Question about Athing Mu's limits...

[Atticus]

I've been a little bit too much optimistic about Athing Mu's limits in the 400m yesterday, I think. I see a 48"50 more than an unrealistic 48"10... Too much French wine effect. 😉

She's still so young. I can easily see 48.0 with more strength work. She is a uniquely gifted athlete. There seems to be lots more there.

[Davidokun]

Years ago, in the Red/Blue/Gold/Green/Black Book, T&FN used to publish an article on projecting possible times at other distances from knowing an athlete's PR at two others. (*Two* was crucial - we often here try to do it using *one*, but that's obviously a fool's errand.) Maybe the article is still published - are those books still in print?

There is no such article in the Big Gold Book, 3rd printing (updated), 2011.

[Trickstat]

My predictions above aren't for tomorrow or 2022, or even 2023!
First, she'll most likely stick to the 400--800 events for another 2 years or more, maybe dabbling in the 1000 or 200 and 600.

But many agree she's capable of at least 49 & 1:52, right?
Now check out the slowdown rate for many middle distance runners.
Ten to 12 seconds is a very common slowdown per 880 in a mile!

Look at the top 2 women in the 1500--Hassan and Kipyegon.
Neither have run as fast an 800 as Mu--about 1 to 1.5 seconds slower, yet both are running 3:51's for the 1500.
Which amounts to an easy sub-4:10---maybe 4:08!!

So why couldn't Mu---given solid mile training, health etc--run FASTER than those 2??
If (when??) she runs that 1:52, then add 10 to 12 seconds per 880, and you've got a 4:06 mile---and a 3:48 1500 enroute!1
It's simple math, with a lot of history tossed in the mix!

You are assuming that the slow down rate between 800 and 1500/mile for Mu would be the same as that for a couple of women whose slow down rates between 400 and 800 will be much smaller than Mu's.

[NotDutra5]

My predictions above aren't for tomorrow or 2022, or even 2023!
First, she'll most likely stick to the 400--800 events for another 2 years or more, maybe dabbling in the 1000 or 200 and 600.

But many agree she's capable of at least 49 & 1:52, right?
Now check out the slowdown rate for many middle distance runners.
Ten to 12 seconds is a very common slowdown per 880 in a mile!

Look at the top 2 women in the 1500--Hassan and Kipyegon.
Neither have run as fast an 800 as Mu--about 1 to 1.5 seconds slower, yet both are running 3:51's for the 1500.
Which amounts to an easy sub-4:10---maybe 4:08!!

So why couldn't Mu---given solid mile training, health etc--run FASTER than those 2??
If (when??) she runs that 1:52, then add 10 to 12 seconds per 880, and you've got a 4:06 mile---and a 3:48 1500 enroute!1
It's simple math, with a lot of history tossed in the mix!

I don't think Mu is a 1500m runner anywhere near the ability she has over 800m/400m no matter how much she would train for it.

[jazzcyclist]

You are assuming that the slow down rate between 800 and 1500/mile for Mu would be the same as that for a couple of women whose slow down rates between 400 and 800 will be much smaller than Mu's.

Yep, Mu would look like a giant standing next to Hassam and Kipyegon (10 kg heavier?) and the 1500/mile demands a lot more aerobic power than the 800.

[Atticus]

Yep, Mu would look like a giant standing next to Hassam and Kipyegon (10 kg heavier?) and the 1500/mile demands a lot more aerobic power than the 800.

It has long been a given that every athlete has a sweet spot (length of race) and differing ranges around that sweet spot.
Right now the spot for Mu seems 600m, but we have insufficient data on her. It could be 1000m or 1200m or even 1500m, with tremendous range (Hassan and Kipyegon spring to mind).

[TN1965]

The Present is a Gift, and Athing Mu is Making the Most of It

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/pres...110008480.html

She also wasn't shy about declaring her intent to set the world record for 800 meters one day, which was set at 1:53.28 in 1983 by Jarmila Kratochvilova of Czechoslovakia.

[CookyMonzta]

The Present is a Gift, and Athing Mu is Making the Most of It

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/pres...110008480.html

She also wasn't shy about declaring her intent to set the world record for 800 meters one day, which was set at 1:53.28 in 1983 by Jarmila Kratochvilova of Czechoslovakia.

1:24.44 at 600 at last year's Prefontaine, she looked as if she was aiming for it right there. A 28.8 would have done the trick. More practice at that speed is what she needs. The sooner she's able to kick repeatedly after a fast 600 (though not necessarily this fast), she'll be able to finish fast in an 800, no matter how fast her first 600 is. I'm thinking she still would have gone 1:55.04, if her first 600 was 1:26.xx.

[aaronk]

One thing's for sure---she can run the Mile a LOT faster than her 4:37 debut!!
LOL

[Awsi Dooger]

I hadn't seen this thread until today. The forecasts are borderline ridiculous, IMO. Great talent but she does it via frame and stride length. Those variables are already contributing to her current level and are mostly maxed out. I don't see how she improves her turnover rate or natural athleticism to threaten most of the numbers proposed here.

Technical events like 400 hurdles offered vast improvement opportunities given fewer strides between barriers, shaving hundreds in flight, plus the bouncy shoes. We shouldn't wrongly apply that to more standard events.

[Atticus]

Great talent but she does it via frame and stride length. Those variables are already contributing to her current level and are mostly maxed out.

I'm (very) sorry, but that's a very silly idea. Of course she will mature, and get faster and stronger, as her training is designed to accomplish.

[SoCal45]

I hadn't seen this thread until today. The forecasts are borderline ridiculous, IMO. Great talent but she does it via frame and stride length. Those variables are already contributing to her current level and are mostly maxed out. I don't see how she improves her turnover rate or natural athleticism to threaten most of the numbers proposed here.

Technical events like 400 hurdles offered vast improvement opportunities given fewer strides between barriers, shaving hundreds in flight, plus the bouncy shoes. We shouldn't wrongly apply that to more standard events.

you are hinting that a teen ager of extraordinary talent is maxed out? did you feel the same way about Jakob I when he was putting up some pretty decent marks as a teen ager?

[aaronk]

I admit to checking out Let's Run's forum pages every now and then!
Well, lo and behold, someone began a thread yesterday there--now SIX pages long--centering on Mu's potential qt 1500 meters.
The first post states she can break the American Record (3:54.99)!!

While a few comments are standard L-R crazy, several provide some logic and reason!
And While the AR may be off the table, I do agree she can run MUCH faster than she has--at the 1500 or Mile!
Given serious training and desire to run fast at those distances!. that is!

Best post lists the Age 19 PR's (1500) of 5 or 6 American women who went on to run sub-4's, win medals, etc at 1500-Mile!
Mu is faster than all of them---byt many seconds!!

[NotDutra5]

Mu appears to be much more of a 400/800 runner than a 800/1500 runner. She can certainly run a lot faster over 1500m than she has but I'd doubt she'd be anything better than 4 flat which is good but may not be good enough to make an international team and could hurt her other events with the training required. So it would make little sense, to me, to head off in that direction during her prime years.

[Wiederganger]

I get what Awsi Dooger is saying. I don't agree she wont get a lot better, but her limb length is her definite advantage, and she cant make them any longer 😁.

Mu is definitely more a 400/800 athlete than 800/1500.

But why speculate and predict outlandish performances for Mu in the 1500, and not, say, Keely Hodgkinson, who is the same age as Mu, who is also a 1:55 woman, and who last ran a 1500m in 2017, and was faster than Mu that year (4:30 for KH v 4:33 for AM)? Hodgkinson seems a more much natural fit for the 1500m than Mu.