the shoes and/or track played a part, but no matter what the performances of Benjamin and Muhammad was IMO surreal. The way Muhammad delivered in Doha two years ago to keep McLaughlin at bay was also just insanely impressive IMO.

    Sydney McLaughlin I have been impressed with more or less from the day I learned about her at the US Trials in 2016 (I know I was slow to the party but she had not caught my eye before 2016). Her IG-video made me more of a fan than ever because that stuff is exactly what I want me kids to see and get. Even as you are a star and a monster-success it is far from sure that life is easy. I truly wish more stars would post such videos instead of always glossing over any issue.

    Femke Bol I know less about to be honest. Still I find her massively impressive and I think it is probable that she will move on to do even greater things in the years to come.

    I am less of a fan of Shamier Little even if find her very interesting. I do not dislike her at all though.

    I don't have any Bol bias. Maybe I have a Warholm bias, but if I do it has to be rather small, because I really like Rai Benjamin too and I am compelled by McMaster's story;

    Struggling with injuries in college, things falling in place working with coach Xavier "Dag" Samuels, but losing his coach as he fell of a roof and died during hurricane Irma.

    Regarding the "Bol never to beat a healthy and motivated McLaughlin discussion", I suspect biases can be at play. However, it is also possible that there is something I miss or just don't get. IMO it makes sense to give everyone the benefit of doubt and I am always happy when/if others extend the same courtesy to me.

    To be honest I have not spotted any Bol-bias in your posts, Wiederganger, but I will make sure to read more carefully going forward
    Last edited by IloveFelix; 09-16-2021, 10:42 AM.

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  • IloveFelix
    replied
    Originally posted by cajun5150 View Post

    And Sydney is not young
    They are both young. Wish I could be 21-22 again, it was truly a brilliant time. I think the six months between them is not of any consequence even if I think Tuariki's post, about performance by age, were brilliant and good fun.

    The points I was trying to make was not that Bol was younger, but rather that such young athletes are IMO more likely to develop from one season to the next than older athletes.

    As I think both athlete's are more likely to develop than athletes further along in the career, I put less stock in the advantage McLaughlin currently holds, than if the athletes would have been as an example 27. Maybe I am wrong about that, but that was my line of thinking.

    The second point was that I feel that Bol has better possibilities to improve her technique as she has spent less time on it yet.
    Last edited by IloveFelix; 09-16-2021, 10:42 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • Wiederganger
    replied
    IloveFelix I think your question regarding why some think Benjamin could beat Warholm, but they don't think Bol will beat McLaughlin is clear. It's the same reason why many posters on here relished Gatlin's return and want/ed him to win: Benjamin and McLaughlin (and Gatlin) are American, and this is an American forum with mainly American posters. People will always favour their own and be subjective. Tis just life.

    As Bol is Dutch, and I have some Dutch ancestry (plus it's the UK's nearest neighbour) I'm a fan boy of Bol. I'm probably very subjective too. But one thing I could never do is boldly state "X athlete will never be beaten!" because I think that's pretty ridiculous in this day and age (no offence to anyone!)

    I genuinely cannot get my head round why some cannot see Bol's potential upside is greater than McLaughlins, though, when one considers their hurdling experience and Bol's much poorer technique. That's just common sense to me. That's where I feel bias & favouritism comes in.

    Leave a comment:


  • IloveFelix
    replied
    Originally posted by gm View Post
    IloveFelix

    My response was to JMysterio's comment about Bol -- "I think her upside is very positive, they've built her strength sufficiently and as she is young that speed will improve as will her experience in running the event."

    I simply replied that McLaughlin's flat speed was greater than Bol and I doubted Bol would ever be faster in that way.

    I should have spelled it out, I suppose, that "flat speed" to me means the 100/200.

    Nowhere have I said that Bol can't beat McLaughlin in the 400H. It could happen. It likely WILL happen at some point.
    Yes, I for one misunderstood your comment about flat speed. As we are discussing the 400 hurdles, it made sense to me that you were talking about the 400 flat when you referred to flat speed. Good that you clarified.

    Still I am a bit puzzled, why did you refer to the 100/200 speed in the first place? Do you think it is relevant for Bol's chances of beating McLaughlin at some point?

    My impression was that you were part of the crowd that find it unlikely that Bol possibly can beat McLaughlin during the next few years. This was caused by your statements about flat speed combined with your statement about prodigies. However, I have not written that you have said that "Bol cannot beat McLaughlin in the 400H".

    My only question was, why it is relevant for the discussion that Mclaughlin has better 100/200 speed. I am not saying it is not relevant, just trying to better understand how you reason.
    Last edited by IloveFelix; 09-16-2021, 11:19 AM.

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  • IloveFelix
    replied
    Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
    Here is a depiction of something I mentioned the other day, that to threaten McLaughlin in forthcoming years Bol needs to improve her hurdling technique and take more risks, with lower clearance on the front foot. Right now Bol launches while McLaughlin skims. Sydney is more balanced with both legs nearer the same level while Bol concedes that her lead left leg gets too high simultaneous with her trailing right leg too low. It is kind of like downhill skiing in which air time over a hill looks spectacular but is costing you time.

    This is Bol from yesterday's race in Bellinzona:

    https://imgur.com/a/gADyzBT

    This is Sydney from the Olympic trials:

    https://imgur.com/a/0zKTFOK

    Not the identical camera angle but as close as I could find, using recent races and the same point of clearance using the same lead leg. Bol right now looks similar to Sydney three years ago at Kentucky, when her clearance was also too high but I'd say slightly lower than current Bol. And Bol herself is noticeably lower and better than one year ago.

    Sydney has used sprint hurdling to flatten out her technique to the point it's like a hybrid of the two events. She is really getting her foot on the ground quickly especially toward the end of the race. The other day I read an account of the Tokyo race from a hurdles expert. He said Muhammad had that race won other than Sydney ran the last three hurdles far superior than she'd ever done before.

    BTW, I hope I can use that upload site here. Strictly convenience for me.
    I like reading your post, Awsi. IMO you bring a lot of good insights. Still I am always a bit confused, as for me your posts always makes the case that McLaughlin has a superior technique to Bol. I agree even if I think Muhammad is better than both Bol and Mclaughlin with how she clears the hurdles.

    I read your posts as making the case that Bol has so much to work on. So many possible ways to improve and I agree with that. Really she should have many thing to improve in her technique as she has been hurdling a shorter time period than almost all the women she is competing against.

    What confuses me is that if we agree that Bol has a ton of issues she possibly can improve, why does that mean she cannot improve during the off-season and potentially beat McLaughlin at some point soon?
    Last edited by IloveFelix; 09-16-2021, 10:44 AM.

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