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    Wiederganger
    Senior Member

  • Wiederganger
    replied
    Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post

    I think she'll get better. The projections in a thread like this are typically overblown, regardless of sport.
    Agreed.

    Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
    Mu always runs from the front. Her 48.32 split in the 4 x 400 was lane 1 all the way around. To set records approaching the ones hyped in this thread she'll need to become even more of a dedicated frontrunner.
    I said prior to Tokyo that it would be 'interesting' to see what happens if Mu were to get crowded by the other women. With her long limbs and inexperience at that level, I wondered how that would play out. Instead, she effectively front ran pretty much every round and no one put up a significant challenge. Her competitors need to not be in awe of her - which they were and will continue to be - and come up with some tactics to beat her. You can bet if those pesky Russians weren't blanket banned there would have been some sort of team tactics to not let her dominate. But she is allowed to run wide out the outside of lane one and meander her way at her leisure. They need to crowd her and box her in, it's the only way I can see her getting beaten.

    In her upcoming mile race, it will be more like that, with her crowded. I'm intrigued to see how that plays out. The fact that she is running over distance indoors leads me to firmly believe it will be the 800m in Oregon, she will not be tackling the 400m individual.

    Re Hodgkinson, I feel she will progress to 1500m running herself, but not yet, in a few years.
    Wiederganger
    Senior Member
    Last edited by Wiederganger; 01-25-2022, 08:28 AM.

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  • gm
    Senior Member

  • gm
    replied
    Betting on humans...

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  • Awsi Dooger
    Member

  • Awsi Dooger
    replied
    Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post
    I get what Awsi Dooger is saying. I don't agree she wont get a lot better, but her limb length is her definite advantage, and she cant make them any longer 😁.

    Mu is definitely more a 400/800 athlete than 800/1500.

    But why speculate and predict outlandish performances for Mu in the 1500, and not, say, Keely Hodgkinson, who is the same age as Mu, who is also a 1:55 woman, and who last ran a 1500m in 2017, and was faster than Mu that year (4:30 for KH v 4:33 for AM)? Hodgkinson seems a more much natural fit for the 1500m than Mu.
    I think she'll get better. The projections in a thread like this are typically overblown, regardless of sport. I'll say not that much and take my chances. I spent 24 years in Las Vegas as a sports bettor. Within a couple of months my nickname was the Undertaker. I'll play the under and give the sportsbook the requirement to beat me. As much as I appreciate Scott Van Pelt his Bad Beats segment is laughable in that it gives the impression that unders seldom cash. Meanwhile virtually every successful sports bettor plays considerably more unders than overs. It can feel like stealing especially in basketball.

    Likewise when Las Vegas sportsbooks all were independently run instead of the disgusting satellite hubs per today, this type of thing would play out all the time. The guys behind the counter would get bored and throw up some homemade prop. And almost without exception it was too high. They'd throw up Dan Marino's yardage total for the following season, or a home run over/under for some hot hitter, and so forth. All you had to do was play toward normalcy and grind out way ahead. I remember countless times it was so far off my friend Dave and I were pounding the under so many times they'd be stunned and take it off the board. Then they'd put it back up and often it was still too high. The Imperial Palace actually banned Dave from the sportsbook because he had no finesse and would stand at the counter badgering them about when they would restore the number. I always tried to tell him to shut up and be patient.

    I am conditioned toward this type of thinking. That's what I'm saying. If I'm wrong about Athing Mu it won't bother me. Using the same criteria I'll come out ahead far more often than not. They didn't like me on SwimSwam when I insisted 2016 would be Katie Ledecky's peak. Heck, there are still posters there insisting she'll break her 400 record in 2024.

    At age 27. Fine. I'll know which way to go with that one.

    Mu always runs from the front. Her 48.32 split in the 4 x 400 was lane 1 all the way around. To set records approaching the ones hyped in this thread she'll need to become even more of a dedicated frontrunner. For whatever reason she wasn't fully committed to doing that in Tokyo, unlike Prefontaine weeks later. Meanwhile as Rudisha and Van Niekerk and Warholm and McLaughlin, etc. have demonstrated you need to go for it in the Olympics. That's where your greatest adrenaline and upside will be, unless she becomes a time trial specialist like Dibaba.

    Leave a comment:

  • Atticus
    Senior Member

  • Atticus
    replied
    Originally posted by SoCal45 View Post
    Over/under: by how much she sets a PR.
    At least 8 seconds, as she's going under 4:30!

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  • SoCal45
    Senior Member

  • SoCal45
    replied
    Originally posted by aaronk View Post
    FLASH!
    BULLETIN!!

    Athing Mu has switched to the Wanamaker Mile from the 800 at Millrose!!!
    Over/under: by how much she sets a PR. I say she will run 4:25...still 5 secs off AR
    SoCal45
    Senior Member
    Last edited by SoCal45; 01-25-2022, 12:20 AM.

