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  • #31
    Originally posted by 79 View Post
    I've been a little bit too much optimistic about Athing Mu's limits in the 400m yesterday, I think. I see a 48"50 more than an unrealistic 48"10... Too much French wine effect. 😉
    She's still so young. I can easily see 48.0 with more strength work. She is a uniquely gifted athlete. There seems to be lots more there.

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    • #32
      Originally posted by cigar95 View Post
      Years ago, in the Red/Blue/Gold/Green/Black Book, T&FN used to publish an article on projecting possible times at other distances from knowing an athlete's PR at two others. (*Two* was crucial - we often here try to do it using *one*, but that's obviously a fool's errand.) Maybe the article is still published - are those books still in print?
      There is no such article in the Big Gold Book, 3rd printing (updated), 2011.

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      • #33
        Originally posted by aaronk View Post

        My predictions above aren't for tomorrow or 2022, or even 2023!
        First, she'll most likely stick to the 400--800 events for another 2 years or more, maybe dabbling in the 1000 or 200 and 600.

        But many agree she's capable of at least 49 & 1:52, right?
        Now check out the slowdown rate for many middle distance runners.
        Ten to 12 seconds is a very common slowdown per 880 in a mile!

        Look at the top 2 women in the 1500--Hassan and Kipyegon.
        Neither have run as fast an 800 as Mu--about 1 to 1.5 seconds slower, yet both are running 3:51's for the 1500.
        Which amounts to an easy sub-4:10---maybe 4:08!!

        So why couldn't Mu---given solid mile training, health etc--run FASTER than those 2??
        If (when??) she runs that 1:52, then add 10 to 12 seconds per 880, and you've got a 4:06 mile---and a 3:48 1500 enroute!1
        It's simple math, with a lot of history tossed in the mix!
        You are assuming that the slow down rate between 800 and 1500/mile for Mu would be the same as that for a couple of women whose slow down rates between 400 and 800 will be much smaller than Mu's.
        Last edited by Trickstat; 09-24-2021, 05:19 PM.

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        • #34
          Originally posted by aaronk View Post

          My predictions above aren't for tomorrow or 2022, or even 2023!
          First, she'll most likely stick to the 400--800 events for another 2 years or more, maybe dabbling in the 1000 or 200 and 600.

          But many agree she's capable of at least 49 & 1:52, right?
          Now check out the slowdown rate for many middle distance runners.
          Ten to 12 seconds is a very common slowdown per 880 in a mile!

          Look at the top 2 women in the 1500--Hassan and Kipyegon.
          Neither have run as fast an 800 as Mu--about 1 to 1.5 seconds slower, yet both are running 3:51's for the 1500.
          Which amounts to an easy sub-4:10---maybe 4:08!!

          So why couldn't Mu---given solid mile training, health etc--run FASTER than those 2??
          If (when??) she runs that 1:52, then add 10 to 12 seconds per 880, and you've got a 4:06 mile---and a 3:48 1500 enroute!1
          It's simple math, with a lot of history tossed in the mix!
          I don't think Mu is a 1500m runner anywhere near the ability she has over 800m/400m no matter how much she would train for it.

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          • #35
            Originally posted by Trickstat View Post

            You are assuming that the slow down rate between 800 and 1500/mile for Mu would be the same as that for a couple of women whose slow down rates between 400 and 800 will be much smaller than Mu's.
            Yep, Mu would look like a giant standing next to Hassam and Kipyegon (10 kg heavier?) and the 1500/mile demands a lot more aerobic power than the 800.

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            • #36
              Originally posted by jazzcyclist View Post
              Yep, Mu would look like a giant standing next to Hassam and Kipyegon (10 kg heavier?) and the 1500/mile demands a lot more aerobic power than the 800.
              It has long been a given that every athlete has a sweet spot (length of race) and differing ranges around that sweet spot.
              Right now the spot for Mu seems 600m, but we have insufficient data on her. It could be 1000m or 1200m or even 1500m, with tremendous range (Hassan and Kipyegon spring to mind).

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