Question about Athing Mu's limits...

[Atticus]

But why speculate and predict outlandish performances for Mu in the 1500, and not, say, Keely Hodgkinson

I know, I know! . . . because it's a thread about Athing Mu.

[NotDutra5]

I get what Awsi Dooger is saying. I don't agree she wont get a lot better, but her limb length is her definite advantage, and she cant make them any longer 😁.

Mu is definitely more a 400/800 athlete than 800/1500.

But why speculate and predict outlandish performances for Mu in the 1500, and not, say, Keely Hodgkinson, who is the same age as Mu, who is also a 1:55 woman, and who last ran a 1500m in 2017, and was faster than Mu that year (4:30 for KH v 4:33 for AM)? Hodgkinson seems a more much natural fit for the 1500m than Mu.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and speculate that a thread with the subject line "question about Keely Hodgkinson's limits..." would get more responses regarding Ms. Hodgkinson.

[aaronk]

FLASH!
BULLETIN!!

Athing Mu has switched to the Wanamaker Mile from the 800 at Millrose!!!

[KevinR]

Very interesting turn of events. Eager to see how that plays out!

[SoCal45]

FLASH!
BULLETIN!!

Athing Mu has switched to the Wanamaker Mile from the 800 at Millrose!!!

Over/under: by how much she sets a PR. I say she will run 4:25...still 5 secs off AR

[Atticus]

Over/under: by how much she sets a PR.

At least 8 seconds, as she's going under 4:30!

[Awsi Dooger]

I get what Awsi Dooger is saying. I don't agree she wont get a lot better, but her limb length is her definite advantage, and she cant make them any longer 😁.

Mu is definitely more a 400/800 athlete than 800/1500.

But why speculate and predict outlandish performances for Mu in the 1500, and not, say, Keely Hodgkinson, who is the same age as Mu, who is also a 1:55 woman, and who last ran a 1500m in 2017, and was faster than Mu that year (4:30 for KH v 4:33 for AM)? Hodgkinson seems a more much natural fit for the 1500m than Mu.

I think she'll get better. The projections in a thread like this are typically overblown, regardless of sport. I'll say not that much and take my chances. I spent 24 years in Las Vegas as a sports bettor. Within a couple of months my nickname was the Undertaker. I'll play the under and give the sportsbook the requirement to beat me. As much as I appreciate Scott Van Pelt his Bad Beats segment is laughable in that it gives the impression that unders seldom cash. Meanwhile virtually every successful sports bettor plays considerably more unders than overs. It can feel like stealing especially in basketball.

Likewise when Las Vegas sportsbooks all were independently run instead of the disgusting satellite hubs per today, this type of thing would play out all the time. The guys behind the counter would get bored and throw up some homemade prop. And almost without exception it was too high. They'd throw up Dan Marino's yardage total for the following season, or a home run over/under for some hot hitter, and so forth. All you had to do was play toward normalcy and grind out way ahead. I remember countless times it was so far off my friend Dave and I were pounding the under so many times they'd be stunned and take it off the board. Then they'd put it back up and often it was still too high. The Imperial Palace actually banned Dave from the sportsbook because he had no finesse and would stand at the counter badgering them about when they would restore the number. I always tried to tell him to shut up and be patient.

I am conditioned toward this type of thinking. That's what I'm saying. If I'm wrong about Athing Mu it won't bother me. Using the same criteria I'll come out ahead far more often than not. They didn't like me on SwimSwam when I insisted 2016 would be Katie Ledecky's peak. Heck, there are still posters there insisting she'll break her 400 record in 2024.

At age 27. Fine. I'll know which way to go with that one.

Mu always runs from the front. Her 48.32 split in the 4 x 400 was lane 1 all the way around. To set records approaching the ones hyped in this thread she'll need to become even more of a dedicated frontrunner. For whatever reason she wasn't fully committed to doing that in Tokyo, unlike Prefontaine weeks later. Meanwhile as Rudisha and Van Niekerk and Warholm and McLaughlin, etc. have demonstrated you need to go for it in the Olympics. That's where your greatest adrenaline and upside will be, unless she becomes a time trial specialist like Dibaba.

[gm]

Betting on humans...

[Wiederganger]

I think she'll get better. The projections in a thread like this are typically overblown, regardless of sport.

Agreed.

Mu always runs from the front. Her 48.32 split in the 4 x 400 was lane 1 all the way around. To set records approaching the ones hyped in this thread she'll need to become even more of a dedicated frontrunner.

I said prior to Tokyo that it would be 'interesting' to see what happens if Mu were to get crowded by the other women. With her long limbs and inexperience at that level, I wondered how that would play out. Instead, she effectively front ran pretty much every round and no one put up a significant challenge. Her competitors need to not be in awe of her - which they were and will continue to be - and come up with some tactics to beat her. You can bet if those pesky Russians weren't blanket banned there would have been some sort of team tactics to not let her dominate. But she is allowed to run wide out the outside of lane one and meander her way at her leisure. They need to crowd her and box her in, it's the only way I can see her getting beaten.

In her upcoming mile race, it will be more like that, with her crowded. I'm intrigued to see how that plays out. The fact that she is running over distance indoors leads me to firmly believe it will be the 800m in Oregon, she will not be tackling the 400m individual.

Re Hodgkinson, I feel she will progress to 1500m running herself, but not yet, in a few years.

[aaronk]

She's entered in a 600 (meters?) race at the Baldy Castillo meet today!
She CAN break the WR, but I'm guessing something like 1:25!
No serious opponents!!

[aaronk]

She ran 1:24.13 for 600 at Baldy Cstillo!
2nd was about 4 seconds behind!!
Great season opener!!

[RunningInCircles]

Athing Mu just ran 1:24.13 in the 600. Pretty good for her first outdoor race.

Mu must have also inspired Texas A&M's Avi'Tal Wilson-Perteete, because she ran a quick 1:28.02 in the same race, much better than she ran indoors. Maybe they should change their nickname to "600 Meter University"?

[Atticus]

Athing Mu just ran 1:24.13 in the 600.

Not bad. Ajee' Wilson's AR is 1:22.39. Mu's is #2.

[CookyMonzta]

Athing Mu just ran 1:24.13 in the 600. Pretty good for her first outdoor race.

Mu must have also inspired Texas A&M's Avi'Tal Wilson-Perteete, because she ran a quick 1:28.02 in the same race, much better than she ran indoors. Maybe they should change their nickname to "600 Meter University"?

Mu ran just about that fast in her 1:55.04 at Eugene last year. If she runs that fast en route this summer, I doubt she will run out of gas so easily, and Kratochvílová will definitely go down. Mu has Olympic gold; she has nothing to lose by going after the WR now.

[Juicy News]

Athing Mu just ran 1:24.13 in the 600. Pretty good for her first outdoor race.

Mu must have also inspired Texas A&M's Avi'Tal Wilson-Perteete, because she ran a quick 1:28.02 in the same race, much better than she ran indoors. Maybe they should change their nickname to "600 Meter University"?

Video:

https://twitter.com/aggietfxc/status/1505340468300681216?s=21