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  • KevinR
    Senior Member

  • KevinR
    replied
    Very interesting turn of events. Eager to see how that plays out!

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  • aaronk
    Senior Member

  • aaronk
    replied
    FLASH!
    BULLETIN!!

    Athing Mu has switched to the Wanamaker Mile from the 800 at Millrose!!!

    Leave a comment:

  • NotDutra5
    Senior Member

  • NotDutra5
    replied
    Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post
    I get what Awsi Dooger is saying. I don't agree she wont get a lot better, but her limb length is her definite advantage, and she cant make them any longer 😁.

    Mu is definitely more a 400/800 athlete than 800/1500.

    But why speculate and predict outlandish performances for Mu in the 1500, and not, say, Keely Hodgkinson, who is the same age as Mu, who is also a 1:55 woman, and who last ran a 1500m in 2017, and was faster than Mu that year (4:30 for KH v 4:33 for AM)? Hodgkinson seems a more much natural fit for the 1500m than Mu.
    I'm going to go out on a limb here and speculate that a thread with the subject line "question about Keely Hodgkinson's limits..." would get more responses regarding Ms. Hodgkinson.

    Leave a comment:

  • Atticus
    Senior Member

  • Atticus
    replied
    Originally posted by Wiederganger View Post
    But why speculate and predict outlandish performances for Mu in the 1500, and not, say, Keely Hodgkinson
    I know, I know! . . . because it's a thread about Athing Mu.

    Leave a comment:

  • Wiederganger
    Senior Member

  • Wiederganger
    replied
    I get what Awsi Dooger is saying. I don't agree she wont get a lot better, but her limb length is her definite advantage, and she cant make them any longer 😁.

    Mu is definitely more a 400/800 athlete than 800/1500.

    But why speculate and predict outlandish performances for Mu in the 1500, and not, say, Keely Hodgkinson, who is the same age as Mu, who is also a 1:55 woman, and who last ran a 1500m in 2017, and was faster than Mu that year (4:30 for KH v 4:33 for AM)? Hodgkinson seems a more much natural fit for the 1500m than Mu.

    Leave a comment:

  • NotDutra5
    Senior Member

  • NotDutra5
    replied
    Mu appears to be much more of a 400/800 runner than a 800/1500 runner. She can certainly run a lot faster over 1500m than she has but I'd doubt she'd be anything better than 4 flat which is good but may not be good enough to make an international team and could hurt her other events with the training required. So it would make little sense, to me, to head off in that direction during her prime years.

    Leave a comment:

  • aaronk
    Senior Member

  • aaronk
    replied
    I admit to checking out Let's Run's forum pages every now and then!
    Well, lo and behold, someone began a thread yesterday there--now SIX pages long--centering on Mu's potential qt 1500 meters.
    The first post states she can break the American Record (3:54.99)!!

    While a few comments are standard L-R crazy, several provide some logic and reason!
    And While the AR may be off the table, I do agree she can run MUCH faster than she has--at the 1500 or Mile!
    Given serious training and desire to run fast at those distances!. that is!

    Best post lists the Age 19 PR's (1500) of 5 or 6 American women who went on to run sub-4's, win medals, etc at 1500-Mile!
    Mu is faster than all of them---byt many seconds!!

    Leave a comment:

  • SoCal45
    Senior Member

  • SoCal45
    replied
    Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
    I hadn't seen this thread until today. The forecasts are borderline ridiculous, IMO. Great talent but she does it via frame and stride length. Those variables are already contributing to her current level and are mostly maxed out. I don't see how she improves her turnover rate or natural athleticism to threaten most of the numbers proposed here.

    Technical events like 400 hurdles offered vast improvement opportunities given fewer strides between barriers, shaving hundreds in flight, plus the bouncy shoes. We shouldn't wrongly apply that to more standard events.
    you are hinting that a teen ager of extraordinary talent is maxed out? did you feel the same way about Jakob I when he was putting up some pretty decent marks as a teen ager?

    Leave a comment:

  • Atticus
    Senior Member

  • Atticus
    replied
    Originally posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
    Great talent but she does it via frame and stride length. Those variables are already contributing to her current level and are mostly maxed out.
    I'm (very) sorry, but that's a very silly idea. Of course she will mature, and get faster and stronger, as her training is designed to accomplish.

    Leave a comment:

  • Awsi Dooger
    Member

  • Awsi Dooger
    replied
    I hadn't seen this thread until today. The forecasts are borderline ridiculous, IMO. Great talent but she does it via frame and stride length. Those variables are already contributing to her current level and are mostly maxed out. I don't see how she improves her turnover rate or natural athleticism to threaten most of the numbers proposed here.

    Technical events like 400 hurdles offered vast improvement opportunities given fewer strides between barriers, shaving hundreds in flight, plus the bouncy shoes. We shouldn't wrongly apply that to more standard events.

    Leave a comment:

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